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Employment Projections
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Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
|
Exogenous variables |
Billions of chained 2012 dollars (unless noted) |
Annual rate of change |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1998 |
2008 |
2018 |
2028 |
1998–08 |
2008–18 |
2018–28 |
|
|
Monetary policy-related |
|||||||
|
Federal funds rate (percent) |
5.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
-9.7 |
-0.5 |
3.4 |
|
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
4.9 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
-11.9 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
|
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
5.3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
-3.5 |
-2.3 |
1.8 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax-related |
|||||||
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
23.3 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
25.3 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
28.9 |
22.5 |
28.0 |
28.0 |
-2.5 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
18.8 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
-2.2 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
|
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
39.3 |
37.8 |
23.4 |
23.7 |
-0.4 |
-4.7 |
0.1 |
|
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related |
|||||||
|
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
132.1 |
267.9 |
231.8 |
210.4 |
7.3 |
-1.4 |
-1.0 |
|
Defense gross investment |
93.6 |
174.6 |
151.1 |
157.7 |
6.4 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
|
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
53.4 |
106.5 |
121.9 |
100.3 |
7.1 |
1.4 |
-1.9 |
|
Nondefense gross investment |
81.4 |
109.2 |
123.8 |
127.0 |
3.0 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
|
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
200.8 |
371.2 |
578.1 |
812.2 |
6.3 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
|
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) |
205.6 |
461.6 |
734.4 |
1271.7 |
8.4 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
|
Energy-related |
|||||||
|
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
14.5 |
99.6 |
64.9 |
84.1 |
21.3 |
-4.2 |
2.6 |
|
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
12.8 |
98.1 |
71.0 |
89.4 |
22.6 |
-3.2 |
2.3 |
|
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
1.8 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
15.3 |
-10.4 |
4.0 |
|
Domestic oil product (billions of barrels) |
2.3 |
1.8 |
4.0 |
5.8 |
-2.4 |
8.3 |
3.8 |
|
Demographic-related |
|||||||
|
Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions) |
276.2 |
304.4 |
327.5 |
350.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
Population aged 16 and over (in millions) |
205.2 |
233.8 |
257.8 |
279.5 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
| Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau. | |||||||
Last Modified Date: September 4, 2019
