A look at the future of the U.S. labor force to 2060 : Spotlight on Statistics: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

September 2016

A look at the future of the U.S. labor force to 2060

Mitra Toossi

In the next 50 years, demographic changes will significantly alter the U.S. population and labor force. These changes include an aging and more diverse population that will continue growing, but at a slower rate. These changes will impact the growth of the U.S. economy and its ability to create goods and services.

The growth of the labor force is directly related to the growth of the population and changes in the labor force participation rate. A significant part of the changes in labor force growth results from changes in the population. The labor force participation rate has declined substantially since its peak in 2000, for both demographic and economic reasons.

In this Spotlight, we look at projected long-term trends in the growth, size, and composition of the labor force.

View Chart Data

Percentage change in U.S. resident population (projected)
Year	Percent change
2015	0.82%
2016	0.82
2017	0.81
2018	0.81
2019	0.80
2020	0.79
2021	0.78
2022	0.77
2023	0.76
2024	0.74
2025	0.73
2026	0.72
2027	0.70
2028	0.69
2029	0.67
2030	0.65
2031	0.64
2032	0.62
2033	0.60
2034	0.58
2035	0.57
2036	0.55
2037	0.54
2038	0.53
2039	0.51
2040	0.50
2041	0.49
2042	0.48
2043	0.48
2044	0.47
2045	0.46
2046	0.46
2047	0.46
2048	0.45
2049	0.45
2050	0.45
2051	0.45
2052	0.45
2053	0.45
2054	0.45
2055	0.45
2056	0.45
2057	0.46
2058	0.46
2059	0.46
2060	0.46

Resident population growth is declining

The Census Bureau’s projection of the U.S. resident population uses assumptions about future fertility and mortality rates. In addition, assumptions about immigration to the United States, which has a significant impact on population growth, are added to the assumptions about fertility and mortality.

In the Census Bureau’s latest projections, the growth rate (percentage change) of the resident population is projected to decrease in the long term.

View Chart Data

Projected share of natural increase of population and immigration in total population change
Year	Share of immigration in total population change	Share of natural increase in total population change
2015	47%	53%
2016	48	52
2017	48	52
2018	48	52
2019	48	52
2020	49	52
2021	49	51
2022	50	50
2023	50	50
2024	51	49
2025	52	48
2026	53	47
2027	54	46
2028	55	45
2029	57	43
2030	58	42
2031	60	40
2032	61	39
2033	63	37
2034	65	35
2035	67	33
2036	68	32
2037	70	30
2038	72	28
2039	73	27
2040	75	25
2041	76	24
2042	78	22
2043	79	21
2044	80	20
2045	81	19
2046	81	19
2047	82	18
2048	82	18
2049	82	18
2050	82	18
2051	82	18
2052	82	18
2053	82	18
2054	81	19
2055	81	19
2056	80	20
2057	80	20
2058	80	20
2059	79	21
2060	79	21

Projected share of natural increase of population and immigration in total population change

Natural increase refers to the difference between the numbers of births and deaths in a population. The share of natural increase in projections of the resident population is declining, while the share of immigration in projections of the resident population is increasing.

In 2022, the share of natural increase and immigration in projections of the resident population will be equal and at 50 percent.

View Chart Data

Projected components of resident population change to 2060
Component	Change (in millions)
Births	196.6
Deaths	-162.6
Net international migration	64.1
Total population change	98.1

Projected components of resident population change to 2060

According to the Census Bureau’s projections of the resident population, over the 2014 to 2060 period, 98.1 million people will be added to the U.S. resident population. This is a result of adding the 34 million difference between 196.6 million births and 162.6 million deaths to the 64.1 million projected number of additional immigrants.

The number of people projected to be added as a result of net international migration is nearly twice as much as the natural increase.

View Chart Data

Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force is growing
Year	In millions
2000	212.6	142.6
2010	237.8	153.9
2020	262.6	161.5
2030	283.1	168.2
2040	300.0	174.8
2050	313.4	181.3
2060	326.1	185.8

Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force levels

The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to grow from 251 million in 2015 to 326 million in 2060, an increase of 75 million people.

The labor force is projected to increase from 157 million in 2015 to 186 million in 2060, an increase of 29 million.

View Chart Data

Annual growth rates are declining for the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force
Year	Civilian noninstitutional population	Labor force
2000-2010	1.13%	0.77%
2010-2020	0.99	0.48
2020-2030	0.76	0.41
2030-2040	0.58	0.39
2040-2050	0.44	0.37
2050-2060	0.40	0.24

Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force growth

Changes in population growth and labor force participation rates over the next several decades will impact the growth of the labor force.

Even though the size of the population will grow, its annual growth rate is projected to slow down in the coming decades. The decline in the growth rate of the U.S. population is due to a variety of factors, such as the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and a lessening of the growth in immigration.

Growth is expected to get progressively slower for both the population and the labor force over the projected time frame to 2060, much slower than in earlier decades.

View Chart Data

Labor force participation rates are projected to decline
Year	Total	Total (projected)	Men	Men (projected)	Women	Women (projected)
1950	59.2%		86.4%		33.9%
1951	59.2		86.5		34.6
1952	59.0		86.3		34.7
1953	58.9		86.0		34.4
1954	58.8		85.5		34.6
1955	59.3		85.4		35.7
1956	60.0		85.5		36.9
1957	59.6		84.8		36.9
1958	59.5		84.2		37.1
1959	59.3		83.7		37.1
1960	59.4		83.3		37.7
1961	59.3		82.9		38.1
1962	58.8		82.0		37.9
1963	58.7		81.4		38.3
1964	58.7		81.0		38.7
1965	58.9		80.7		39.3
1966	59.2		80.4		40.3
1967	59.6		80.4		41.1
1968	59.6		80.1		41.6
1969	60.1		79.8		42.7
1970	60.4		79.7		43.3
1971	60.2		79.1		43.4
1972	60.4		78.9		43.9
1973	60.8		78.8		44.7
1974	61.3		78.7		45.7
1975	61.2		77.9		46.3
1976	61.6		77.5		47.3
1977	62.3		77.7		48.4
1978	63.2		77.9		50.0
1979	63.7		77.8		50.9
1980	63.8		77.4		51.5
1981	63.9		77.0		52.1
1982	64.0		76.6		52.6
1983	64.0		76.4		52.9
1984	64.4		76.4		53.6
1985	64.8		76.3		54.5
1986	65.3		76.3		55.3
1987	65.6		76.2		56.0
1988	65.9		76.2		56.6
1989	66.5		76.4		57.4
1990	66.5		76.4		57.5
1991	66.2		75.8		57.4
1992	66.4		75.8		57.8
1993	66.3		75.4		57.9
1994	66.6		75.1		58.8
1995	66.6		75.0		58.9
1996	66.8		74.9		59.3
1997	67.1		75.0		59.8
1998	67.1		74.9		59.8
1999	67.1		74.7		60.0
2000	67.1		74.8		59.9
2001	66.8		74.4		59.8
2002	66.6		74.1		59.6
2003	66.2		73.5		59.5
2004	66.0		73.3		59.2
2005	66.0		73.3		59.3
2006	66.2		73.5		59.4
2007	66.0		73.2		59.3
2008	66.0		73.0		59.5
2009	65.4		72.0		59.2
2010	64.7		71.2		58.6
2011	64.1		70.5		58.1
2012	63.7		70.2		57.7
2013	63.2		69.7		57.2
2014	62.9		69.2		57.0
2015	62.7		69.1		56.7
2016		62.4%		68.7%		56.5%
2017		62.2		68.3		56.4
2018		62.0		68.0		56.3
2019		61.7		67.7		56.1
2020		61.5		67.4		56.0
2021		61.3		67.1		55.9
2022		61.1		66.8		55.7
2023		60.8		66.4		55.6
2024		60.6		66.1		55.4
2025		60.4		65.9		55.3
2026		60.2		65.7		55.1
2027		60.0		65.5		54.8
2028		59.8		65.3		54.6
2029		59.6		65.1		54.4
2030		59.4		64.9		54.2
2031		59.2		64.8		54.0
2032		59.0		64.6		53.8
2033		58.9		64.5		53.6
2034		58.8		64.3		53.5
2035		58.6		64.2		53.4
2036		58.5		64.1		53.2
2037		58.4		64.0		53.2
2038		58.4		64.0		53.1
2039		58.3		63.9		53.0
2040		58.3		63.8		53.0
2041		58.2		63.8		52.9
2042		58.2		63.7		52.9
2043		58.1		63.7		52.8
2044		58.1		63.7		52.8
2045		58.1		63.6		52.8
2046		58.0		63.6		52.7
2047		58.0		63.5		52.7
2048		58.0		63.5		52.7
2049		57.9		63.4		52.7
2050		57.9		63.3		52.6
2051		57.8		63.3		52.5
2052		57.7		63.2		52.5
2053		57.6		63.1		52.4
2054		57.6		63.0		52.4
2055		57.5		62.9		52.3
2056		57.4		62.8		52.2
2057		57.3		62.6		52.1
2058		57.2		62.5		52.1
2059		57.1		62.4		52.0
2060		57.0		62.3		51.9

Labor force participation rates by sex

From the early 1950s until its peak over 1997–2000, the overall labor force participation rate increased. From 2000 to 2010, the overall participation rate fell by 2.4 percentage points. In the 5 years between 2010–2015, the overall participation rate fell by another 2.0 percentage points, much sharper than the previous 10 years. BLS is projecting a continuous decline in the overall participation rates until 2060.

The men's participation rate has declined since the late 1940s, accelerating after the recession of 2007–2009. Since 2010, the labor force participation rate of men has fallen another 2.1 percentage points. BLS is projecting a further decline in the participation rates of men.

The participation rate for women peaked in 1999 at 60 percent and has been declining since then. From 2000 to 2010, the rate for women fell by 1.3 percentage points. From 2010 to 2015, the women’s participation rate fell by another 1.9 percentage points, much higher than the decline in the previous 10 years. The BLS is also projecting a further decline in women’s participation rates.

View Chart Data

Labor force participation rates of all age groups are projected to decline
Year	16–24	16–24 (projected)	25–54	25–54 (projected)	55 years and older	55 years and older (projected)
1950	59.9%		65.7%		43.0%
1951	59.3		66.2		42.6
1952	57.2		66.6		42.2
1953	56.0		66.9		41.9
1954	55.2		67.0		41.7
1955	56.1		67.6		42.1
1956	57.8		68.2		42.9
1957	57.2		68.3		41.7
1958	56.3		68.6		41.3
1959	55.7		68.7		41.1
1960	56.4		68.9		40.9
1961	56.3		69.1		40.8
1962	55.8		69.0		39.8
1963	55.2		69.4		39.4
1964	55.3		69.6		39.5
1965	55.8		69.9		39.4
1966	57.1		70.3		39.2
1967	57.7		70.9		39.3
1968	57.7		71.1		39.3
1969	58.9		71.6		39.3
1970	59.8		72.0		38.9
1971	59.9		72.0		38.3
1972	61.8		72.2		37.3
1973	63.7		72.9		35.9
1974	64.9		73.6		35.2
1975	64.6		74.1		34.7
1976	65.3		74.9		33.9
1977	66.7		75.8		33.6
1978	68.2		76.9		33.6
1979	68.6		77.9		33.4
1980	68.1		78.6		32.8
1981	67.7		79.3		32.2
1982	67.2		79.8		31.9
1983	67.1		80.1		31.4
1984	67.7		80.7		30.7
1985	68.3		81.5		30.3
1986	68.6		82.0		30.1
1987	68.4		82.5		30.0
1988	68.4		82.9		30.0
1989	68.6		83.4		30.3
1990	67.3		83.5		30.1
1991	66.0		83.4		29.6
1992	66.1		83.6		29.7
1993	66.1		83.4		29.4
1994	66.4		83.4		30.1
1995	66.3		83.5		30.0
1996	65.5		83.8		30.3
1997	65.4		84.1		30.9
1998	65.9		84.1		31.3
1999	65.5		84.1		31.8
2000	65.8		84.0		32.4
2001	64.5		83.7		33.2
2002	63.3		83.3		34.5
2003	61.6		83.0		35.7
2004	61.1		82.8		36.2
2005	60.8		82.8		37.2
2006	60.6		82.9		38.0
2007	59.4		83.0		38.6
2008	58.8		83.1		39.4
2009	56.9		82.6		40.0
2010	55.2		82.2		40.2
2011	55.0		81.6		40.2
2012	54.9		81.4		40.5
2013	55.0		81.0		40.3
2014	55.0		80.9		40.0
2015	55.0		80.9			39.9
2016		53.9%		80.9%		40.1%
2017		53.2		80.9		40.1
2018		52.8		80.9		40.1
2019		52.3		81.0		40.0
2020		51.8		81.0		40.0
2021		51.3		81.0		39.8
2022		50.8		80.9		39.6
2023		50.3		80.9		39.3
2024		49.8		80.9		39.1
2025		49.5		80.9		39.0
2026		49.5		81.0		38.6
2027		49.6		81.0		38.1
2028		49.6		81.0		37.6
2029		49.6		81.0		37.1
2030		49.6		81.0		36.7
2031		49.5		80.9		36.3
2032		49.3		80.9		35.9
2033		49.2		80.9		35.6
2034		49.1		80.9		35.4
2035		49.1		80.9		35.2
2036		49.0		80.9		35.1
2037		49.0		80.9		35.1
2038		49.0		80.9		35.1
2039		49.1		80.9		35.0
2040		49.1		80.9		35.0
2041		49.1		80.9		35.0
2042		49.1		80.9		35.1
2043		49.1		80.9		35.1
2044		49.2		80.9		35.2
2045		49.2		80.9		35.3
2046		49.2		80.9		35.5
2047		49.2		80.9		35.6
2048		49.2		80.9		35.7
2049		49.2		80.9		35.8
2050		49.1		80.9		35.7
2051		49.1		80.9		35.7
2052		49.1		80.9		35.7
2053		49.1		80.9		35.6
2054		49.0		80.9		35.5
2055		49.0		80.9		35.5
2056		49.0		80.9		35.4
2057		49.0		80.9		35.3
2058		48.9		80.9		35.2
2059		48.9		80.9		35.1
2060		48.9		80.9		34.9

Labor force participation rates by age

The labor force participation rate of teenagers (16 to 19 years old) and young adults (20 to 24 years old) has been on a decline for several decades. It is projected that the decline will continue in the future. The labor force participation rate of the prime age group, 25 to 54 years old, has been declining since the end of the 1990s and is projected to decline slightly in the future. The labor force participation rate of those age 55 years and older had been on the rise since 1996, but has slightly declined since a peak in 2012. BLS projects that a decline will continue in the future.

The baby boomers' exit from the prime-age labor force and their movement into older age groups will lower the overall labor force participation rate.

View Chart Data

Labor force is getting older
Age	2015	2030	2060
16-24	13.4%	11.0%	10.3%
25-34	22.1	21.6	20.4
35-44	20.8	23.0	21.6
45-54	21.6	20.0	20.9
55 years and older	22.2	24.3	26.8

Distribution of labor force by age

The share of the 16 to 24 year olds in the labor force is expected to decrease during the 2015-60 projections period.

As baby boomers age, the 55-years-and-older age group will become larger. This will continue until the bulk of baby boomers retire and leave the labor force.

View Chart Data

Share of Hispanics in the labor force is increasing
Ethnicity	2015	2030	2060
Non-Hispanic	83.4%	77.6%	69.7%
Hispanic	16.6	22.4	30.3

Labor force by ethnicity

Hispanics are projected to increase their share of the labor force due to higher birth, labor force participation, and immigration rates. Persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity can be of any race.

Growth of the Hispanic labor force is expected to be higher than the growth of the non-Hispanic labor force.

Racial and ethnic minorities have increased their presence in the population and the labor force, and the result can be seen in the growing diversity of the workforce.

View Chart Data

Share of white non-Hispanics in the labor force is declining
Year	Percentage of the labor force
2015	63.7%
2020	61.5
2030	57.1
2040	53.1
2050	49.5
2060	46.2

Share of white non-Hispanics in the labor force

Over the long term projection period, the share of white non-Hispanics in the labor force is expected to decrease.

A decline in the number and share of White non-Hispanics is accompanied by faster growth of other racial and ethnic groups.

The upcoming retirement of the baby boomers, a group that has a large share of white non-Hispanic men, will further lower that group’s share of the total labor force.

Low fertility rate and low migration of White non-Hispanics relative to other racial groups will contribute to the group's decreasing share in the labor force.

More information

Mitra Toossi is an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.. Email: toossi.mitra@bls.gov.

The 2014 National Population Projections of the Census Bureau have been used as the basis for the BLS long-term labor force projections to 2060.

The historical demographic data on labor force participation rates are based on the Current Population Survey. The Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of households, is conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The survey provides statistics on the employment and labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older and is collected from a probability sample of approximately 60,000 households.

The BLS labor force projections are based on the civilian noninstitutional population, which is defined as all persons 16 years of age and older who are not inmates of mental institutions, homes for the aged or in the Armed Forces.

In the present long-term labor force projections to 2060, detailed labor force participation rates were projected from 2014 to 2024 and kept constant afterwards. During this period, any changes projected in the labor force are mainly the result of compositional changes of the population. The projected overall decline in the participation rate is expected to exert a relatively insignificant influence on the labor force, whose growth will likely be due mostly to the impact of low population growth projected by the Census Bureau.

Note: Data in this Spotlight on Statistics are the latest available when published. Internet links may lead to more recent data.

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