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Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on Job Openings and Labor Turnover data for July 2020

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) national estimates of job openings, hires, and separations have been affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This page provides further information on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for the July 2020 JOLTS news release.

Although the impact cannot be precisely quantified for the month of July, it is clear that increasing job openings and quits, as well as decreasing levels of hires and layoffs and discharges, reflected an ongoing resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it. More information on the JOLTS methodology can be found in the JOLTS Handbook of Methods chapter.

Collection mode

Data collection for the JOLTS survey was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, JOLTS collected 42 percent of data by phone at the JOLTS data collection center on average. Most phone respondents were asked to report electronically. However, data collection was adversely impacted by the inability to reach some respondents that normally respond by phone.

Table 1. Percent of establishments responding by collection mode for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Collection mode 12-month average through February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020

Phone

42% 19% 27% 28% 32% 31%

Web

52% 75% 68% 67% 62% 65%

Other

6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 4%

Response rates

The preliminary JOLTS response rate for July 2020 was 46 percent. In June, the final response rate was 50 percent. In the year prior to the pandemic, the preliminary response rate averaged 54 percent and the final response rate averaged 58 percent.

In July, JOLTS response rates declined in all industries and size classes. The industries most impacted were real estate and rental and leasing, as well as state and local government education. The industry least affected was health care and social assistance.

Table 2. Response rates for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Time period Preliminary Rate Final Rate

12-month average through February 2020

54% 58%

March 2020

46% 51%

April 2020

44% 49%

May 2020

45% 51%

June 2020

47% 50%

July 2020

46% Not available

Imputation

JOLTS imputation for July resulted in very few cells with more imputation relative to the previous year. The industries which generally experienced more imputation were transportation, warehousing, and utilities and real estate and rental and leasing.

Cell, series, index, or observation suppression

JOLTS did not suppress publication cells for July 2020.

Measures of error

Since the JOLTS program uses the median standard error over 5 years, the observed effect of July 2020 on the 5-year median is not likely to be large. JOLTS will not have error measures that include data from the current year until annual processing in March 2021.

Changes to methods

In anticipation of issues due to the pandemic, the JOLTS program reviewed all estimation and methodological procedures. An adjustment has been made to the JOLTS estimation methodology in order to more accurately reflect the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjustments were also made to the seasonal adjustment process.

Estimation

BLS modified the JOLTS estimates starting in March and continuing through July to better reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimation process usually includes an alignment of monthly hires minus separations to the over-the-month change in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment estimates. BLS suspended the alignment process because the differing reference periods for the CES employment estimates (pay period including the 12th of the month) and the JOLTS hires and separations estimates (the entire reference month) led to substantially different measurement outcomes. For example, hires and separations during the latter half of July were not included in the CES employment change for July, but were included in the JOLTS data for the month.

The alignment portion of the JOLTS estimation process was designed to correct a long-term divergence between the JOLTS implied employment change and the CES employment change. JOLTS hires minus separations and CES employment change generally approximate one another. Alignment was developed to correct small monthly discrepancies between the two series that build up over time; it was not designed to address a substantial short-term divergence between the two series. The alignment process was suppressed in order to produce the highest quality JOLTS estimates possible in this unique situation.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment factors can be either multiplicative or additive. A multiplicative seasonal effect is assumed to be proportional to the level of the series. A sudden large increase in the level of the series will be accompanied by a proportionally large seasonal effect. In contrast, an additive seasonal effect is assumed to be unaffected by the level of the series. In times of relative economic stability, the multiplicative option is generally preferred over the additive option. However, in the presence of a large level shift in a time series, multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors can result in systematic over- or under-adjustment of the series; in such cases, additive seasonal adjustment factors are preferred since they tend to more accurately track seasonal fluctuations in the series and have smaller revisions.

In July, the majority of the JOLTS series will retain the additive designation. In accordance with the survey’s usual practice, the seasonal adjustment models and factors will be reviewed at the end of the calendar year, when 5 years of seasonally adjusted estimates will be subject to revision.

Questions and answers specific to July

  1. How are people who were laid off counted by JOLTS? The reference periods of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are the pay period that includes the 12th of the month for employment, the last business day of the month for job openings, and the entire calendar month for hires and separations. The JOLTS program does not estimate employment, but does collect employment during the collection process to validate reported job openings, hires, and separations. Employees who are laid off from their job at any time during the month are reported in the layoff and discharges measure, and in total separations. See the JOLTS frequently asked questions for detailed information on the data definitions.
  2. How did the July estimates compare with the monthly estimates for past JOLTS data? Please see the following tables for a comparison of July 2020 estimates to historical levels.
Table 3a. Job openings by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region July 2020 level Monthly change Monthly percent change Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest Last time level was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest

Total nonfarm

6,618 617 10.3 Jun 2020 6,001 Feb 2020 7,004 May 2020 375 Jun 2020 630 May 2020 7.5 Jun 2020 11.7

Total private

5,947 600 11.2 Jun 2020 5,347 Feb 2020 6,236 May 2020 404 Jun 2020 611 May 2020 9.3 Jun 2020 12.9

Government

671 17 2.6 Jun 2020 654 Mar 2020 727 May 2020 -29 Jun 2020 19 May 2020 -4.4 Jun 2020 3.0

Region

Northeast

1,161 38 3.4 Jun 2020 1,123 Feb 2020 1,237 May 2020 -24 Jun 2020 175 May 2020 -2.5 Jun 2020 18.5

South

2,463 237 10.6 Jun 2020 2,226 Feb 2020 2,589 Jun 2020 177 Jul 2015 356 Jun 2020 8.6 Jul 2015 17.8

Midwest

1,557 228 17.2 Jun 2020 1,329 Oct 2019 1,648 Jun 2020 206 Jun 2017 208 May 2020 5.2 Jun 2020 18.3

West

1,438 115 8.7 Jun 2020 1,323 Feb 2020 1,621 Jun 2020 72 May 2020 150 Jun 2020 5.8 May 2020 13.6
Table 3b. Hires by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region July 2020 level Monthly change Monthly percent change Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest Last time level was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest

Total nonfarm

5,787 -1,183 -17.0 Apr 2020 4,047 Jun 2020 6,970 Apr 2020 -1064 Jun 2020 -229 Apr 2020 -20.8 Jun 2020 -3.2

Total private

5,455 -1,233 -18.4 Apr 2020 3,812 Jun 2020 6,688 Apr 2020 -932 Jun 2020 -264 Apr 2020 -19.6 Jun 2020 -3.8

Government

333 52 18.5 Jun 2020 281 Mar 2020 367 Jun 2020 34 Sep 2014 67 Jun 2020 13.8 Sep 2014 25.1

Region

Northeast

1,038 -176 -14.5 Apr 2020 534 Jun 2020 1,214 Apr 2020 -335 Jun 2020 111 Apr 2020 -38.6 Jun 2020 10.1

South

2,072 -345 -14.3 Apr 2020 1,584 Jun 2020 2,417 Apr 2020 -414 Jun 2020 8 Apr 2020 -20.7 Jun 2020 0.3

Midwest

1,297 -385 -22.9 Apr 2020 914 Jun 2020 1,682 Feb 2001 -211 Jun 2020 54 Apr 2020 -16.7 Jun 2020 3.3

West

1,380 -276 -16.7 Apr 2020 1,015 Jun 2020 1,656 Jun 2020 -403 May 2020 1044 Jun 2020 -19.6 May 2020 102.9
Table 3c. Total separations by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region July 2020 level Monthly change Monthly percent change Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest Last time level was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest

Total nonfarm

5,007 108 2.2 Jun 2020 4,899 Apr 2020 9,975 May 2020 -5739 Jun 2020 663 May 2020 -57.5 Jun 2020 15.7

Total private

4,722 66 1.4 Jun 2020 4,656 Apr 2020 9,536 May 2020 -5601 Jun 2020 721 May 2020 -58.7 Jun 2020 18.3

Government

285 42 17.3 Jun 2020 243 May 2020 302 Jun 2020 -59 Mar 2020 49 Jun 2020 -19.5 Aug 2016 21.5

Region

Northeast

766 -75 -8.9 May 2020 727 Jun 2020 841 May 2020 -1124 Jun 2020 114 May 2020 -60.7 Jun 2020 15.7

South

1,851 -11 -0.6 May 2020 1,675 Jun 2020 1,862 May 2020 -1754 Jun 2020 187 May 2020 -51.2 Jun 2020 11.2

Midwest

1,170 90 8.3 Jun 2020 1,080 Apr 2020 2,170 May 2020 -1270 Jun 2020 180 May 2020 -58.5 Jun 2020 20.0

West

1,220 105 9.4 Jun 2020 1,115 Apr 2020 2,525 May 2020 -1592 Jun 2020 182 May 2020 -63.0 Jun 2020 19.5
Table 3d. Layoffs and discharges by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region July 2020 level Monthly change Monthly percent change Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest Last time level was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest

Total nonfarm

1,721 -274 -13.7 Mar 2019 1,698 Jun 2020 1995 May 2020 -5805 Jun 2020 92 May 2020 -75.3 Jun 2020 4.8

Total private

1,650 -263 -13.7 Mar 2019 1,596 Jun 2020 1913 May 2020 -5701 Jun 2020 133 May 2020 -76.2 Jun 2020 7.5

Government

71 -10 -12.3 Nov 2001 71 Jun 2020 81 Jun 2020 -42 Apr 2020 54 Jun 2020 -34.1 Apr 2020 31.2

Region

Northeast

295 -100 -25.3 Feb 2019 284 Jun 2020 395 May 2020 -1107 Jun 2020 -7 May 2020 -73.4 Jun 2020 -1.7

South

577 -129 -18.3 Feb 2017 577 Jun 2020 706 May 2020 -1846 Jun 2020 42 May 2020 -73.5 Jun 2020 6.3

Midwest

381 -35 -8.4 Oct 2019 340 Jun 2020 416 May 2020 -1242 Jun 2020 8 May 2020 -75.3 Jun 2020 2.0

West

468 -10 -2.1 May 2020 429 Jun 2020 478 May 2020 -1610 Jun 2020 49 May 2020 -79.0 Jun 2020 11.4
Table 3e. Quits by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region July 2020 level Monthly change Monthly percent change Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest Last time level was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest

Total nonfarm

2,949 344 13.2 Jun 2020 2,605 Feb 2020 3,436 May 2020 190 Jun 2020 538 May 2020 10.1 Jun 2020 26.0

Total private

2,798 306 12.3 Jun 2020 2,492 Feb 2020 3,245 May 2020 214 Jun 2020 547 Apr 2020 -33.9 Jun 2020 28.1

Government

152 39 34.5 Jun 2020 113 Mar 2020 170 Jun 2020 -9 May 2001 48 Jun 2020 -7.4 Jun 2010 35.7

Region

Northeast

401 9 2.3 Jun 2020 392 Mar 2020 404 May 2020 -3 Jun 2020 120 May 2020 -1.1 Jun 2020 44.1

South

1,153 99 9.4 Jun 2020 1,054 Feb 2020 1,347 Apr 2020 -307 Jun 2020 135 Apr 2020 -28.0 Jun 2020 14.7

Midwest

718 119 19.9 Jun 2020 599 Feb 2020 783 May 2020 25 Jun 2020 156 May 2020 6.0 Jun 2020 35.2

West

677 117 20.9 Jun 2020 560 Feb 2020 812 May 2020 39 Jun 2020 127 May 2020 9.9 Jun 2020 29.3

Last Modified Date: September 9, 2020