Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

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Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

Exogenous variables

Billions of chained 2012 dollars (unless noted)

Annual rate of change

1998

2008

2018

2028

1998–08

2008–18

2018–28

Monetary policy-related

Federal funds rate (percent)

5.4

1.9

1.8

2.6

-9.7

-0.5

3.4

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

4.9

1.4

2.0

2.8

-11.9

3.5

3.7

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

5.3

3.7

2.9

3.5

-3.5

-2.3

1.8

Fiscal policy, tax-related

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

23.3

21.4

21.4

21.4

-0.8

0.0

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

25.3

23.0

25.0

25.0

-0.9

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

28.9

22.5

28.0

28.0

-2.5

2.2

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

18.8

15.0

20.0

20.0

-2.2

2.9

0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

39.3

37.8

23.4

23.7

-0.4

-4.7

0.1

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

132.1

267.9

231.8

210.4

7.3

-1.4

-1.0

Defense gross investment

93.6

174.6

151.1

157.7

6.4

-1.4

0.4

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

53.4

106.5

121.9

100.3

7.1

1.4

-1.9

Nondefense gross investment

81.4

109.2

123.8

127.0

3.0

1.3

0.3

Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

200.8

371.2

578.1

812.2

6.3

4.5

3.5

Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)

205.6

461.6

734.4

1271.7

8.4

4.8

5.6

Energy-related

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

14.5

99.6

64.9

84.1

21.3

-4.2

2.6

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

12.8

98.1

71.0

89.4

22.6

-3.2

2.3

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

1.8

7.5

2.5

3.7

15.3

-10.4

4.0

Domestic oil product (billions of barrels)

2.3

1.8

4.0

5.8

-2.4

8.3

3.8

Demographic-related

Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions)

276.2

304.4

327.5

350.9

1.0

0.7

0.7

Population aged 16 and over (in millions)

205.2

233.8

257.8

279.5

1.3

1.0

0.8

Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.

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Last Modified Date: September 4, 2019