Department of Labor Logo United States Department of Labor
Dot gov

The .gov means it's official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Employment Projections

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.4 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 2000, 2010, 2020, and projected 2030
(Numbers in billions of chained 2012 dollars, unless otherwise noted)

Exogenous variables

2000

2010

2020

2030

Compound annual rate of change, 2000–10

Compound annual rate of change, 2010–20

Compound annual rate of change, 2020–30

Inflation and monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

6.2

0.2

0.4

2.6

-30.0

7.9

21.5

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

6.0

0.1

0.4

2.4

-31.5

10.5

20.6

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

6.0

3.2

0.9

3.0

-6.1

-12.0

12.7

Consumer Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.4

1.7

2.1

Gross Domestic Product, Price Index (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

2.1

1.7

2.3

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

23.3

21.4

21.4

21.4

-0.8

0.0

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

25.3

23.0

25.0

25.0

-1.0

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

28.9

22.5

28.0

28.0

-2.4

2.2

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

18.8

15.0

20.0

20.0

-2.2

2.9

0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

35.0

35.0

21.0

21.0

0.0

-5.0

0.0

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

143.3

298.2

265.5

270.5

7.6

-1.2

0.2

Defense gross investment

95.5

182.0

177.0

179.4

6.7

-0.3

0.1

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

54.4

132.5

129.0

118.5

9.3

-0.3

-0.8

Nondefense gross investment

85.2

124.2

140.5

142.5

3.8

1.2

0.1

Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

233.1

505.2

872.8

953.9

8.0

5.6

0.9

Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)

219.1

513.4

833.0

1634.4

8.9

5.0

7.0

Energy-related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

30.1

79.4

39.2

86.1

10.2

-6.8

8.2

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

28.4

79.9

41.8

88.8

10.9

-6.3

7.8

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

3.4

4.1

1.5

3.1

1.7

-9.7

7.7

Domestic oil production (billions of barrels)

2.1

2.0

4.1

5.4

-0.6

7.5

2.6

Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable.
Source: Historical data: U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Census Bureau

Last Modified Date: September 8, 2021