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Employment Projections
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Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
Other available formats: (XLSX)
| Category | 2003 | 2013 | 2023 | 2033 | Compound annual rate of change, 2003-13 | Compound annual rate of change, 2013-23 | Compound annual rate of change, 2023-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Inflation and monetary policy-related: |
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|
Federal funds rate (percent) |
1.1 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 2.6 | -20.8 | 46.5 | -6.3 |
|
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
1.0 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 2.4 | -24.7 | 56.5 | -7.6 |
|
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
4.0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | -5.2 | 5.4 | -2.3 |
|
Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— | — | — | — | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
|
Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate) |
— | — | — | — | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
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|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
22.0 | 23.2 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
23.7 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
26.2 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
16.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
35.0 | 35.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 |
|
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
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|
Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
214.6 | 238.4 | 251.5 | 252.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
|
Defense gross investment |
128.5 | 157.0 | 189.0 | 194.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
|
Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased |
89.2 | 112.0 | 169.7 | 155.1 | 2.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 |
|
Nondefense gross investment |
100.2 | 120.3 | 198.3 | 183.2 | 1.8 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
|
Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
321.7 | 450.1 | 952.2 | 1,093.5 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 1.4 |
|
Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars) |
276.7 | 572.8 | 944.4 | 1,714.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
|
Energy-related: |
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|
Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
31.1 | 97.9 | 77.6 | 88.9 | 12.1 | -2.3 | 1.4 |
|
Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
28.8 | 108.7 | 82.5 | 92.0 | 14.2 | -2.7 | 1.1 |
|
Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) |
4.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | -3.2 | -4.9 | 0.7 |
|
Domestic oil production (billions of barrels) |
2.1 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
|
Note: Dash indicates data that is not computable or not applicable. Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau. Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Census Bureau |
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Last Modified Date: August 29, 2024