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Office of Survey Methods Research
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Published Year: 2006
Survey/Program(s): Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics
Catalog: Economic Working Paper
WP Number: WP-391
Publication Status / Disposition: Available from the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics (February 2006).
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Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All Recoveries Are Created Equal
Abstract
The last two economic downturns are notable for their slow labor market recoveries. Yet, the behavior of their underlying gross job flows is quite different. The 1990-92 period had a relatively slow decline in job destruction, while the 2001-03 period had a large, persistent decline in job creation that occurs across most industries. The dynamics of the latter period run counter to the conventional wisdom that large movements in job destruction drive business cycles. Evidence spanning the entire postwar period suggests that job creation is at a historic low, and that its recent patterns are part of decades-long decline in the magnitude and volatility of job reallocation.