Using Current Employment Statistics Survey Data to Estimate Employment in Expanding and Contracting Establishments: Preliminary results and Issues

Kenneth W. Robertson and Michael Roosma


The CES survey is a large monthly survey of businesses used to estimate employment, hours, and earnings by industry and geographic area. The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program is a quarterly program that disaggregates population business data into four components: opening establishments; businesses whose employment expanded; businesses whose employment contracted; and closing establishments. The data from the BED program are available about 7 months after the end of the calendar quarter. It is possible to estimate two of these series – the expansions and the contractions – using CES survey reports. Research to produce an experimental CES-BED series has raised a number of estimation and administrative issues. Many of these issues are still being examined. The authors present some preliminary results and discuss some of the issues that still remain to be resolved.