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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Office of Survey Methods Research > Publications > Browse Research Papers

Producing Estimates of International Migration for U.S. States: A Structural Time Series Approach Using Administrative Flight Data

Andrew Forrester and Srijeeta Mitra

Abstract

Recent efforts across the federal statistical system aim to produce more accurate population estimates that incorporate international migration. Research by the U.S. Census Bureau relies on new administrative data
to measure international migration into the U.S.; however, such data are often unavailable for subnational geographies, such as states. In this note, we leverage administrative data on inbound flights from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and airline passenger statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection to produce novel monthly, statewide estimates of immigrant admissions to the U.S. Our methodology utilizes structural time series models that directly model the trend and seasonal patterns of migration. Additional outlier detection enables us to adapt the estimates to real-time shocks to international travel. We conclude by discussing further work using the time series method, some potential pitfalls, and how researchers might adopt this approach when adapting administrative data to estimate U.S. immigration.