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Employment Projections

Labor supply and factors affecting productivity

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.1 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 2001, 2011, 2021, and projected 2031
(Numbers in millions, unless otherwise noted)

Category

2001

2011

2021

2031

Compound annual rate of change, 2001–11

Compound annual rate of change, 2011–21

Compound annual rate of change, 2021–31

Labor supply:

Total population

285.3

312.1

332.1

347.3

0.9

0.6

0.4

Civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older

215.1

239.6

261.4

281.0

1.1

0.9

0.7

Civilian labor force

143.8

153.6

161.2

168.9

0.7

0.5

0.5

Civilian labor force participation rate (percent)

66.8

64.1

61.7

60.1

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

Civilian household employment

136.9

139.9

152.6

161.7

0.2

0.9

0.6

Nonagricultural payroll employment

132.1

131.9

146.1

154.2

0.0

1.0

0.5

Unemployment rate (percent)(1)

4.7

8.9

5.4

4.3

6.5

-5.0

-2.2

Productivity:

Private nonfarm business output per hour, chained 2012 dollars

50.4

63.9

72.5

90.4

2.4

1.3

2.2

Footnotes:

(1) Unemployment rates calculated and used within the projection model are made with less precise rounded values then those made by the Current Population Survey (CPS). Consequently, they may on occasion differ slightly from what is published by the CPS.

Source: Historical data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Last Modified Date: September 19, 2022