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September 1997

Evaluating the 1995 BLS labor force projections

Howard N Fullerton, Jr.

This article examines the accuracy of BLS labor force projections for 1995. More accurate projections of population, shorter projection periods, and reduced labor force growth made BLS labor force projections to 1995 marginally better than those to 1990. The most significant errors were in the cases of very young workers and older workers, two age groups with relatively small numbers of workers. The projection of the total civilian labor force (129.2 million) was 3.1 million lower than the actual 1995 labor force.

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