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Exogenous variables |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2000–10 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2010–20 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2020–30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inflation and monetary policy-related: |
|||||||
Federal funds rate (percent) |
6.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
-30.0 |
7.9 |
21.5 |
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
6.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
-31.5 |
10.5 |
20.6 |
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
6.0 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
-6.1 |
-12.0 |
12.7 |
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.1 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
|||||||
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
23.3 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
25.3 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
-1.0 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
28.9 |
22.5 |
28.0 |
28.0 |
-2.4 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
18.8 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
-2.2 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 |
35.0 |
21.0 |
21.0 |
0.0 |
-5.0 |
0.0 |
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
|||||||
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
143.3 |
298.2 |
265.5 |
270.5 |
7.6 |
-1.2 |
0.2 |
Defense gross investment |
95.5 |
182.0 |
177.0 |
179.4 |
6.7 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
54.4 |
132.5 |
129.0 |
118.5 |
9.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.8 |
Nondefense gross investment |
85.2 |
124.2 |
140.5 |
142.5 |
3.8 |
1.2 |
0.1 |
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
233.1 |
505.2 |
872.8 |
953.9 |
8.0 |
5.6 |
0.9 |
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) |
219.1 |
513.4 |
833.0 |
1634.4 |
8.9 |
5.0 |
7.0 |
Energy-related: |
|||||||
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
30.1 |
79.4 |
39.2 |
86.1 |
10.2 |
-6.8 |
8.2 |
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
28.4 |
79.9 |
41.8 |
88.8 |
10.9 |
-6.3 |
7.8 |
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
3.4 |
4.1 |
1.5 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
-9.7 |
7.7 |
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels) |
2.1 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
-0.6 |
7.5 |
2.6 |
Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau |
Last Modified Date: September 8, 2021