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Employment Projections

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.4 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 2004, 2014, 2024, and projected 2034 (Numbers in billions of chained 2017 dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Category 2004 2014 2024 2034 Compound annual rate of change,
2004–14
Compound annual rate of change,
2014–24
Compound annual rate of change,
2024–34

Inflation and monetary policy related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

1.4 0.1 5.1 3.0 -23.7 49.9 -5.2

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

1.4 0.0 5.2 2.8 -31.9 67.4 -6.1

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

4.3 2.5 4.2 3.8 -5.1 5.2 -1.2

Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.3 2.9 2.3

Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.0 2.6 2.4

Fiscal policy, tax related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

21.4 23.2 21.4 21.4 0.8 -0.8 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

23.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 0.8 0.0 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

24.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 1.4 0.0 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

15.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 2.9 0.0 0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

35.0 35.0 21.0 19.0 0.0 -5.0 -1.0

Fiscal policy, Government outlays related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

233.8 222.4 266.4 267.0 -0.5 1.8 0.0

Defense gross investment

139.2 148.1 200.1 202.7 0.6 3.1 0.1

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

96.8 110.5 149.4 131.0 1.3 3.1 -1.3

Nondefense gross investment

101.4 121.3 198.8 162.8 1.8 5.1 -2.0

Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

332.3 495.0 963.2 1,287.5 4.1 6.9 2.9

Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars)

304.4 600.0 1,081.3 2,072.6 7.0 6.1 6.7

Energy related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

41.4 93.3 76.5 76.4 8.5 -2.0 0.0

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

38.2 99.8 80.5 79.0 10.1 -2.1 -0.2

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

5.4 4.0 1.6 4.8 -2.9 -8.8 11.6

Domestic oil production (billions of barrels)

2.0 3.2 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.2 0.0

Note: Data is unavailable for values denoted with a "—".

Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau. Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Census Bureau

Last Modified Date: August 28, 2025