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Employment Projections
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Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
| Category | 2005 | 2015 | 2025 | 2035 | Compound annual rate of change, 2005–15 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2015–25 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2025–35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Inflation and monetary policy related: |
|||||||
|
Federal funds rate (percent) |
3.2 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | -27.3 | 41.3 | -2.9 |
|
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
3.2 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | -33.6 | 54.8 | -3.8 |
|
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
4.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 3.8 | -6.7 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index |
— | — | — | — | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
|
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index |
— | — | — | — | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax related: |
|||||||
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
21.4 | 23.2 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
23.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
23.8 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
15.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 | 35.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 |
|
Fiscal policy, government outlays related: |
|||||||
|
Federal defense, intermediate goods and services purchased (billions of chained 2017 dollars) |
236.5 | 216.0 | 285.8 | 279.4 | -0.9 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
|
Federal defense, gross investment (billions of chained 2017 dollars) |
148.4 | 146.9 | 207.7 | 225.3 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
|
Federal nondefense, intermediate goods and services purchased (billions of chained 2017 dollars) |
101.3 | 117.4 | 141.0 | 126.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -1.1 |
|
Federal nondefense, gross investment (billions of chained 2017 dollars) |
102.9 | 126.9 | 192.3 | 167.5 | 2.1 | 4.2 | -1.4 |
|
Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
343.5 | 533.1 | 979.1 | 1,229.8 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 |
|
Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars) |
332.1 | 634.9 | 1,221.3 | 2,304.0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
|
Energy related: |
|||||||
|
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
56.5 | 48.7 | 65.3 | 90.8 | -1.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
|
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
54.5 | 52.7 | 68.9 | 94.7 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
|
Price of natural gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
7.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 5.2 | -10.9 | -0.7 | 9.3 |
|
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels) |
1.9 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 3.7 | -0.8 |
|
Note: Data is unavailable for values denoted with a "—". Historical data are from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Energy Information Administration; and U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. |
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Last modified date: August 27, 2026