Employment Projections Data Overview

Definitions

Sources of the data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics develops the National Employment Matrix as part of its ongoing Employment Projections program, and it presents employment for approximately 300 detailed industries and 800 detailed occupations. Data from the matrix underlie the data on this website and the information on occupational employment growth presented in the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

The primary sources used to develop the matrix are the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, and the Current Population Survey (CPS).

Occupational classification

The occupational structure of the National Employment Matrix is based on the structure used by the OES program, which is currently using a hybrid classification system as it transitions from the 2010 to the 2018 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system.

Data on self-employed workers are based on Current Population Survey (CPS) data for equivalent occupations. A crosswalk is used to distribute CPS data to occupations in the National Employment Matrix.

Industry classification

The industrial structure of the National Employment Matrix is based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The exception is self-employment, which is not a NAICS industry but is treated as one for analysis in the Employment Projections methodology. For more information about self-employment, please see the Handbook of Methods.

Projections methodology

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of industrial and occupational employment are developed in a series of six interrelated steps, each of which is based on a different procedure or model and related assumptions: labor force, aggregate economy, final demand (GDP) by consuming sector and product, industry output, employment by industry, and employment by occupation. The results produced by each step are key inputs to following steps, and the sequence may be repeated multiple times to allow feedback and to ensure consistency.

Projections updates

National employment projections are developed annually. The next release will cover the 2020–2030 decade, and is scheduled to be published on this web site in late 2021.

Note

The accuracy of projections for individual occupations is subject to error because of the many unknown factors that may affect the economy over the projection period. Furthermore, while occupational employment projections and related job outlook information can provide valuable inputs to the career decision-making process, they should not be the sole basis for a choice of career.

 

Last Modified Date: September 1, 2020