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Using Modeled Wage Estimates to analyze occupations with the most new jobs from the Occupational Outlook Handbook

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) is a BLS career resource offering information on the hundreds of occupations that provide most of the jobs in the United States. Every year the OOH provides updated information on projected job growth over the next ten years. The Most New Jobs ranking includes the projected number of new jobs and median pay per occupation for the 20 occupations with the highest projected numeric change in employment within a ten-year period (See Chart 1). A new job is defined as an addition of a position to an establishment’s payroll, usually as a result of economic expansion.

Table 1. Occupations with the highest projected numeric change in employment, 2021-2031
Occupation	Projected employment
Home health and personal care aids	924,000
Restaurant cooks	459,900
Software developers	370,600
Fast food and counter workers	243,200
General and operations managers	209,800
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook

The OOH provides occupational profiles that describe the typical duties performed by the occupation, the work environment of that occupation, the typical education and training needed to enter the occupation, and the median pay for workers in the occupation. Using Modeled Wage Estimates (MWE)⁽¹⁾ to analyze these occupations can provide additional information on average hourly wages by job level, job characteristic, and geographic area.

Job characteristics include bargaining status (union and nonunion), part- and full-time work status, incentive- and time-based pay, and work levels (1-15, entry, intermediate, experienced, and not able to be leveled). Geographic locations include national, state, and metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.

Work levels 1-15 are determined using the National Compensation Survey: Guide for Evaluating Your Firm’s Jobs and Pay to assign points to each of the four factors. Although work levels may range from 1-15, work levels vary for each occupation. Work levels are based on total points from each factor.

Work levels are calculated based on:

Knowledge: amount needed to perform a job at different levels
Job controls and complexity: amount and type of direction received, the complexity of work and the nature of the work within a job
Contacts: nature and purpose of contacts within a job but outside the supervisory chain
Physical environment: nature of risk and amount of physical demands of a job

Starting in the 2021 publication, MWE includes grouped work-levels among entry, intermediate and experienced levels. Grouped work-level estimates are created from meaningful group level distinctions within an occupation, consisting of either two groups for entry and experienced levels or three groups for entry, intermediate and experienced levels. They assist in broad level comparisons and may help researchers, human resources professionals, jobseekers, and other data users better understand how grouped work-level pay varies amongst occupation, job characteristic and locality.

In the charts below, you can find selected MWE information by occupation. MWE complete datasets can be found through the database or tables webpages.

Home health and personal care aides

According to the OOH, home health and personal care aides monitor the condition of people with disabilities or chronic illnesses and help them with daily living activities. The median hourly wage for home health and personal care aides was $14.51 in May 2022. Employment of home health and personal care aides is projected to grow 25 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations. It is projected that between 2021 and 2031 there will be 924,000 new jobs for home health and personal care aides.

From the MWE, the average hourly wage for home and health and personal care aids in the U.S. was $13.82 for level 2 and $19.77 for level 5 (See Chart 2).

Table 2. Average hourly wages for home health and personal care aides in the U.S., 2022
Level	Average hourly wage
Level 02	$13.82
Level 03	$14.71
Level 04	$15.29
Level 05	$19.77
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modeled Wage Estimates

Restaurant cooks

According to the OOH, restaurant cooks prepare a variety of dishes, usually by individual order, in eating establishments. The median hourly wage for restaurant cooks was $16.40 in May 2022. Overall employment of restaurant cooks is projected to grow 37 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations. It is projected that between 2021 and 2031 there will be 459,900 new jobs for restaurant cooks. From the MWE, the average hourly wage for restaurant cooks in the U.S. was $14.74 for entry and $17.38 for experienced level workers in 2022. In Ohio, entry level restaurant cooks' wages were $13.64 at the entry level and $15.90 at the experienced level. In California, restaurant cooks' wages were $18.23 at the entry level and $20.89 at the experienced level (See Chart 3).

Table 3. Average hourly wages for restaurant cooks per state, 2022
Area	Entry	Experienced
National	$14.74	$17.38
Ohio	$13.64	$15.90
Virginia	$13.84	$16.83
District of Columbia	$18.27	$20.51
California	$18.23	$20.89
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modeled Wage Estimates

Software developers

According to the OOH, software developers design computer applications or programs. The median hourly wage for software developers was $61.18 in May 2022. Employment of software developers is projected to grow 26 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations. It is projected that between 2021 and 2031 there will be 370,600 new jobs for software developers.

From the MWE, the national hourly wage for software developers was $46.19 at the entry level and $72.18 at the experienced level in 2022. In the Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH metropolitan area, the average hourly wage for software developers was $45.75 at the entry level and $66.33 at the experienced level. In the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA metropolitan area, the average hourly wage for software developers was $64.98 at the entry level and $86.87 at the experienced level (See Chart 4).

Table 4. Average hourly wages for software developers per metropolitan area, 2022
Area	Entry	Experienced
National	$46.19	$72.18
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH	$45.75	$66.33
Raleigh, NC	$49.21	$77.32
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	$50.50	$81.13
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	$64.98	$86.87
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modeled Wage Estimates

Fast food and counter workers

According to OOH, fast food and counter workers take food and beverage orders, prepare or retrieve items, and accept payment. The median hourly wage for fast food and counter workers was $13.43 in May 2022. Overall employment of fast food and counter workers is projected to grow 8 percent from 2021 to 2031, faster than the average for all occupations. It is projected that between 2021 and 2031 there will be 243,200 new jobs for fast food and counter workers.

From the MWE, the average hourly wage for fast food and counter workers in the U.S. was $13.18 for part-time workers and $14.95 for full-time workers in 2021. In Texas, the average hourly wage for fast food and counter workers was $11.24 for part-time workers and $12.91 for full-time workers. In California, the average hourly wage for fast food and counter workers was $16.35 for part-time workers and $18.04 for full-time workers (See Chart 5).

Table 5. Average hourly wages for fast food and counter workers per state, 2022
Area	Part-time	Full-time
National	$13.18	$14.95
Texas	$11.24	$12.91
Florida	$12.17	$13.49
Illinois	$13.89	$15.20
New York	$15.61	$17.26
California	$16.35	$18.04
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modeled Wage Estimates

General and operations managers

According to the OOH, general and operations managers have diverse management and administrative responsibilities ranging from directing daily activities to ensuring that projects are completed. The median hourly wage for general and operations managers was $47.16 in May 2022. Overall employment of general and operations managers is projected to grow 7 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations. It is projected that between 2021 and 2031 there will be 209,800 new jobs for general and operations managers.

From the MWE, the average hourly earnings for general and operations managers in 2022 was $35.64 at level 9 and $67.53 at level 12 (See Chart 6).

Table 6. Average hourly wages for general and operations managers in the U.S., 2022
Level	Average hourly wage
Level 09	$35.64
Level 10	$43.46
Level 11	$65.37
Level 12	$67.53
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Modeled Wage Estimates

Modeled Wage Estimates resources:

Occupational Outlook Handbook resources:

End notes

(1) MWE is produced with the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) and National Compensation Survey (NCS) programs to provide more details on occupational wages than either program provides individually. The OEWS provides the occupational and geographic wage data and the NCS provides the job characteristic related data.

Last Modified Date: August 24, 2023