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Category | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 2034 | Compound annual rate of change, 2004–14 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2014–24 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2024–34 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inflation and monetary policy related: |
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Federal funds rate (percent) |
1.4 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 3.0 | -23.7 | 49.9 | -5.2 |
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
1.4 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 2.8 | -31.9 | 67.4 | -6.1 |
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
4.3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | -5.1 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— | — | — | — | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— | — | — | — | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
Fiscal policy, tax related: |
|||||||
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
21.4 | 23.2 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
23.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
24.5 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
15.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 | 35.0 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 |
Fiscal policy, Government outlays related: |
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Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
233.8 | 222.4 | 266.4 | 267.0 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Defense gross investment |
139.2 | 148.1 | 200.1 | 202.7 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
96.8 | 110.5 | 149.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | -1.3 |
Nondefense gross investment |
101.4 | 121.3 | 198.8 | 162.8 | 1.8 | 5.1 | -2.0 |
Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
332.3 | 495.0 | 963.2 | 1,287.5 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 |
Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars) |
304.4 | 600.0 | 1,081.3 | 2,072.6 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 6.7 |
Energy related: |
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Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
41.4 | 93.3 | 76.5 | 76.4 | 8.5 | -2.0 | 0.0 |
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
38.2 | 99.8 | 80.5 | 79.0 | 10.1 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
5.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 4.8 | -2.9 | -8.8 | 11.6 |
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels) |
2.0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
Note: Data is unavailable for values denoted with a "—". Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau. Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Census Bureau |
Last Modified Date: August 28, 2025