Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1996, 2006, 2016, and projected 2026
Exogenous variables |
Billions of chained 2009 dollars
(unless noted)
|
Annual rate of change |
1996 |
2006 |
2016 |
2026 |
1996–06 |
2006–16 |
2016–26 |
Monetary policy-related: |
Federal funds rate (percent) |
5.3 |
5.0 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-0.6 |
-22.4 |
23.8 |
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
5.1 |
4.8 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
-0.6 |
-23.8 |
25.4 |
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)
|
6.4 |
4.8 |
1.8 |
4.4 |
-2.9 |
-9.1 |
9.0 |
| |
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
22.5 |
21.4 |
23.2 |
23.2 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
24.3 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
-0.6 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
27.8 |
22.5 |
28.0 |
28.0 |
-2.1 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
25.7 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
-5.2 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
39.1 |
37.7 |
37.3 |
36.9 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
| |
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
124.8 |
218.0 |
195.2 |
165.8 |
5.7 |
-1.1 |
-1.6 |
Defense gross investment |
96.2 |
147.9 |
135.1 |
156.7 |
4.4 |
-0.9 |
1.5 |
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
46.5 |
92.9 |
106.4 |
109.1 |
7.2 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
Nondefense gross investment |
74.7 |
99.6 |
113.4 |
118.5 |
2.9 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
181.4 |
340.8 |
555.5 |
833.0 |
6.5 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) |
194.9 |
399.2 |
655.8 |
1179.4 |
7.4 |
5.1 |
6.0 |
| |
Energy-related: |
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
22.2 |
66.1 |
43.2 |
82.4 |
11.6 |
-4.2 |
6.7 |
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
20.6 |
65.1 |
43.5 |
88.5 |
12.2 |
-3.9 |
7.4 |
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
2.0 |
6.1 |
2.1 |
4.6 |
11.9 |
-10.2 |
8.3 |
Domestic oil product (billions of barrels) |
2.4 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
-2.4 |
5.8 |
1.3 |
| |
Demographic-related: |
Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions) |
269.8 |
298.7 |
323.5 |
350.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
Population aged 16 and over (in millions) |
200.6 |
228.8 |
253.5 |
278.2 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.
|
Back to top
Last Modified Date: October 24, 2017
|
