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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Current Employment Statistics (State and Metro Area) > Methods > Additional Resources

Guaranteed publication levels and the CES Small Domain Model (SDM)

With the simultaneous transition to NAICS and the completion of the CES sample redesign in March 2003, new estimation and publication structures for Statewide estimates and all the CES metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) needed to be established. A minimum guaranteed publication structure, detailed below, was defined for all States and MSAs. The structure consists of "Expanded Supersectors," which break Manufacturing; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; and Government into further publication detail. For MSAs with fewer than 100,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs, the minimum publication structure consists of only the aggregate levels of total nonfarm, total private, goods-producing, service-providing, private service-providing, and total government.

All other published series must pass a minimum sufficiency test of at least 30 unique unemployment insurance (UI) accounts in its sample, or a minimum universe employment count of 3,000 with at least 50 percent covered by the sample. The series are tested using first quarter employment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program (QCEW, or ES-202) from the most recent year available.

Guaranteed industries not passing the minimum sufficiency test are estimated using a regression model. The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is a Weighted Least Squares model with three employment inputs: (1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, (2) an ARIMA* projection based on trend from 10 years of historical data, and (3) an estimate "borrowed" from the Statewide series for that industry. In addition to the guaranteed industries, sectors may also be modeled at the Statewide level. (See below.) Approximately 41 percent of State and area CES series are model-based.

*Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average. BLS uses an updated version of the X-13 ARIMA software developed by the Census Bureau to seasonally adjust establishment data; this is also used to derive the historical component of the SDM. For more information, see our technical notes on seasonal adjustment at www.bls.gov/ces/methods/concurrent-seasonal-adjustment-guide.htm.

Guaranteed State and Area Publication Levels

Expanded NAICS supersectors and higher level aggregates

(Statewide and MSAs with more than 100,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs)

00-000000 Total Nonfarm (all in-scope NAICS codes)
- 05-000000 Total Private (Total Nonfarm less Government)
  - 06-000000 Goods-Producing
    - 10-000000 Mining and Logging (NAICS 1133 [logging], NAICS 21)
    - 20-000000 Construction (NAICS 23)
    - 30-000000 Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33)
  - 07-000000 Service-Providing
    - 08-000000 Private Service-Providing (Service-Providing less Government)
      - 40-000000 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (NAICS 42, 44, 45, 48, 49, 22)
        
        41-000000 Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42)
        
        42-000000 Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45)
        
        43-000000 Transportation and Utilities (NAICS 48-49, 22)
      - 50-000000 Information (NAICS 51)
      - 55-000000 Financial Activities (NAICS 52, 53)
      - 60-000000 Professional and Business Services (NAICS 54, 55, 56)
      - 65-000000 Education and Health Services (NAICS 61, 62)
      - 70-000000 Leisure and Hospitality (NAICS 71, 72)
      - 80-000000 Other Services (NAICS 81)
- 90-000000 Government (defined by ownership)
  - 90-910000 Federal
  - 90-920000 State
  - 90-930000 Local

Note: Mining and Logging may be combined with Construction if there is insufficient sample and/or universe employment to publish Mining alone. This becomes supersector 15-000000, Mining, Logging and Construction.

Higher level aggregates

(MSAs with fewer than 100,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs)

00-000000 Total Nonfarm (all in-scope NAICS codes)
- 05-000000 Total Private (Total Nonfarm less Government)
  - 06-000000 Goods-Producing
  - 07-000000 Service-Providing (Service-Providing less Government)
    - 08-000000 Private Service-Providing
- 90-000000 Government (defined by ownership)

NAICS Sector Series

BLS supports models for these series for Statewide estimates if there is insufficient sample for direct sample-based estimation. States are not required to publish at these levels if they are not significant industries within the State.

43-400089 Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48, 49)
43-220000 Utilities (NAICS 22)
55-520000 Finance and Insurance (NAICS 52)
55-530000 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (NAICS 53)
60-540000 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (NAICS 54)
60-550000 Management of Companies and Enterprises (NAICS 55)
60-560000 Administration and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (NAICS 56)
65-610000 Education Services (NAICS 61)
65-620000 Health Services and Social Assistance (NAICS 62)
70-710000 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (NAICS 71)
70-720000 Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72)

Last Modified Date: March 15, 2021