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February 1997

Which industries are sensitive to business cycles?

Jay M. Berman, Janet Pfleeger

An analysis of the 1994-2005 projections can be used to identify industries that are projected to move differently with business cycles in the future than in the past, and to identify the industries and occupations that are most prone to business cycle swings. This article examines those industries in which demand and employment are most sensitive to business cycle movements over time. The study will be used in subsequent projections rounds to ensure consistency between an industry?s historical correlation with GDP and the projected correlation.

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