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Putting the Paycheck Protection Program into Perspective: An Analysis Using Administrative and Survey Data

Michael Dalton


After matching over 3 million loans from the $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program to administrative wage records, I estimate a doubly robust dynamic difference-in-difference event study showing robust, causal impacts of the loans on employment, wages, and opening status of establishments 7 months after PPP approval. Doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, I find a range of $20,000 to $34,000 of PPP spent per employee-month retained, with about 24% of the PPP money going towards wage retention in the baseline model. Small and low-wage establishments show the largest impact from PPP.