After falling sharply in March and April 2020, the labor force participation rate—the percentage of the working-age population (ages 16 and older) working or actively looking for work1—in both New York State (henceforth, New York) and the nation as a whole rose gradually in 2021 and 2022. (See chart 1.) During those years, a number of studies and newspaper articles noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had decreased the likelihood that some people, especially those over age 65, would participate in the labor force.2 One study indicated that because the U.S. population was aging, participation rates were unlikely to return to their prepandemic levels.3 By December 2023, however, the participation rate for New York had recovered, whereas the national rate had not.
In this article, I examine the effects of changes in the age distribution of New York’s population and in the labor force participation rates of different groups defined in terms of age and sex (age–sex groups) on the state’s overall participation rate from 2019 to 2023. I find that while an aging population did exert downward pressure on New York’s participation rate over this period, changes in the rate were driven mostly by changes in the participation rates of the various age–sex groups. The remainder of the article is organized as follows. The next section briefly introduces the measurement approach and data used in the analysis. The two sections that follow discuss recent trends in, first, population aging and labor force participation in the United States and, second, New York’s population distribution by age and sex. The section after that compares actual and fixed-weight measures of participation, isolating the effects of changes in the participation rates of age–sex groups. The final section summarizes the results of the analysis and concludes.
Methodology and data
The overall labor force participation rate for New York can be analyzed as a weighted average of the participation rates of different age–sex groups. Changes in the overall rate can then be attributed to changes in the population shares of age–sex groups, changes in the participation rates of those groups, or both. For this article, I create a fixed-weight measure of participation, using weights representing the shares of age groups for men and women, and compare changes in the actual measure of participation with changes in the fixed-weight measure. For comparison purposes, I also present a fixed-weight measure for the United States as a whole.
Fixed-weight measures of participation: calculation
For any year t, the total labor force participation rate for a given population can be expressed as a weighted average of the participation rates of the age–sex groups for that population:
TOTALPRt = AGESEXPRi,t × AGESEXWTi,t ,
where TOTALPRt is the actual participation rate for the total population in year t, AGESEXPRi,t is the participation rate for age–sex group i in year t, and AGESEXWTi,t is the weight of age–sex group i in year t. Each weight represents an age–sex group’s share of the total population in year t. Because the total participation rate is composed only of weights and participation rates for age–sex groups, any change in the overall rate must be due to changes in weights, changes in participation rates of age–sex groups, or both.
To control for the effects of changes in the age distribution of the population, I construct a fixed-weight measure of participation, using the following formula:
FWTOTPRt = AGESEXPRi,t × AGESEXWTi,2019 ,
where FWTOTPRt is the fixed-weight participation rate for the total population in year t. I use age–sex weights for 2019 for all years. Given that the weights for the total participation rate do not change over time, changes in the rate must be due solely to changes in the participation rates of age–sex groups. Because the most detailed data for New York are published for seven age groups, the fixed-weight measures for New York and the nation also use those seven groups.4
Data
For New York, data on labor force participation by age and sex are published as annual averages. For this reason, this article focuses on changes in annual average participation rates, as measured by the Current Population Survey (CPS).5 Annual averages from the CPS can differ from the official BLS estimates for New York, which are produced by using signal-plus-noise models.6 As seen in chart 2, changes in the CPS annual averages are not as large as the monthly changes shown in chart 1, but the declines in labor force participation in 2020 are still apparent. (The 1.4-percentage-point decline for the nation in that year was the largest in the history of the series.) Similarly, chart 2 shows noticeable participation rate increases in 2022 and 2023 for both New York and the United States.
Participation rates and aging in the United States: insights from previous research
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the labor force participation rate in the United States for people ages 16 and older was declining. Examining the factors responsible for this decline, a 2016 study by Steven F. Hipple found that participation rates tend to decline when people reach age 62 (the age at which they first become eligible for Social Security benefits) and again when they reach the eligibility age for full benefits.7 Hipple noted that, in 2001, people in the 55-and-older age group accounted for 27 percent of the population, a figure that rose to 35 percent in 2015. (Similarly, the share of people in the 65-and-older age group, which had much lower participation rates, rose from 16 percent in 2001 to 19 percent in 2015.) According to the author, the rising population shares of older age groups “put downward pressure on the overall labor force participation rate” between 2001 and 2015.8 From 2015 to 2019, however, the overall participation rate increased slightly, although the population shares of older age groups continued to rise. This development was likely due to the fact that the unemployment rate over this period declined from 5.3 to 3.7 percent, and tight labor markets have historically been associated with higher participation rates.9
Several studies have examined changes in labor force participation since the onset of the pandemic. In a 2022 study, Bart Hobijn and Aysegül Sahin identified the cyclical (as opposed to structural) components of changes in participation during recent recoveries, finding that the cyclical component accounted for 1.5 percentage points of the 1.7-percentage-point decline in participation between February 2020 and June 2021.10 Although the authors’ study did not explicitly address the issue of aging, it implied that aging and other demographic factors could explain only a small portion of the decline in participation. Another 2022 study, this time by the Council of Economic Advisers, compared the change in the size of the labor force between February 2020 and January 2022 with what that change would have been had the participation rate returned to its prepandemic level. According to this analysis, the aging of the population accounted for 28 percent of the decline in participation, while “excess retirements” (i.e., retirements beyond those which would have been expected given the aging of the population) accounted for an additional 33 percent. The analysis also forecast that the labor force participation rate would continue to decline, partly because of the aging of baby boomers.11 In a followup study (2023), the Council noted that, in December 2022, the overall participation rate was still below its prepandemic peak, a shortfall due to an aging population and an increased propensity of older workers to retire.12
Recent trends in New York’s population distribution by age and sex
In recent decades, the population of New York has been aging, mirroring trends at the national level. For example, New Yorkers ages 65 and older accounted for 17 percent of the state’s population in 2010, but by 2019, the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, that share had risen to 22 percent. Conversely, over the same period, the share of the 25-to-54 age group, which has the highest rate of labor force participation, declined from 52 to 48 percent.
Because women tend to live longer than men, they account for a larger share of the population, and their age distribution differs from that of men. In both New York and the nation as a whole, women made up just over half (52 percent) of the population ages 16 and older in 2019. In the most detailed data on age published for New York, the 25-to-54 and 55-and-older age groups are broken down into subgroups. In 2019, the 65-and-older age subgroup accounted for the largest population shares for both men and women in New York. (See chart 3.) However, the share of people ages 65 and older was higher among women (23.2 percent) than among men (19.9 percent). For both men and women, the population distribution by age group in 2019 was similar for New York and the nation.
The age distribution of New York’s population continued to change during and after the pandemic. From 2019 to 2023, the share of men in the 65-and-older age group rose by 1.0 percentage point, while the share of men in the 25-to-54 age group declined by 0.6 percentage points.13 (See chart 4.) Over the same period, the share of women in the 65-and-older age group also increased by 1.0 percentage point, while the share of women in the 25-to-54 age group declined by 0.7 percentage points. Nationally, the shares of men and women in the 65-and-older age group increased by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, while the shares of men and women in the 25-to-54 age group decreased by 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively.
Analysis and results
Before examining how and why actual and fixed-weight labor force participation rates changed over the 2019–23 period, it is useful to briefly consider their behavior between the prepandemic years of 2010 and 2019, particularly during the 2010–15 and 2015–19 periods. As shown in chart 5, between 2010 and 2015, the actual participation rate for New York declined by 1.6 percentage points, while the fixed-weight measure, which reflects the effects of changes in the participation rates of age–sex groups, declined by 0.3 percentage points. Therefore, most of the decline in the state’s actual rate during this period was due to changes in the distribution of the population by age–sex group. From 2015 to 2019, the actual participation rate for New York edged down by 0.5 percentage points, whereas the fixed-weight measure rose by 0.8 percentage points. Therefore, in both periods, an aging population, reflected in changes in weights, exerted downward pressure on the state’s actual participation rate. The rise in the participation rates for many of the age–sex groups during the 2015–19 period was due mainly to a tightening labor market. While the CPS annual average unemployment rate for New York was 5.3 percent or higher from 2010 through 2015, it was 4.8 percent or lower from 2016 through 2019.
The patterns for the nation during the 2010–19 period were similar to those for New York. (See chart 5.) From 2010 to 2015, the actual participation rate for the United States declined by 2.0 percentage points, while the fixed-weight measure declined by 0.6 percentage points. These figures indicate that changes in the age distribution of the U.S. population were responsible for most of the decrease in the actual rate. From 2015 to 2019, the fixed-weight measure for the United States rose by more than the actual participation rate, indicating that an aging population exerted downward pressure on labor force participation across the nation.
Next, consider the years since 2019. From 2019 to 2020, the actual and fixed-weight participation measures for New York both declined by 1.0 percentage point. (See chart 5.) This convergence indicates that the entire change in the state’s actual rate over this period was due to changes in the participation rates of age–sex groups. As shown in appendix table A-1, most of these groups saw declining participation rates between 2019 and 2020. The declines for men and women ages 25 to 54 contributed most substantially to the declines in the actual and fixed-weight measures, a result reflecting that, together, these groups accounted for almost half of New York’s working-age population. (See appendix table A-2.14) In 2021, the actual and fixed-weight measures moved in different directions, but in 2022 and 2023, they both moved upward. The increases from 2021 to 2023 were likely due to a persistently tight labor market, with the statewide CPS unemployment rate dropping from 7.0 percent in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022 and 4.3 percent in 2023.
The increases in participation rates between 2021 and 2023 were widespread among age–sex groups, just like the declines from 2019 to 2020. Over the entire 2019–23 period, New York’s actual participation rate rose by 0.6 percentage points, whereas the fixed-weight measure rose by 1.3 percentage points, indicating that changes in the age distribution of the state’s population lowered the actual rate by 0.7 percentage points. However, the general similarity between the movements in the two rates suggests that changes in the participation rates of age–sex groups, rather than an aging population, accounted for most of the movement in the state’s actual rate since 2019.
Charts 6a and 6b show the labor force participation rates of different age–sex groups in New York for selected years during the 2019–23 period. (See also appendix table A-1.) For both men and women, the 25-to-54 age group had the highest participation rates for all years shown, and the 65-and-older age group had the lowest rates. Moreover, the participation rate for men ages 25 to 54 was 0.9 percentage points higher in 2023 than in 2019, while the rate for women in the same age group was 4.2 percentage points higher in 2023 than in 2019. By contrast, in 2023, the participation rates for teenagers, men ages 20 to 24, and women ages 65 and older were still below their 2019 levels.
For the United States, the actual and fixed-weight participation measures followed the same pattern as did those for New York, falling sharply in 2020 and rebounding somewhat in 2022 and 2023. In 2023, the actual participation rate for the nation was still 0.5 percentage points below its 2019 level. The fixed-weight measure, however, inched up 0.2 percentage points between 2019 and 2023, indicating that changes in the weights of age–sex groups had reduced the actual rate by 0.7 percentage points. Moreover, as was the case for New York, the participation rates for prime-age men and women (those ages 25 to 54) at least matched their prepandemic levels, whereas the rates for some groups of younger and older workers failed to recover. (See appendix table A-1.)
Conclusion
This article has examined how changes in the age distribution of New York’s population and in the labor force participation rates of different age–sex groups affected the state’s total participation rate from 2019 to 2023. Over this period, the shares of men and women in the 65-and-older age group increased, continuing an upward trend from the preceding decade. At the same time, among people ages 25 to 54, a downward trend in shares continued for women but not for men. The same patterns were observed at the national level.
By comparing actual with fixed-weight measures of labor force participation, this article has shown that an aging population did put downward pressure on New York’s participation rate between 2019 and 2023. However, changes in the participation rates of different age–sex groups, rather than an aging population, were the main drivers of a decline in participation in 2020 and increases in 2022 and 2023.
Appendix
Table A-1. Labor force participation rates, by sex and age group, New York State and United States, 2019–23| Population group | Participation rate (percent of population) | Change (percentage points) |
|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2019–20 | 2020–23 | 2019–23 |
|---|
New York State, total | 60.5 | 59.5 | 59.3 | 60.3 | 61.1 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
|---|
New York State, men | 66.5 | 65.1 | 65.0 | 65.7 | 66.5 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 29.5 | 24.6 | 24.9 | 28.0 | 27.8 | -4.9 | 3.2 | -1.7 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 64.2 | 66.4 | 66.0 | 61.4 | 62.9 | 2.2 | -3.5 | -1.3 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 87.1 | 86.1 | 86.8 | 87.4 | 88.0 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 69.4 | 68.7 | 67.1 | 68.6 | 72.3 | -0.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
|---|
65 years and older | 25.1 | 23.2 | 24.7 | 24.5 | 25.3 | -1.9 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
|---|
New York State, women | 55.1 | 54.3 | 54.1 | 55.4 | 56.1 | -0.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 26.4 | 23.7 | 28.5 | 29.7 | 22.8 | -2.7 | -0.9 | -3.6 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 62.3 | 60.4 | 58.4 | 64.0 | 63.5 | -1.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 74.3 | 73.9 | 74.8 | 76.6 | 78.5 | -0.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 59.8 | 60.2 | 60.2 | 57.7 | 61.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
|---|
65 years and older | 17.3 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | 0.2 | -1.7 |
|---|
United States, total | 63.1 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 62.2 | 62.6 | -1.4 | 0.9 | -0.5 |
|---|
United States, men | 69.2 | 67.7 | 67.6 | 68.0 | 68.1 | -1.5 | 0.4 | -1.1 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 34.9 | 34.1 | 35.9 | 36.3 | 36.5 | -0.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 74.0 | 71.0 | 73.0 | 73.2 | 72.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 89.1 | 87.9 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 89.1 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 71.5 | 70.8 | 70.4 | 71.0 | 71.6 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
|---|
65 years and older | 24.7 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 23.2 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.5 |
|---|
United States, women | 57.4 | 56.2 | 56.1 | 56.8 | 57.3 | -1.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 35.7 | 34.9 | 36.6 | 37.2 | 37.4 | -0.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 70.4 | 67.5 | 68.6 | 68.7 | 70.1 | -2.9 | 2.6 | -0.3 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 76.0 | 75.1 | 75.3 | 76.4 | 77.4 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 59.6 | 59.1 | 59.2 | 59.6 | 60.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
|---|
65 years and older | 16.4 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 15.5 | 16.0 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.4 |
|---|
Table A-2. Population distribution, by sex and age group, New York State and United States, 2019–23| Population group | Percent of population | Change, 2019–23 (percentage points) |
|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|
New York State, total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
New York State, men | 47.8 | 47.8 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 48.3 | 0.5 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 23.6 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 0.0 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.5 | -0.3 |
|---|
65 years and older | 9.5 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 0.6 |
|---|
New York State, women | 52.2 | 52.2 | 52.2 | 51.8 | 51.7 | -0.5 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 24.5 | 24.4 | 23.8 | 24.1 | 23.9 | -0.6 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -0.5 |
|---|
65 years and older | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 0.4 |
|---|
United States, total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
United States, men | 48.4 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 48.7 | 48.9 | 0.5 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.8 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.6 | -0.2 |
|---|
65 years and older | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 0.7 |
|---|
United States, women | 51.6 | 51.6 | 51.6 | 51.3 | 51.1 | -0.5 |
|---|
16 to 19 years | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
|---|
20 to 24 years | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
|---|
25 to 54 years | 24.7 | 24.5 | 24.4 | 24.3 | 24.0 | -0.7 |
|---|
55 to 64 years | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | -0.6 |
|---|
65 years and older | 11.3 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 0.6 |
|---|
United States Department of Labor
