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Office of Survey Methods Research
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Published Year: 2026
Survey/Program(s): Current Population Survey (CPS)
Catalog: Statistical Survey Paper
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Missing Data and Composite Estimators in the Current Population Survey
Abstract
Until the U.S. government shutdown of October 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had consistently conducted the Current Population Survey (CPS) every month for decades. The CPS composite estimator, also known as an AK estimator, takes advantage of the 75 percent month-to-month sample overlap and reduces the standard error of over-the-month change. However, AK composite estimation relies on a measure of the change in overlapping panels which is not directly calculable for November 2025 since the prior month data is missing. In this paper, the alternative approach implemented in the November 2025 labor force estimates is developed, theoretical and empirical precision are evaluated, and the short-term and long-term impacts are considered.