Predicting the National unemployment rate that the old CPS would have produced

Richard B. Tiller and M. Welch

Abstract

In January 1994, the introduction of the redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) questionnaire and automation of collection procedures was expected to affect most labor force estimates. To help evaluate the change in the unemployment rate attributed to these revisions, time series models were used to extrapolate the pre-1994 series to predict the unemployment rate estimates for 1994.