Data on display
Projections of the U.S. economy, 2021–31
Kevin Dubina | September 2022
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the economy to grow by 2.1 percent each year, on average, from 2021 to 2031. As the chart shows, this would be slightly faster than the 2.0-percent growth averaged over the previous decade but slower than the growth rates in the 1980s and 1990s.
Annual average growth in real GDP from 1981–2021 to projected 2021–31 (percent)
| Decade |
Annual average growth in real GDP (percent) |
|
1981–91
|
3.0 |
|
1991–2001
|
3.5 |
|
2001–11
|
1.8 |
|
2011–21
|
2.0 |
|
2021–31, projected
|
2.1 |
Economic growth is measured as the increased value of goods and services produced in the United States—gross domestic product, or real GDP. Several factors are expected to impact projected GDP over the 2021–31 decade. As the economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 recession of 2020, demand for goods and services is expected to remain strong. However, the labor force (those who are working or looking for work) is projected to increase relatively slowly. This labor force constraint is expected to affect production of goods and services, which in turn will limit overall growth of the economy.
BLS uses an estimate of future GDP along with other assumptions about the economy to project industry output, which then is used to project employment in industries and occupations. To learn more, visit the BLS Employment Projections webpage.
Kevin Dubina is an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS.
Suggested citation:
Kevin Dubina, "Projections of the U.S. economy, 2021–31,"
Career Outlook,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
September 2022.
United States Department of Labor
