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Office of Survey Methods Research
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Published Year: 2002
Survey/Program(s): Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Catalog: Statistical Survey Paper
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Accounting for Business Births and Deaths in CES: Bias vs. Net Birth/Death Modeling
Abstract
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, conducted monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimates payroll employment, hours, and earnings. The survey originated as a quota-based sample, but currently is transitioning to a probability-based sample. Because business births and deaths cannot be captured in a timely manner by the CES survey, they are accounted for by modeling. The bias adjustment factor used for the quota sample is discussed and compared to the net birth/death model used for the probability sample. While the latter sample uses imputation of business deaths to account for business births, an ARIMA time series model, or the net birth/death model, estimates the residual not accounted for by the imputations. In contrast, the bias adjustment factors are derived solely from a regression-adjusted mean-error model. Although both models account for business births, the bias adjustment factor model also accounts for other elements of non-sampling error. The numbers derived from the net birth/death model are compared to the results from the bias adjustment factor model.