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Economic News Release
EPP EPP Program Links

Employment Projections: 2022-2032 Summary

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, September 6, 2023 		               USDL-23-1941

Technical information:   (202) 691-5700  *  *
Media contact: 	         (202) 691-5902  *

                         EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2022-2032

The U.S. economy is projected to add almost 4.7 million jobs from 2022 to 2032, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 169.1 
million and grow 0.3 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.2-percent annual growth 
recorded over the 2012-22 decade.

Projected employment growth is driven by labor force growth, which in turn is constrained by
population growth. Total population is projected to grow slightly slower than previous decades,
at 0.7 percent annually over the projections period, although population growth is concentrated
among individuals aged 75 and over because of the aging of the baby-boom generation. Because
older age groups have lower labor force participation rates than prime age workers, overall
labor force participation rates are projected to decline. Despite all these constraints, real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 1.9 percent over the 2022-32 decade, remaining
largely consistent with the growth over the 2002-12 and 2012-22 periods.
|										       |
|                         Occupational Outlook Handbook				       |
|										       |
| The BLS projections are the foundation of the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH),   |
| one of the nation's most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects  |
| BLS employment projections for the 2022–32 decade. The updated OOH is available      |
| online at							       |

The health care and social assistance sector is projected to not only grow most rapidly of any
sector, but it is also projected to create about 45 percent of all the projected job gains from
2022 to 2032. Various healthcare occupations that are involved with the increased care of the 
aging population are projected to experience large and rapid employment increases. Home health
and personal care aides, nurse practitioners, and medical and health services managers are three
occupations that are projected to experience both large increases in employment and rapid growth. 

The computer and mathematical occupational group is also projected to experience much faster than
average employment growth. The expanding digital presence of businesses and consumers will produce
a massive amount of data that these workers collect, organize, analyze, and protect. Employment
in occupations such as data scientists, statisticians, and information security analysts is
projected to grow more than 11 times the average rate.

Highlights of the BLS 2022-32 projections for the population and labor force, macroeconomy,
industry employment, and occupational employment are included below.

Population and Labor Force

 --The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to increase by 18.7 million to a level
   of 282.6 million in 2032, which is less than the 20.7 million increase that occurred over the
   2012-22 decade. The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow 0.7 percent 
   annually over the 2022-32 decade, slowing slightly from the 0.8-percent annual growth rate that
   occurred in the decade from 2012 to 2022. Population growth rates have been slowing for several
   decades; the projected 0.7-percent annual growth represents one of the slowest growth rates in
   the data series' history.

 --The slower birth rates of the 1970's will cause the population ages 55 to 64 to decrease much 
   faster than any other age group. Meanwhile, the 65 and older age group will experience fast
   growth as all baby boomers age into that category by 2032. This age group's projected 14.4 
   million increase in population accounts for over three quarters of the overall projected 
   population growth. Of that 14.4 million increase, about 10.6 million comes from the 75 and over
   age group, as most of the baby boomers age into that bracket.

 --Slower projected growth in the population is expected to constrain growth in the civilian labor
   force over the projections period. The civilian labor force is expected to increase from 164.3
   million in 2022 to 170.7 million in 2032, an increase of almost 6.5 million. This translates to
   a projected annual growth rate of 0.4 percent, slower than the 0.6-percent annual growth rate
   exhibited during the 2012-22 decade.

 --The labor force participation rate is projected to fall from 62.2 percent in 2022 to 60.4 percent
   in 2032. The principal factor driving the projected decline in the labor force participation rate
   is a greater share of individuals over the age of 65. Despite this age group having the highest
   projected labor force participation rate increases over the projections period, the participation
   rate of this age group is still projected to be much lower than that of the prime working age 
   group, those ages 25 to 54.

 --The participation rate for prime working age women, ages 25-54, is projected to increase slightly
   from 76.4 percent in 2022 to 76.7 in 2032. For prime working age men, however, the participation
   rate is projected to decline 0.2 percent annually in the 2022-32 decade, from 88.6 percent to 
   86.7 percent.


 --Real GDP is projected to grow 1.9 percent annually over the 2022-32 decade. This is slightly lower
   than the 2012-22 decade's annual rate of 2.1 percent, but the same as the annual rate during the
   2002-12 decade. However, the projected growth rate in the 2022-32 decade is much lower than the 3.0
   percent and above rates seen during the 1980s and 90s, when population and labor force growth was

Industry Employment

 --Total employment is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually from 164.5 million in 2022 to 169.1 million
   in 2032. This projected growth is much slower than the 1.2-percent annual employment growth in the
   2012-22 decade, which was marked by strong recovery growth following the 2007-09 Great Recession and
   2020 COVID-19 recession.

 --The health care and social assistance sector is projected to add about 2.1 million jobs from 2022 to
   2032, the most of any sector and about 45 percent of all new jobs. This sector is also projected to grow
   faster than any other sector, growing at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Four of the 10 fastest growing
   industries over the projections period come from within this sector, with the individual and family
   services industry projected to grow the fastest of those four–at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. Employment
   growth in the health care and social assistance sector is expected to be driven by both the aging 
   population and a higher prevalence of chronic conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. 

 --The computer systems design and related services industry is the eighth fastest growing industry, growing
   at a rate of 1.8 percent annually over the 2022-32 decade. This industry is also seen adding 474,800 jobs
   over the projections period, the second most of any industry. Employment opportunities in the computer
   systems design and related services industry are expected to arise because of demand for information
   technology and cybersecurity products and services.

 --Growth in e-commerce is expected to drive employment growth in the transportation and warehousing sector.
   BLS projects this sector to grow 0.8 percent annually from 2022 to 2032, adding close to 570,000 jobs
   over that period. The couriers and messengers industry together with the warehousing and storage industry 
   account for about 80 percent of this sector's projected job growth.

 --The continued consumer shift to online shopping is projected to drive the loss of 529,100 jobs in the 
   retail trade sector. While omnichannel strategies such as buy online pick-up in store (BOPIS) may support
   some employment, employment losses within this sector are still expected.

 --The manufacturing sector is projected to lose 113,400 jobs over the 2022-32 decade as manufacturers
   continue to automate processes to improve production efficiency and throughput. However, stronger demand
   for electric vehicle batteries and energy battery storage systems is expected to result in rapid employment
   growth in battery production. That growth is evident in the other electrical equipment and component
   manufacturing industry, which is the manufacturing industry with the fastest growth at a rate of 3.0 
   percent annually over the projections period, gaining 52,700 jobs over the decade.

Occupational Employment

 --Healthcare support occupations are projected to grow the fastest of all occupational groups, at 15.4
   percent from 2022 to 2032. In addition to growing rapidly, one occupation from this group, home health and
   personal care aides, is also projected to experience the largest increase in new jobs of any occupation
   over the 2022-32 projections period. Projected to gain 804,600 jobs, this occupation is projected to 
   account for approximately 1 of every 6 new jobs, and by 2032, would represent the largest occupation
   in the economy. The growing elderly population, which typically has increased healthcare needs compared
   to younger groups, will in turn increase demand for caregiving and therapy services.

 --As healthcare facilities increasingly use team-based healthcare models, demand will increase for nurse
   practitioners (44.5-percent growth) and physician assistants (26.5-percent growth) to provide patient care
   that would otherwise be provided by a doctor. Nurse practitioners also have the largest projected job 
   growth for occupations that typically require a master's degree. 

 --Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to experience 15.2-percent growth from 2022-32. The
   marked increase in the number and severity of cyberattacks and data breaches on U.S. businesses is expected
   to lead to greater demand for cybersecurity products and services. This increase, in turn, will fuel demand
   for the information security analysts occupation, which is projected to grow 31.5 percent over the 10-year
   period between 2022 and 2032, making it the fifth fastest growing occupation in the economy.

 --The projected 2.6-percent decline in employment over the projections period in the sales and related
   occupational group reflects the continued consumer shift to online shopping. Cashiers, an occupation within
   this group, are currently the fifth largest occupation in the economy and projected to be significantly
   affected by these changes in the retail sector, shedding a total of 348,100 jobs, more than any other 
   occupation in the economy.

 --The expanding digital presence of businesses and consumers alike is expected to result in a significant
   increase in the volume of data generated. Employment of data scientists, statisticians, actuaries, and
   operations research analysts are each projected to grow more than 20.0 percent as demand surges for workers
   who can model, interpret, and analyze the ever-growing amount of data. 

 --As renewable energy generation expands due to lower production costs, government policies, and technological
   advancements in renewable energy infrastructure and battery storage, demand for the occupations tied to 
   their operation will expand as well. Employment of wind turbine service technicians is projected to grow
   44.9 percent from 2022 to 2032, the fastest growth of any occupation for the projections decade, while
   solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow 22.3 percent. However, because these are small occupations, 
   the fast projected growth is expected to result in only about 5,000 new jobs for wind turbine service
   technicians and about 6,600 new jobs for solar photovoltaic installers over the projections decade. 

 --Despite the overall decline in employment in production occupations, driven by automation of production
   activities, some occupations employed in this group are projected to experience strong employment growth
   over the projections period. The combination of strong demand for semiconductors and incentives provided
   through the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act is expected to 
   lead to an 8.0-percent increase in employment in semiconductor processing technicians over the projections

More Information

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about more than 500 detailed occupations in over
300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy.

Each profile features the 2022–32 projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work activities,
wages, education and training requirements, and more.

 --The OOH is available online at A mobile version of the OOH is available for iOS
   ( and Android 
   ( devices.

 --Field of degree pages are available online at 

 --Detailed information on the 2022–32 labor force and macroeconomy projections and on the 2022–32 industry
   and occupation projections will appear in two separate Monthly Labor Review articles in September 2023.

 --Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at

 --Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

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Last Modified Date: September 06, 2023