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News Release Information

20-1946-CHI
Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Contacts Technical information: Media contact:
  • (312) 353-1138

Detroit Area Employment — September 2020

Local area employment down 9.8 percent over the year

Total nonfarm employment for the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan Statistical Area stood at 1,841,200 in September 2020, down 200,400, or 9.8 percent, over the year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See chart 1 and table 1.) During the same period, the national job count decreased by 6.4 percent. Regional Commissioner Jason Palmer noted that this was the seventh consecutive month of over-the-year employment declines in the Detroit metropolitan area. (The Technical Note at the end of this release contains metropolitan area definitions. All data in this release are not seasonally adjusted; accordingly, over-the-year analysis is used throughout.)

  Chart 1. Total nonfarm employment, over-the-year net change in the Detroit metropolitan area and its divisions, September 2015-September 2020

The Detroit metropolitan area is made up of two metropolitan divisions—separately identifiable employment centers within the larger metropolitan area. The Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills division, which accounted for 63 percent of the metropolitan area's employment, lost 115,000 jobs from September a year ago, a decline of 9.1 percent. The Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia Metropolitan Division, with the remaining 37 percent of the area’s employment, lost 85,400 jobs, down 11.0 percent, from September 2019 to September 2020.

Industry employment

In the Detroit metropolitan area, leisure and hospitality lost the largest number of jobs from September 2019 to September 2020, down 60,100. Local employment in this industry supersector declined 29.8 percent over the year; nationally, employment fell 21.7 percent in this sector. (See chart 2.)

Education and health services lost 37,900 jobs over the year in the Detroit area, a 12.0-percent decline. Nationwide, education and health services employment declined 4.7 percent.

  Chart 2. Total nonfarm and selected industry supersector employment, over-the-year percent change, United States and the Detroit metropolitan area, September 2020

Three other local supersectors each lost more than 20,000 jobs from September a year ago: professional and business services (-27,000); manufacturing (-25,300); and trade, transportation, and utilities (-23,400). Employment in Detroit’s professional and business services sector fell 6.9 percent compared to a 5.8-percent national decrease. Manufacturing employment was down 9.8 percent from a year ago; nationally, employment in this sector declined 5.1 percent. Employment in the local trade, transportation, and utilities sector was down 6.2 percent from a year ago; nationally, employment in this sector decreased 3.6 percent.

Metropolitan area employment data for October are scheduled to be released on Friday, November 20, 2020.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on September 2020 Establishment Survey Data

BLS has continued to review all estimation and methodological procedures for the establishment survey, which included the review of data, estimation processes, the application of the birth-death model, and seasonal adjustment. Business births and deaths cannot be adequately captured by the establishment survey as they occur. Therefore, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a model to account for the relatively stable net employment change generated by business births and deaths. Due to the impact of COVID-19, the relationship between business births and deaths is no longer stable. Typically, reports with zero employment are not included in estimation. For the August final and September preliminary estimates, CES included a portion of these reports in the estimates and made modifications to the birth-death model. In addition for both months, the establishment survey included a portion of the reports that returned to reporting positive employment from reporting zero employment. For more information, see www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.

In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits. The length of the reference period does vary across the respondents in the establishment survey; one-third of businesses have a weekly pay period, slightly over 40 percent a bi-weekly, about 20 percent semi-monthly, and a small amount monthly.


Technical Note

This release presents nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The CES survey is a Federal-State cooperative endeavor between State employment security agencies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Reliability of the estimates. The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability–that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Employment estimates. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions at www.bls.gov/sae/additional-resources/reliability-of-state-and-area-estimates.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states down to the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/sae/additional-resources/reliability-of-state-and-area-estimates.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/sae/publications/benchmark-article/annual-benchmark-article.pdf.

Area definitions. The substate area data published in this release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2018. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available at www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area includes Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne Counties in Michigan.

The Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Division includes Wayne County in Michigan.

The Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI Metropolitan Division includes Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, and St. Clair Counties in Michigan.

Additional information

More complete information on the technical procedures used to develop these estimates and additional data appear in Employment and Earnings, which is available online at www.bls.gov/opub/ee/home.htm. Detailed industry employment data for metropolitan areas from the CES program are available from the State and Area Employment databases at www.bls.gov/sae/data/.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Service: (800) 877-8339.

Table 1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry supersector, the United States and the Detroit metropolitan area and its components, not seasonally adjusted (numbers in thousands)
Area and Industry Sep
2019
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020(p)
Sep 2019 to
Sep 2020(p)
Net
change
Percent
change

United States

Total nonfarm

151,556 139,076 140,718 141,855 -9,701 -6.4

Mining and logging

738 630 620 619 -119 -16.1

Construction

7,700 7,427 7,461 7,415 -285 -3.7

Manufacturing

12,880 12,175 12,212 12,224 -656 -5.1

Trade, transportation, and utilities

27,575 26,095 26,403 26,591 -984 -3.6

Information

2,860 2,583 2,601 2,607 -253 -8.8

Financial activities

8,775 8,681 8,703 8,682 -93 -1.1

Professional and business services

21,479 20,010 20,220 20,239 -1,240 -5.8

Education and health services

24,257 22,646 22,835 23,125 -1,132 -4.7

Leisure and hospitality

16,759 13,152 13,231 13,124 -3,635 -21.7

Other services

5,894 5,409 5,445 5,433 -461 -7.8

Government

22,639 20,268 20,987 21,796 -843 -3.7

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area

Total nonfarm

2,041.6 1,799.9 1,827.1 1,841.2 -200.4 -9.8

Mining, logging, and construction

80.7 74.9 76.3 76.1 -4.6 -5.7

Manufacturing

257.6 228.5 231.1 232.3 -25.3 -9.8

Trade, transportation, and utilities

379.1 352.3 355.9 355.7 -23.4 -6.2

Information

26.4 24.7 24.8 25.1 -1.3 -4.9

Financial activities

121.8 117.9 118.2 116.6 -5.2 -4.3

Professional and business services

391.7 355.5 360.0 364.7 -27.0 -6.9

Education and health services

316.9 274.3 278.6 279.0 -37.9 -12.0

Leisure and hospitality

201.4 137.8 142.3 141.3 -60.1 -29.8

Other services

74.9 70.1 70.2 70.4 -4.5 -6.0

Government

191.1 163.9 169.7 180.0 -11.1 -5.8

Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Division

Total nonfarm

775.0 670.8 679.6 689.6 -85.4 -11.0

Mining, logging, and construction

23.9 21.2 21.7 21.7 -2.2 -9.2

Manufacturing

95.8 87.9 89.6 89.4 -6.4 -6.7

Trade, transportation, and utilities

153.1 142.4 144.0 144.7 -8.4 -5.5

Information

6.6 6.2 6.1 6.2 -0.4 -6.1

Financial activities

40.5 38.1 37.9 37.7 -2.8 -6.9

Professional and business services

126.9 111.0 111.4 112.3 -14.6 -11.5

Education and health services

131.0 110.9 112.2 113.2 -17.8 -13.6

Leisure and hospitality

79.3 49.4 51.0 52.9 -26.4 -33.3

Other services

28.1 26.4 26.3 26.4 -1.7 -6.0

Government

89.8 77.3 79.4 85.1 -4.7 -5.2

Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI Metropolitan Division

Total nonfarm

1,266.6 1,129.1 1,147.5 1,151.6 -115.0 -9.1

Mining, logging, and construction

56.8 53.7 54.6 54.4 -2.4 -4.2

Manufacturing

161.8 140.6 141.5 142.9 -18.9 -11.7

Trade, transportation, and utilities

226.0 209.9 211.9 211.0 -15.0 -6.6

Information

19.8 18.5 18.7 18.9 -0.9 -4.5

Financial activities

81.3 79.8 80.3 78.9 -2.4 -3.0

Professional and business services

264.8 244.5 248.6 252.4 -12.4 -4.7

Education and health services

185.9 163.4 166.4 165.8 -20.1 -10.8

Leisure and hospitality

122.1 88.4 91.3 88.4 -33.7 -27.6

Other services

46.8 43.7 43.9 44.0 -2.8 -6.0

Government

101.3 86.6 90.3 94.9 -6.4 -6.3

Footnotes
(p) Preliminary

 

Last Modified Date: Wednesday, November 04, 2020