Prices in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), ticked down 0.1 percent in October, after advancing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Chief Regional Economist Martin Kohli attributed the downturn to lower prices for energy and food. (Data in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Accordingly, month-to-month changes may reflect the impact of seasonal influences.)

Over the year, the CPI-U increased 2.0 percent. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 1.5 percent. (See table A and chart 1.) Price increases for shelter drove the 12-month change in both indexes. (See table 1.)

Food

The food index dropped 0.5 percent in October—the largest decrease in over two years—primarily due to lower prices for food at home (-0.8 percent). Prices declined in four of the six food categories, with flour and prepared flour mixes and apples among the grocery items with lower prices. Prices for food away from home dipped 0.1 percent, after rising 0.3 percent in September.

Over the year, the food index rose 2.2 percent. Food-away-from-home prices were 2.9 percent higher, and food-at-home prices were 1.6 percent higher.

Energy

Over the month, energy prices declined 1.1 percent, following no change in September. Within household energy, prices for electricity dropped 2.8 percent on a seasonal decline. Prices for natural gas dropped 2.4 percent, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. Gasoline prices, on the other hand, were unchanged.

For the year ended in October 2018, the energy index increased 9.4 percent. Gasoline prices were up 12.6 percent, and household energy prices, 6.9 percent. Electricity prices were 4.9 percent higher, and natural gas prices were 4.0 percent higher.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October. Shelter prices were flat. Within shelter, price declines for lodging away from home counterbalanced price increases for residential rent (0.4 percent) and owners’ equivalent rent (0.3 percent). Price declines for apparel (-1.7 percent), recreation (-0.8), and education and communication (-0.5 percent) were offset by increases in household furnishings and operations (0.9 percent), medical care (0.5), and car and truck rentals.

From October 2017 to October 2018, the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.5 percent. Medical care prices increased 3.0 percent. Shelter prices rose 2.0 percent, including a 2.3-percent rise in owners’ equivalent rent and a 1.8-percent increase in residential rent. One other category was up by at least 1.0 percent—other goods and services (1.6 percent).

Table A. New York-Newark-Jersey City CPI-U 1-month and 12-month percent changes (not seasonally adjusted)

Month	2013		2014		2015		2016		2017		2018
	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month	1-month	12-month
January	0.5	2.2	0.9	1.9	0.1	-0.5	0.2	0.8	0.6	2.5	0.4	1.4
February	0.6	2.4	-0.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	2.6	0.5	1.7
March	0.1	1.9	0.4	1.3	0.2	-0.1	0.2	0.7	0.0	2.3	0.0	1.7
April	-0.2	1.4	0.0	1.6	0.1	0.0	0.4	1.0	0.1	2.0	0.3	1.9
May	0.1	1.4	0.5	1.9	0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.9	0.1	1.8	0.4	2.2
June	0.3	1.8	0.0	1.7	0.2	0.1	0.2(R)	0.9(R)	0.2	1.8	0.1	2.0
July	0.2	2.1	0.1	1.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	1.0	-0.2	1.6	0.0	2.2
August	0.1	1.7	-0.2	1.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	1.1	0.2	1.7	0.1	2.2
September	0.3	1.6	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.0	0.5	2.1	0.4	2.0
October	-0.6	1.1	-0.2	1.3	-0.1	0.4	0.1	1.2	-0.2	1.8	-0.1	2.0
November	0.1	1.2	-0.4	0.8	-0.2	0.6	0.2	1.6	-0.1	1.6
December	0.0	1.5	-0.5	0.3	-0.4	0.7	0.1	2.1	0.1	1.6
Footnotes: (R) = revised.

CPI-W

In October, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was 269.879, down 0.2 percent over the month. The CPI-W rose 2.0 percent over the year.

The November 2018 Consumer Price Index for New York-Newark-Jersey City is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, December 12, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a fixed market basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) a CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which covers approximately 93 percent of the total population and (2) a CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which covers approximately 29 percent of the total population. The CPI-U includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical workers, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Each month, prices are collected in 75 urban areas across the country from about 5,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments--department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.

The index measures price changes from a designated reference date (1982-84) that equals 100.0. An increase of 16.5 percent, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period "market basket" of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. For further details see the CPI home page on the Internet at www.bls.gov/cpi and the BLS Handbook of Methods, Chapter 17, The Consumer Price Index, available on the Internet at www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch17.pdf.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights that represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. Because the sample size of a local area is smaller, the local area index is subject to substantially more sampling and other measurement error than the national index. In addition, local indexes are not adjusted for seasonal influences. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although their long-term trends are quite similar. NOTE:Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices between cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.

The New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa., Core Based Statistical Area includes Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties in New York; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties in New Jersey; and Pike County in Pennsylvania.

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