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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

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Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

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Table 4.4 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 2000, 2010, 2020, and projected 2030
(Numbers in billions of chained 2012 dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Exogenous variables	2000	2010	2020	2030	Compound annual rate of change, 2000–10	Compound annual rate of change, 2010–20	Compound annual rate of change, 2020–30
Inflation and monetary policy-related:
Federal funds rate (percent)	6.2	0.2	0.4	2.6	-30.0	7.9	21.5
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)	6.0	0.1	0.4	2.4	-31.5	10.5	20.6
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)	6.0	3.2	0.9	3.0	-6.1	-12.0	12.7
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)	—	—	—	—	2.4	1.7	2.1
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)	—	—	—	—	2.1	1.7	2.3
Fiscal policy, tax-related:
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)	23.3	21.4	21.4	21.4	-0.8	0.0	0.0
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)	25.3	23.0	25.0	25.0	-1.0	0.8	0.0
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)	28.9	22.5	28.0	28.0	-2.4	2.2	0.0
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)	18.8	15.0	20.0	20.0	-2.2	2.9	0.0
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)	35.0	35.0	21.0	21.0	0.0	-5.0	0.0
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased	143.3	298.2	265.5	270.5	7.6	-1.2	0.2
Defense gross investment	95.5	182.0	177.0	179.4	6.7	-0.3	0.1
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased	54.4	132.5	129.0	118.5	9.3	-0.3	-0.8
Nondefense gross investment	85.2	124.2	140.5	142.5	3.8	1.2	0.1
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)	233.1	505.2	872.8	953.9	8.0	5.6	0.9
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)	219.1	513.4	833.0	1634.4	8.9	5.0	7.0
Energy-related:
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)	30.1	79.4	39.2	86.1	10.2	-6.8	8.2
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)	28.4	79.9	41.8	88.8	10.9	-6.3	7.8
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)	3.4	4.1	1.5	3.1	1.7	-9.7	7.7
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels)	2.1	2.0	4.1	5.4	-0.6	7.5	2.6
Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau

Last Modified Date: September 8, 2021