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Enhancing Import and Export Price Indexes: A New Methodology Using Administrative Trade Data

Dominic Smith, Austin Enderson-Ohrt, Matthew Fisher, Christopher Grant, Angel Wong, and Benjamin Wullbrandt

Abstract

U.S. import and export price indexes (MXPI) replaced unit value indexes forty years ago, given quality concerns of mismeasurement due to unit value bias. The administrative trade data underlying the unit values have greatly improved since that time as have index calculation methods and processing capabilities of computers. The transaction records are now more detailed, available electronically, and compiled monthly with little delay. Academic researchers use the administrative trade data to calculate unit values and study firms’ pricing decisions. Moreover, other national statistical offices (NSOs) produce unit value indexes based on administrative trade data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will begin using these data for about 40 percent of the MXPI beginning in 2025. Years of research show that the characteristics available in the data allow detailed items to be constructed that mimic a matched-item model. In fact, we estimate that using the administrative trade data for the MXPI between 2017 and 2023 would have had little impact on both import and export price index levels, changing them by less than one percentage point.