An official website of the United States government
United States Department of Labor
United States Department of Labor
The .gov means it's official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information,
make sure you're on a federal government site.
The site is secure.
The
https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any
information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.
Employment Projections
SHARE ON:
Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
|
Exogenous variables |
Billions of chained 2012 dollars (unless noted) |
Annual rate of change |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1999 |
2009 |
2019 |
2029 |
1999–09 |
2009–19 |
2019–29 |
|
|
Inflation and monetary policy-related: |
|||||||
|
Federal funds rate (percent) |
5.0 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
-29.1 |
29.7 |
1.2 |
|
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
4.8 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
-29.2 |
30.2 |
1.0 |
|
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
5.6 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
-5.3 |
-4.1 |
2.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2.2 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
|||||||
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
23.3 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
25.3 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
-1.0 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
28.9 |
22.5 |
28.0 |
28.0 |
-2.4 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
18.8 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
-2.2 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
|
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 |
35.0 |
21.0 |
21.0 |
0.0 |
-5.0 |
0.0 |
|
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
|||||||
|
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
145.1 |
286.8 |
253.5 |
226.4 |
7.1 |
-1.2 |
-1.1 |
|
Defense gross investment |
94.5 |
180.8 |
160.4 |
163.0 |
6.7 |
-1.2 |
0.2 |
|
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
50.8 |
121.1 |
129.3 |
108.9 |
9.1 |
0.7 |
-1.7 |
|
Nondefense gross investment |
86.3 |
114.3 |
128.9 |
141.8 |
2.8 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
219.2 |
458.1 |
611.4 |
870.3 |
7.7 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
|
Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) |
208.7 |
493.0 |
800.3 |
1347.9 |
9.0 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
|
Energy-related: |
|||||||
|
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
19.2 |
61.7 |
57.0 |
88.7 |
12.4 |
-0.8 |
4.5 |
|
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
17.8 |
61.7 |
64.3 |
94.7 |
13.2 |
0.4 |
3.9 |
|
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
2.0 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
-6.0 |
3.1 |
|
Domestic oil product (billions of barrels) |
2.1 |
2.0 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
-0.9 |
8.6 |
2.9 |
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau. |
|||||||
Last Modified Date: September 4, 2020