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Upcoming LAUS Geography and Data Changes in 2025

Each decade, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program implements new federal statistical areas delineations issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) following the decennial census. In addition to these geographic changes, the 2024 annual processing cycle in early 2025 will incorporate synthetic intercensal population controls for model-based areas and updated American Community Survey (ACS) and decennial census inputs to substate estimation.

Geographic changes
Intercensal population controls for modeled areas
Updated inputs to substate estimation
Summary of data changes by area type and timing of publication

Geographic Changes

With the release of January 2025 data on March 17, 2025, the LAUS estimates for federal statistical areas, including metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, metropolitan divisions, and combined statistical areas, will be updated to reflect the delineations based on the 2020 Census, as published in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01. For the six New England states, New England City and Town Areas (NECTAs) will be discontinued, and LAUS will publish the areas and divisions made up of counties or county equivalents. New geography for all areas will be carried back to the series beginnings in January 1990.

Three of the program's seven modeled substate areas (those that are estimated using time-series models similar to those for states) had geographic changes in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01: the Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL metropolitan division (formerly Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights) dropped a county; the Cleveland, OH metropolitan area (formerly Cleveland-Elyria) added a county; and the former Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA metropolitan division split into two metropolitan divisions. For the latter, rather than continuing to model the metropolitan division, the LAUS program will switch to modelling the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metropolitan area. Data for these three modeled areas and their respective balances of state will be re-estimated back to their series beginnings. Due to CPS sample availability, the series start year for the Cleveland and Seattle metropolitan areas will become 1994, rather than 1990.

In addition, the current eight counties in Connecticut will be replaced by nine planning regions, which serve as county equivalents. See the Federal Register Notice for more information. This change will also be carried back to January 1990.

See the LAUS Geographic Concepts page for more information about LAUS geography, including the OMB delineations currently in use.

Intercensal population controls for modeled areas

Changes in the decennial census basis for the civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 and older (CNP16+) recontrol series often entail level breaks due to "error of closure," which is defined as the difference between the final, post-censal estimates for April of the new decennial base year as extrapolated 10 years past the prior census and the enumerated data from the latest census. Intercensal estimates are produced each decade by adjusting the existing time series of postcensal estimates for a decade to smooth the transition from one decennial census count to the next. Previously, during the 2021 annual processing cycle in early 2022, the LAUS program implemented wedged population recontrols for the 2010s as a temporary measure until intercensal state population controls for the decade became available. These wedged population recontrols were implemented from January 2017 through March 2020, resulting in breaks in some areas between December 2016 and January 2017.

For the 2024 annual processing cycle, BLS has developed synthetic state intercensal population controls for CNP16+ from January 1980 through April 2020. These population data were developed using standard demographic methods historically employed by the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program. However, the endpoints for the intercensal series for the 2010s are the April 2020 "blended base" estimates, rather than the enumerated count. In addition to addressing the breaks from the 2020 Census, these controls will help smooth breaks appearing in previous decennial census years and improve the time series quality of the published state CNP16+ data. These CNP16+ intercensal population controls will be used to recontrol the Current Population Survey (CPS) employment status estimates used as inputs to the LAUS time series models for states, census divisions, and modeled substate areas prior to model re-estimation back to the series beginnings. In addition, they will replace existing published CNP16+ data for all states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division, and New York City in the public BLS database.

Updated inputs to substate estimation

Below the state level, the LAUS program produces estimates using the Handbook method, a building-block approach that utilizes inputs from a number of administrative and survey data sources, including the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) and the decennial census. While many inputs, such as non-agricultural wage and salary employment estimates and unemployment insurance claims counts, are updated both monthly and annually, certain inputs to Handbook estimation are generally only updated once per decade.

Dynamic residency ratios (DRRs) are used to adjust place-of-work employment estimates to the place-of-residence concept of the CPS, using commutation data from the ACS. In 2025, DRRs will be updated to reflect relationships from the most recent 2016-2020 ACS "Journey to Work" dataset.
The Handbook method uses ratios developed from the ACS to allocate inputs from higher levels of geography to lower levels. In 2025, these ratios will be updated using the most recent 5-year ACS dataset, for 2019-2023.
Several aspects of the Handbook method incorporate population data annually that are affected by closing error when official population series switch to a new decennial census basis. Population-based components for the Handbook method will be updated in 2025 to smooth out the closing error for the 2020 Census.

Summary of data changes by area type and timing of publication

All areas published by the LAUS program will be affected by the changes described above, and data for all areas will be replaced in the time-series database in 2025.

Estimates for census divisions, states, the District of Columbia, New York City, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metropolitan Division, and the balances of New York and California will have their model-based series re-estimated from 1976 forward to incorporate new intercensal population controls, as well as the typical annual updates to the covariate inputs. The published CNP16+ series for these areas will also be replaced. These estimates will be published on March 5, 2025, in conjunction with the Regional and State Annual Averages news release for 2024.
Modeled estimates for the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI metropolitan area and the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL metropolitan division and their respective balances of state will incorporate updated intercensal population controls and input revisions back to 1990. Additionally, the Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL metropolitan division, the Cleveland, OH metropolitan area, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metropolitan area, and the respective balances of state will be re-estimated back to 1994 to reflect the updated geographic delineations. These data will be published along with the preliminary January 2025 state estimates on March 17, 2025.
Estimates for non-modeled metropolitan areas, metropolitan divisions, micropolitan areas, small labor market areas, and counties will be adjusted for the new geographic delineations and controlled to the new model area totals back to the series beginnings in 1990. Data reflecting these changes will be published on March 17, 2025. The data for 1990-2015 will be considered final at that point, while the data for 2016 forward will be marked as "provisional." Final data for these non-modeled areas from 2016-2024, reflecting the once-per-decade ACS and decennial census input updates for the Handbook method, as well as the typical annual input revisions, will be published on April 18, 2025.
Areas below the county level, including cities, city parts, and minor civil divisions, are disaggregated from their respective counties. Cities and towns in the six New England states, which were previously served as the building-blocks for the Handbook method in those states, will now be disaggregated from the county level, using the same methods as all other states. Data for all years will be ratio-adjusted to coincide with new county controls. As with the other substate areas, revised data for these areas will be published on March 17, 2025, with estimates for 1990-2015 considered final and estimates for 2016-2024 marked as "provisional." Final data for 2016-2024 reflecting updated disaggregation ratios, as well as the typical annual updates to state-supplied inputs, will be published on April 18, 2025.

Last Modified Date: December 12, 2024