BLS total employment projections usually close

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected trends in total employment fairly accurately since the 1960s, but the accuracy has not increased over time.

[Chart data—TXT]

For three of the five periods shown in the chart, the projections of total employment growth were very accurate. Projected and actual employment growth were equal for 1960-70, at 20 percent. The 1980-90 employment projection (19 percent) was nearly identical to actual growth (20 percent). Additionally, projected and actual employment growth were very close for the 1960-75 period.

Projected and actual employment growth rates diverged the most over the latest period. Employment was projected to increase by a relatively modest 15 percent from 1984-95; it actually rose by 22 percent. There was also a sizable difference between projected and actual growth for the 1968-80 period.

Data on projections are produced by the BLS Employment Projections program. Find more information on the accuracy of employment projections in "The quality of BLS projections: a historical account," Monthly Labor Review, May 1999.