Employment Projections : Data sources
As a nonsurvey program, Employment Projections (EP) is fundamentally different from most other BLS programs. Instead of collecting primary source data through surveys or censuses, EP relies predominantly on publicly available data that are produced by other BLS programs and other government offices. In addition, BLS uses data it accesses through a contract with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.
EP makes extensive use of other BLS datasets in its projections. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are used in the labor force, industry, and occupational employment projections. Current Employment Statistics (CES) data are also used to project industry employment, as are data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) data are used to project occupational employment. Price data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) are used to calculate and project deflators.
EP bases its labor force projections on long-term demographic projections published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Census also produces several datasets that BLS uses to estimate industry output such as the Economic Census, the Annual Survey of Manufacturers (ASM), and wholesale and retail trade surveys.
EP relies on the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for most of its final demand and intermediate output data. The main BEA data sources are the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and the benchmark and annual input–output (IO) accounts.
Due to the specific nature of some industries, EP also uses additional sources to estimate industry output. These include information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the U.S. Postal Service (USPS). There are several other small governmental data sources.
BLS also contracts with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, for use of the MA/US macroeconomic model, which contains a large number of data series and models that are integral to the EP production process.
Using all of these sources, EP analysts construct a historical time series of final demand, commodity output, industry output, and industry employment. At each stage, analysts review all time series for outliers and adjust them where necessary using analyst discretion based on qualitative and statistical assessments of the relative reliability of conflicting data. Similar review processes are used for projected data. Major data sources are listed in exhibit 1 below.
|Census||Labor force data preparation and projection||https://www.census.gov/population/projections/|
Labor force statistics
|BLS/CPS||Labor force data and industry output and employment preparation/projection||https://www.bls.gov/cps/|
|Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC||Macroeconomy data preparation/projection||http://www.macroadvisers.com/|
BEA IO tables
|BEA||Input–output and final demand preparation/projection||http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#annual|
BEA NIPA tables
|BEA||Input–output and final demand preparation/projection||http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm|
|Census||Change in private inventories (CIPI) preparation/projection||https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html|
Yearly wage and hours
|BLS/CES||Industry output and employment preparation/projection||https://www.bls.gov/ces/|
|Census||Industry output and employment preparation/projection||https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/|
|BLS/QCEW||Industry output and employment preparation/projection||https://www.bls.gov/cew/|
Last Modified Date: February 13, 2018