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JOLTS Experimental State Estimates MethodologyThe JOLTS sample of 16,000 establishments does not directly support the production of sample based state estimates. However, state estimates have been produced by combining the available sample with model-based estimates, and smoothed by taking a 3-month moving average. These data are experimental. As such, they have not been subject to the same level of review as the current official JOLTS national and regional estimates. BLS is inviting data users to comment on both the methodology used to produce these estimates and on the usefulness of these data. The eventual goal is to produce and provide JOLTS state-level estimates on a monthly basis. These estimates consist of four major estimating models; the Composite Regional model (an unpublished intermediate model), the Synthetic model (an unpublished intermediate model), the Composite Synthetic model (published historical series through the most current benchmark year), and the Extended Composite Synthetic model (published current-year monthly series). The Composite Regional model uses JOLTS microdata, JOLTS regional published estimates, and Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment data. The Composite Synthetic model uses JOLTS microdata and Synthetic model estimates derived from monthly employment changes in microdata from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), and JOLTS published regional data. The Extended Composite Synthetic extends the Composite Synthetic estimates by ratio-adjusting the Composite Synthetic by the ratio of the current Composite Regional model estimate to the Composite Regional model estimate from one year ago. The Extended Composite Synthetic model (and its major component—the Composite Regional model) is used to extend the Composite Synthetic estimates because all of the inputs required by this model are available at the time monthly estimate are produced. In contrast, the Composite Synthetic model (and its major component—the Synthetic model) can only be produced when the latest QCEW data are available. The plan is to use Extended Composite Synthetic model estimates to extend the Composite Synthetic model estimates during the annual JOLTS re-tabulation process. The extension of the Composite Synthetic model using current data-based Composite Regional model estimates will ensure that the Composite Synthetic model estimates reflect current economic trends. The following outlines each model in a non-technical summary format. Each model is summarized separately, and answers the following:
Composite Regional ModelWhat Approach?The Composite Regional approach calculates state-level JOLTS estimates from JOLTS microdata using sample weights, and the adjustments for non-response (NRAF). The Composite Regional estimate is then benchmarked to CES state-supersector employment to produce state-supersector estimates. The JOLTS sample, by itself, cannot ensure a reasonably sized sample for each state-supersector cell. The small JOLTS sample results in quite a number of state-supersector cells that lack enough data to produce a reasonable estimate. To overcome this issue, the state-level estimates derived directly from the JOLTS sample are augmented using JOLTS regional estimates when the number of respondents is low (that is, less than 30). This approach is known as a composite estimate which leverages the small JOLTS sample to the greatest extent possible and supplements that with a model-based estimate. Previous research has found that regional industry estimates are a good proxy at finer levels of geographical detail. That is, one can make a good prediction of JOLTS estimates at the regional-level using only national industry-level JOLTS rates. The assumption in this approach is that one can make a good prediction of JOLTS estimates at the state-level using only regional industry-level JOLTS rates. In this approach, the JOLTS microdata-based estimate is used, without model augmentation, in all state-supersector cells that have 30 or more respondents. The JOLTS regional estimate will be used, without a sample-based component, in all state-supersector cells that have fewer than five respondents. In all state-supersector cells with 5–30 respondents an estimate is calculated that is a composition of a weighted estimate of the microdata-based estimate and a weighted estimate of the JOLTS regional estimate. The weight assigned to the JOLTS data in those cells is proportional the number of JOLTS respondents in the cell (weight=n∕30, where n is the number of respondents). What data inputs?
How are data used?
How are outputs produced?
What are the limitations?
What more is needed?These estimates are based upon a model. There is, as of yet, no methodology in place that can produce an estimate of error for the estimates the model produces. Research on a methodology to produce an error estimate is currently underway. The Composite Regional supersector estimates are summed across state industry supersectors to the nonfarm level. Synthetic ModelWhat approach?The Synthetic model differs fundamentally from the Composite Regional model. The Synthetic approach does not use JOLTS microdata but rather it uses data from the QCEW that have been linked longitudinally (Longitudinal Database—LDB), the QCEW-LDB. The Synthetic model attempts to convert QCEW-LDB monthly employment change microdata into JOLTS job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations data. What data inputs?
How are data used?
How are the outputs produced?
What are the limitations?
What more is needed?These estimates are based upon a model. There is, as of yet, no methodology in place that can produce any estimate of error for the estimates the model produces. Research on a methodology to produce an error estimate is currently underway. The Synthetic model may be augmented in the future with the Census Bureau’s QWI series of hires and separations. Composite Synthetic ModelWhat approach?The Composite Synthetic model is nearly identical to the Composite Regional model. The primary difference is the use of the Synthetic model estimates (described in the first section) rather than JOLTS published regional estimates when there is an insufficient amount of JOLTS microdata to produce a state-supersector estimate. Just like the Composite Regional approach, the JOLTS microdata-based estimate is used in all state-supersector cells that have 30 or more respondents. However, in contrast to the Composite Regional approach, the Composite Synthetic approach uses the Synthetic estimate in all state-supersector cells that have fewer than five respondents. In all state-supersector cells with 5–30 respondents an estimate is calculated that is a composition of a weighted estimate of the microdata-based estimate and a weighted estimate of the Synthetic estimate. The weight assigned to the JOLTS data in those cells is proportional the number of JOLTS respondents in the cell (weight=n∕30, where n is the number of respondents). The Composite Synthetic supersector estimates are summed across state-supersectors to the nonfarm level. Composite Synthetic estimates are averaged across 3 months, creating a 3-month moving average. What data inputs?
How are data used?
How are outputs produced, and what are the limitations?
What more is needed?These estimates are based upon a model. There is, as of yet, no methodology in place that can produce any estimate of error for the estimates the model produces. Research on a methodology to produce an error estimate is currently underway. Extended Composite Synthetic ModelWhat Approach?The Extended Composite Synthetic model is designed to project the Composite Synthetic forward until QCEW-LDB data are available to produce Composite Synthetic estimates. The Composite Synthetic estimates are extended using the ratio of the current Composite Regional state industry estimate to the Composite Regional state industry estimate from one year ago. This approach ensures that the Extended Composite Synthetic state estimates reflect current JOLTS regional and industry-level economic conditions. The Extended Composite Synthetic estimates reflects current JOLTS state economic conditions to the extent that sufficient JOLTS microdata are available. What data inputs?
How are data used?The Composite Synthetic model estimates are produced at a lag since QCEW-LDB data are only available at a 6–9 month lag relative to JOLTS data. The Composite Regional model estimates, in contrast, are not produced at a lag and are available concurrent with JOLTS data. Therefore, Composite Synthetic estimates can be extended by ratio-adjusting the Composite Synthetic estimates by the ratio of current Composite Regional estimates to the Composite Regional estimates from one year ago at the state-industry-level as follows: Where
State-level estimates are produced by summing the Extended Composite Synthetic estimates over industry. How are outputs produced, and what are the limitations?
What more is needed?These estimates are based upon a model. There is, as of yet, no methodology in place that can produce any estimate of error for the estimates the model produces. Research on a methodology to produce an error estimate is currently underway. Last Modified Date: January 10, 2020 |