Prices in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), were flat in October, for the third time in the past four months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Chief Regional Economist Martin Kohli said that the index was influenced by declining energy prices and rising food prices. (Data in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Accordingly, month-to-month changes may reflect the impact of seasonal influences.)

Over the year, the CPI-U advanced 1.5 percent. The index for all items less food and energy increased 2.1 percent. (See table A and chart 1.) Price increases for shelter drove the 12-month change in both indexes. (See table 1.)

Food

The food index increased 0.5 percent after inching up 0.1 in September. Prices for food at home jumped 0.9 percent, with higher prices recorded in five of the six grocery groups. Coffee; lettuce; and rice, pasta, cornmeal were among the groceries with price increases in October. In contrast, prices for food away from home ticked down 0.1 percent.

Over the year, the food index advanced 2.0 percent. Away-from-home food prices rose 2.9 percent, and at-home food prices increased 1.3 percent.

Energy

The energy index dropped 1.6 percent after declining 1.7 percent for two consecutive months. Prices for household energy fell 1.9 percent following a 0.6-percent rise in September. The downturn was largely attributable to a seasonal decline in electricity prices (-5.5 percent). Price increases for natural gas (2.6 percent) tempered the decline. Consumer prices also decreased for gasoline (-1.0 percent), a fifth consecutive decline.   

For the year ended in October 2019, the energy index fell 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month decline in over three years. Gasoline prices dropped 9.9 percent. Household energy prices were down 3.1 percent—a 5.9-percent decline in electricity prices was partially offset by a 5.6-percent rise in natural gas prices.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October. Falling prices for lodging away from home drove a 0.3-percent decline in shelter prices. Owners’ equivalent rent and residential rent were little changed. Other declining categories included apparel (-1.4 percent) and household furnishings and operations (-0.9 percent). Offsetting the price declines were rising prices for recreation (3.2 percent, with higher admissions), medical care (0.2 percent), and other goods and services (0.5 percent).

From October 2018 to October 2019, the index for all items less food and energy increased 2.1 percent. A 2.1-percent increase in shelter prices included a 2.9-percent rise in residential rent and a 1.8-percent increase in owners’ equivalent rent. Medical care prices rose 4.9 percent, and recreation prices advanced 4.3 percent. A 4.3-percent rise in prices for tuition, other school fees, and childcare contributed to a 2.9-percent increase in prices for education and communication.

Table A. New York-Newark-Jersey City CPI-U 1-month and 12-month percent changes (not seasonally adjusted)

Month	2014		2015		2016		2017		2018		2019
	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month
January	0.9	1.9	0.1	-0.5	0.2	0.8	0.6	2.5	0.4	1.4	0.5	1.6
February	-0.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	2.6	0.5	1.7	0.2	1.3
March	0.4	1.3	0.2	-0.1	0.2	0.7	0.0	2.3	0.0	1.7	0.3	1.6
April	0.0	1.6	0.1	0.0	0.4	1.0	0.1	2.0	0.3	1.9	0.3	1.6
May	0.5	1.9	0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.9	0.1	1.8	0.4	2.2	0.2	1.5
June	0.0	1.7	0.2	0.1	0.2(R)	0.9(R)	0.2	1.8	0.1	2.0	0.3	1.7
July	0.1	1.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	1.0	-0.2	1.6	0.0	2.2	0.0	1.7
August	-0.2	1.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	1.1	0.2	1.7	0.1	2.2	0.2	1.8
September	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.0	0.5	2.1	0.4	2.0	0.0	1.4
October	-0.2	1.3	-0.1	0.4	0.1	1.2	-0.2	1.8	-0.1	2.0	0.0	1.5
November	-0.4	0.8	-0.2	0.6	0.2	1.6	-0.1	1.6	-0.2	1.9
December	-0.5	0.3	-0.4	0.7	0.1	2.1	0.1	1.6	-0.2	1.6
Footnotes: (R) = revised.

CPI-W

In October, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was 273.474, down 0.1 percent over the month. The CPI-W rose 1.3 percent over the year.

The November 2019 Consumer Price Index for New York-Newark-Jersey City is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, December 11, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a fixed market basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) a CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which covers approximately 93 percent of the total population and (2) a CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which covers approximately 29 percent of the total population. The CPI-U includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical workers, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Each month, prices are collected in 75 urban areas across the country from about 5,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments--department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.

The index measures price changes from a designated reference date (1982-84) that equals 100.0. An increase of 16.5 percent, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period "market basket" of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. For further details see the CPI home page on the Internet at www.bls.gov/cpi and the BLS Handbook of Methods, Chapter 17, The Consumer Price Index, available on the Internet at www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch17.pdf.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights that represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. Because the sample size of a local area is smaller, the local area index is subject to substantially more sampling and other measurement error than the national index. In addition, local indexes are not adjusted for seasonal influences. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although their long-term trends are quite similar. NOTE:Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices between cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.

The New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa., Core Based Statistical Area includes Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties in New York; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties in New Jersey; and Pike County in Pennsylvania.

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