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Employment Projections
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Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
|
Category |
2001 |
2011 |
2021 |
2031 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2001–11 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2011–21 |
Compound annual rate of change, 2021–31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Inflation and monetary policy-related: |
|||||||
|
Federal funds rate (percent) |
3.9 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.6 |
-30.5 |
-2.4 |
41.8 |
|
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
3.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-34.2 |
-1.7 |
49.1 |
|
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
5.0 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
-5.7 |
-6.4 |
8.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
|
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
|||||||
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
22.9 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
24.9 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
-0.8 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
28.4 |
22.5 |
28.0 |
28.0 |
-2.3 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
18.8 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
-2.2 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
|
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 |
35.0 |
21.0 |
21.0 |
0.0 |
-5.0 |
0.0 |
|
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
|||||||
|
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
157.5 |
284.3 |
245.3 |
236.1 |
6.1 |
-1.5 |
-0.4 |
|
Defense gross investment |
100.8 |
173.5 |
179.9 |
174.0 |
5.6 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
|
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
64.2 |
116.2 |
157.4 |
117.4 |
6.1 |
3.1 |
-2.9 |
|
Nondefense gross investment |
87.2 |
124.7 |
144.2 |
145.6 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
|
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
261.3 |
472.5 |
1090.7 |
976.7 |
6.1 |
8.7 |
-1.1 |
|
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) |
242.6 |
535.6 |
826.0 |
1597.8 |
8.2 |
4.4 |
6.8 |
|
Energy-related: |
|||||||
|
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
25.8 |
95.1 |
68.0 |
91.8 |
13.9 |
-3.3 |
3.0 |
|
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
24.4 |
111.0 |
70.7 |
95.1 |
16.3 |
-4.4 |
3.0 |
|
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
0.0 |
-1.4 |
-0.1 |
|
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels) |
2.1 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
5.5 |
-0.2 |
7.1 |
2.9 |
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau |
|||||||
Last Modified Date: September 8, 2022