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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Current Population Survey > Home

Experimental series accounting for January 2025 population control effects

The Current Population Survey (CPS) estimates released with The Employment Situation for January 2025 on February 7, 2025, incorporated new population controls. Each year, new controls are introduced to reflect the U.S. Census Bureau’s updated population estimates. This year’s population control adjustment resulted in an increase of 2.9 million people (or 1.1 percent) in the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older. The adjustment increased the civilian labor force by 2.1 million, including an increase of 2.0 million in employment and an increase of 105,000 in unemployment. The number of people not in the labor force increased by 765,000.

The January 2025 adjustment was large relative to adjustments in past years. It reflects both updated methodology and new information about net international migration. (For additional information, see the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 Methodology and Release Notes documentation. Questions about the population estimates and the methodology used to develop them should be directed to the Census Bureau.)

The January 2025 population control adjustment affects the comparability of data between December 2024 and January 2025, particularly for the national labor force and employment levels. (Official CPS estimates for December 2024 and earlier months have not been revised, in accordance with usual practice.) Although the population control adjustment appears entirely in the January 2025 CPS data, the update actually reflects the cumulative change back to the 2020 Census blended population base. However, the population change in this year’s update did not occur evenly throughout the 2020-2024 period, as it largely reflects an increase in net international migration that was concentrated in recent years.

New experimental series

BLS produced new experimental time series measures, including the number of people in the labor force and the employed, for the period from April 2020 to December 2024. These experimental time series account for the size and timing of the large population changes reflected in the January 2025 population control adjustment.

The experimental series use the time series available from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 population estimates that form the basis of the January 2025 CPS population control adjustment. The experimental series use a simple ratio adjustment to apply population changes to major labor force levels in each month, as described in the methodology section below.

XLSX table of CPS experimental time series accounting for January 2025 population control effects, April 2020–December 2024

The experimental series do not show the annual effects of the population control adjustments that are seen in the official series. Because of the large population adjustment this year, the labor force and employment levels in the experimental series are considerably higher than those in the official series, more so in recent years.

The experimental series show how the timing of changes in the size of the population may have affected the major labor force levels in recent years. These series provide historical context that is roughly consistent with estimates for 2025 that reflect this year’s population control adjustment. Note that the experimental series adjusts data back to April 2020, the decennial census reference point. Data users should not combine these experimental series with official estimates for March 2020 or earlier periods that use a different decennial population base.

Methodology and limitations of these experimental series

BLS constructed a ratio for each month using the value of the new Vintage 2024 population estimate relative to the official population estimate (ratio=Population_Vintage2024/Population_official). This ratio is then applied to the major labor force levels for that month (for example, LF_experimental=ratio*LF_official and Employed_experimental=ratio*Employed_official). Because the levels are increased proportionally, there is no effect on rates, such as the labor force participation rate, employment-population ratio, or unemployment rate.

BLS chose the ratio adjustment method instead of revising official historical data, in part, because the Census Bureau’s updated net international migration methodology will not fully reflect adjustments by demographic characteristics until a future vintage.

These experimental series assume that changes in the overall population apply proportionally to changes in the major labor force levels. While we know the size and approximate timing of the increase in population due to the increase in net international migration, the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 methodology does not reflect the unique demographic characteristics and geographic distribution of some recent immigrant groups. Labor force participation and the likelihood of employment differ across demographic groups. Therefore, without more detailed demographic information about the population change during the time period, these experimental series cannot encompass the full impact of this population adjustment on the size of the major labor force measures. BLS has not produced ratio-adjusted estimates for any other measures, or for different population groups, because of this lack of detailed information.

Because the ratio-adjustment method does not account for changes in the demographic composition of the population, these experimental series are not strictly comparable to estimates produced using standard CPS estimation methods, including the December 2024 estimates that are provided with the 2025 population control adjustment.

Data users should note that the experimental series will not match the official CPS estimates in BLS publications and on the BLS website.

Discontinued research series smoothed for population control adjustments

In the past, BLS had provided a labor force and employment research series that smoothed out the level shifts from population control adjustments. These research series distributed adjustments back uniformly over the entire period, effectively a linear wedge. This smoothing methodology assumed that the population growth was distributed evenly throughout the adjustment period. However, the January 2025 adjustment was not distributed evenly from April 2020 through December 2024—it was concentrated in recent years. The previously used smoothing method would not accurately reflect the uneven timing of the population changes associated with the current adjustment. Hence, the experimental series use a different method, ratio-adjustment, that accounts for variations in population growth throughout the period.

What’s next?

The Census Bureau’s net international migration estimation methodology remains a work in progress. The Census Bureau will continue to develop methodological improvements and incorporate new information on net international migration into future vintage estimates of the population. Questions about the population estimates and the methodology used to develop them should be directed to the Census Bureau.

As more detailed information becomes available in later vintage estimates of the population, BLS will evaluate whether official historical labor force estimates can be revised.

Last Modified Date: February 7, 2025