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Employment Projections

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.4 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1999, 2009, 2019, and projected 2029

Exogenous variables

Billions of chained 2012 dollars (unless noted)

Annual rate of change

1999

2009

2019

2029

1999–09

2009–19

2019–29

Inflation and monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

5.0

0.2

2.2

2.4

-29.1

29.7

1.2

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

4.8

0.2

2.1

2.3

-29.2

30.2

1.0

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

5.6

3.3

2.1

2.8

-5.3

-4.1

2.6

Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.6

1.8

2.1

Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.2

1.7

2.1

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

23.3

21.4

21.4

21.4

-0.8

0.0

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

25.3

23.0

25.0

25.0

-1.0

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

28.9

22.5

28.0

28.0

-2.4

2.2

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

18.8

15.0

20.0

20.0

-2.2

2.9

0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

35.0

35.0

21.0

21.0

0.0

-5.0

0.0

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

145.1

286.8

253.5

226.4

7.1

-1.2

-1.1

Defense gross investment

94.5

180.8

160.4

163.0

6.7

-1.2

0.2

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

50.8

121.1

129.3

108.9

9.1

0.7

-1.7

Nondefense gross investment

86.3

114.3

128.9

141.8

2.8

1.2

1.0

Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

219.2

458.1

611.4

870.3

7.7

2.9

3.6

Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)

208.7

493.0

800.3

1347.9

9.0

5.0

5.4

Energy-related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

19.2

61.7

57.0

88.7

12.4

-0.8

4.5

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

17.8

61.7

64.3

94.7

13.2

0.4

3.9

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

2.0

3.5

1.9

2.5

5.7

-6.0

3.1

Domestic oil product (billions of barrels)

2.1

2.0

4.5

5.9

-0.9

8.6

2.9

Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable.
Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.

 

Last Modified Date: September 4, 2020