Aggregate Economy (Critical Variables)

BLS develops aggregate economic projections as a key input for its employment projections. This page contains the most recently released macroeconomic model solution.

Methodology

The methodology used to project the aggregate economy is described in detail on the Employment Projections program's methodology page and in the BLS Handbook of Methods. (PDF)

Data Tables

All aggregate economy tables in a single file (XLSX)

• Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
• Table 4.2 Real gross domestic product by major demand category
• Table 4.3 Nominal gross domestic product by major demand category
• Table 4.4 Personal consumption expenditures
• Table 4.5 Gross private domestic investment
• Table 4.6 Exports and imports of goods and services
• Table 4.7 Federal Government receipts and expenditures
• Table 4.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
• Table 4.9 State and local government receipts and expenditures
• Table 4.10 Personal income
• Table 4.11 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity

Most Recent Analysis

• Dubina, Kevin; Morisi, Teri; Rieley, Michael; and Wagoner, Andrea, "Projections Overview and Highlights, 2018–28," Monthly Labor Review, October 2019.

Other Aggregate Economy Analysis

• Aggregate economy projections
• Projections evaluations

Data for Researchers

• Historical time-series for critical aggregate variables, 2012–2018 and projected 2028 (XLSX)
  
  The critical variable file contains the following tables:
• Summary for the U.S. economy
• Real gross domestic product—demand categories, in billions of chained 2012 dollars
• Nominal gross domestic product—demand categories, in billions of current dollars
• Personal income and its disposition, in billions of current dollars
• Federal Government receipts and expenditures, in billions of current dollars
• State and local government receipts and expenditures, in billions of current dollars
• Foreign transactions in the NIPA's, in billions of current dollars
• Housing and construction
• Employment, hours, and labor force
• Productivity, costs, and prices

Contact

• Kevin Dubina, 202-691-6482

Last Modified Date: October 7, 2019