09/08/2026

Why is candy so expensive these days?

Candy, often considered an everyday luxury, has gotten more expensive in recent years. Multiple BLS measures, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Import Price Index (MPI) for confectionery products, show large price increases for confectionery materials and end products. This article examines the price changes, explores the many complex factors that have influenced candy prices, and shows how consumer behavior has changed as prices have risen. 

Food prices have continued to climb steadily in the United States in recent years, and candy prices have played a role in that trend. The higher prices of sweets may have been especially noticeable for Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day, and Easter celebrations because these combined holiday sales account for about two-thirds of yearly confectionery sales.¹ The Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Import Price Index (MPI) for confectionery products reflect these increases. From December 2019 to November 2024, the PPI for confectionery materials (like cocoa products and corn sweeteners) increased 87.6 percent and confectionery end products (like candy, chewing gum, and nuts) increased 13.9 percent.² The CPI for candy and chewing gum increased 32.0 percent during that period.³ The Import Price Index for sugar and confectionery product manufacturing increased 73.3 percent.⁴ The increase in prices of the products that these candy price indexes reflect are described in this article.

Many factors contributed to rising candy prices. For the U.S confectionery industry, approximately 65 percent of ingredient costs come from three material inputs: cocoa beans (28.4 percent), sugar (8.7 percent), and corn syrup (28.1 percent).⁵ There have been supply shortages of inputs, such as cocoa, with cocoa stocks largely dropping since the 2021–22 season.⁶ Further, drought in Mexico (generally the largest source of raw and refined sugar imports for the United States) reduced sugar production from fiscal year 2022 to fiscal year 2024.⁷ As a result, many cocoa and sugar supply chains broke down and confectionery prices rose. Prices for U.S. products made from cacao increased 143.9 percent from December 2019 to November 2024, while imported cocoa products increased 107.4 percent during that time.⁸ Prices for sugar manufacturing increased 43.8 percent during that period, while prices for corn sweeteners rose 26.2 percent.⁹

Worldwide, sugar and cocoa prices rose for a variety of reasons. Chief among them were extreme weather conditions and logistical issues in key sugar- and cocoa-producing countries. The countries that endured extreme weather contributing to a decline in production included Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, India, Thailand, and Mexico, while those with logistical issues included Brazil and Côte d'Ivoire.¹⁰ These impacts on supply were further complicated by importing countries’ proposed restrictions on cocoa imports that were not produced under environmentally sustainable conditions. With input costs rising and strong demand following the COVID-19 pandemic, candy producers subsequently passed on their cost increases to consumers through higher prices and smaller package sizes.¹¹ This article focuses on the sources of price increases for important candy ingredients and for the candy itself.

Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

In the 5 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the PPI for confectionery materials was relatively flat. However, the index started rising dramatically in 2022.

In the beginning of the pandemic, candy and chocolate manufacturers, like many other businesses, were uncertain about the future.¹² They held off on signing new contracts for inputs (typically done up to a year in advance for cocoa) and stockpiled supplies from existing contracts. As demand from manufacturers declined, cocoa beans began piling up at ports and warehouses in West Africa (where more than 60 percent of cocoa is grown).¹³ Ultimately, the pandemic did not heavily impact domestic candy dollar sales (quantity sold multiplied by the price), which fell only 0.2 percent from 2019 to 2020.¹⁴ Consumers changed their purchasing patterns, opting for more online sales, among other changes.¹⁵ In 2020, dollar sales for chocolate candy grew 4.2 percent and dollar sales for nonchocolate candy grew 2.9 percent. However, dollar sales for the gum and mint category shrank by 22.7 percent over the same period.¹⁶ Meanwhile, unit sales (quantity of individual items sold) fell across all three categories in 2020.¹⁷

In 2021, total confectionery dollar sales grew marginally to $36.9 billion, with increases across all product types. Although chocolate and nonchocolate unit sales increased in 2021, gum and mint unit sales continued to decrease, falling 1.6 percent.¹⁸ In 2022, total confectionery dollar sales reached $42.6 billion; however, unit sales for chocolate dropped 4.2 percent from the previous year.¹⁹ In 2023, the story was similar, with total confectionery dollar sales reaching $48.8 billion, but unit sales for chocolate and nonchocolate candy dropped 5.4 and 1.8 percent, respectively, from the previous year.²⁰

Cocoa: production collapse

Cocoa sourcing systems are incredibly intricate, so the following is a greatly simplified and generalized description.²¹ Some cocoa-growing countries have highly regulated markets.²² In these, the sourcing system contains a myriad of farmers, regulators, traders, other intermediaries, grinders/processors, and exporters. Countries that regulate their cocoa market have differing systems to set farmgate price ranges (the price received by farmers, which does not include transportation and additional fees) and income shares for the various actors in the supply chains. However, these prices and shares are often based on projections for the following season, and negotiations among key industry actors largely occur prior to the season. Buyers, mostly international grinder-traders, usually purchase cocoa contracts up to 12 months in advance of the harvest.²³

Typically, dealers travel to farmers to purchase their beans. The dealers then sell the beans to local processing plants or global grinder-traders. When there are supply shortages, this sales and distribution system can break down. With high prices on the international market, dealers may offer farmers higher prices for their beans than the government-set farmgate price. Then, the dealers sell the beans outside a regulated market instead of delivering the commodity as previously agreed.²⁴ Transporting product from regulated countries to unregulated countries, in an effort to obtain higher prices, is common.²⁵

This started in 2023, with cocoa buyers became increasingly worried about securing beans due to continued lower production coming out of West Africa.²⁶ While there was a minor recovery in 2022–23, production declined again in 2023–24, pushing world prices to a record high in 2024.²⁷ (See chart 2.) Global production dropped more than 13 percent in the 2023–24 season compared with the 2022–23 season, falling from approximately 5.044 million metric tons to 4.365 million metric tons.²⁸ At the same time, global cocoa demand was estimated to decrease only 5 percent, dropping from 5.058 million metric tons to 4.810 million metric tons.²⁹

These lower supplies led to instances of individuals seeking higher prices in countries without regulated cocoa markets. In the 2023–24 season, regulators in Ghana noted a tripling of such loses, accounting for more than a third of its seasonal output.³⁰

The decrease in global production stemmed primarily from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers. Together, they generally account for 50 to 60 percent of total global production.³¹ Both countries have experienced poorer weather conditions since 2021. In 2022, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana had hotter and drier weather, reducing soil moisture and the size of beans.³² In 2023, Côte d’Ivoire received the highest total rainfall in its cocoa-growing regions in the previous 20 years. The excessive rain led to cacao swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, killing cocoa trees and destroying beans.³³ The torrential rain also delayed deliveries to ports.³⁴ Subject to similar problems, Ghana’s 2023–24 crop yield reached a 23-year low.³⁵

Consequently, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana were unable to fulfill all the contracts they sold in advance of the 2023–24 season. The two countries rolled over some of these contracts into the following season, promising future fulfillment.³⁶ Ghana delayed up to 350,000 tons of beans of the approximately 785,000 tons it sold in advance.³⁷ Because prices had increased since the contracts were initially signed, there was some uncertainty about what buyers would actually pay for beans from their rolled-over contracts.³⁸ Further, although the 2024–25 season was expected to be an improvement over the previous season, some analysts were unsure whether it would be enough to cover both the rolled-over contracts and those sold for the 2024–25 season.³⁹

Cocoa financial derivatives and the legal landscape

Further, speculation in the cocoa futures market also pushed prices higher.⁴⁰ Hedge funds and other traders joined the cocoa market in droves starting at the end of 2023. By early 2024, traders purchased a record $8.7 billion worth of cocoa futures contracts between the London and New York markets.⁴¹ Although likely not the major cause of the rise in prices, these hedge funds contributed to the increase, with prices more than doubling over the previous year by 2024.⁴² With chocolate companies also attempting to secure supplies, the cocoa futures market reached prices not seen in over 40 years, as the futures markets were traditionally only used to hedge risk.⁴³ From October 2022 onward, prices climbed sharply. They peaked initially in April 2024 at just over $11,000 per metric ton. At that time, the Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S. (New York) temporarily hiked its margin requirements (the minimum amount of money required up front to open a position). These new margin requirements caused the cocoa futures market to temporarily drop from its initial peak.⁴⁴ Later in the year though, prices resumed their ascent, climbing another 10 percent, reaching a record $12,565 per metric ton in December 2024.⁴⁵ By comparison, from 2000 to the third quarter of 2022, cocoa future prices stayed between $1,000 and $3,500 per metric ton.⁴⁶

This overall price increase did not, however, initially directly translate into higher prices for farmers, as contracts were signed 8 to 12 months prior to the 2023–24 season when cocoa futures were less than half of what they were in November 2023.⁴⁷ Only in April 2024 when cocoa futures initially peaked did Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana decide, separately from one another, to increase their farmgate prices approximately 50 percent for the upcoming 2024–25 season.⁴⁸ Each country then increased its farmgate price several more times before and after the start of the 2024-25 season.⁴⁹ The farmgate price increases meant that farmers were paid more per bean, but the issue of cocoa farmer incomes spans decades.

In the 1990s and 2000s, concerns about sufficient wages for farmers, labor practices, and unsustainable practices started growing in the market for chocolate and other cocoa products. To alleviate these worries, a number of programs and organizations arose, including the first fair trade certification of cocoa in 1994 and the founding of the World Cocoa Foundation in 2000.⁵⁰ Many chocolate companies attempted to publicly address these concerns.⁵¹ Some stated their belief that this would appeal to consumer concerns and would encourage purchases, in addition to improving product quality and addressing supply chain concerns.⁵² In line with some of the stated goals of the industry, officials in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana introduced setting state-guaranteed prices and limits on stockpiling and allocations. Further, starting in the 2020–21 cocoa season, they implemented Living Income Differential (LID) premiums in a further attempt to help growers obtain sufficient income.⁵³ The LID premiums were met with controversy from some industry actors.⁵⁴

Complicating the situation further was the additional regulation on the horizon with the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which was initially set to go into effect at the end of 2024 but was subsequently delayed until the end of 2025 and again until the end of 2026.⁵⁵ The EUDR will require several industries, including cocoa, to perform their due diligence when sourcing their commodities to promote traceability and transparency.⁵⁶ With the EU being one of the largest cocoa buyers, this has the potential to push prices up even further in the future.

Sugar: the United States sugar program and El Niño in Mexico and beyond

Sugar in the United States is relatively expensive compared to the rest of the world, largely because of the United States sugar program that restricts sugar imports.⁵⁷ Mexico has generally provided nearly half of United States sugar imports, with a policy beginning in 2008 that made Mexican sugar duty-free and quota-free. However, in 2014, the two countries suspended the quota- and duty-free policies and agreed to implement minimum price and quantity restrictions on imports of Mexican sugar, which led to an increase in sugar prices. (See chart 3.) Non-Mexican sugar imports have remained subject to World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments and free trade agreements, with the United States allocating WTO tariff-rate quotas.⁵⁸

Many of the major sugarcane-producing states in central and southern Mexico experienced droughts in recent years, including a major drought in marketing year (MY) 2019–20 and a less severe drought in MY 2022–23.⁵⁹ The 2023–24 season’s exceptional dryness reduced Mexican sugar production to its lowest volume in 24 years and its lowest export volume to the United States in 17 years.⁶⁰ This allowed high-tier tariff sugar imports to overtake Mexican imports for the first time.⁶¹ Forecasts for MY 2023–24 U.S. production were also lower due to decreased beet sugar production, despite a slight increase in cane sugar production.⁶² Initial February 2024 forecasts of total United States exports for the 2023–24 season were over twice as large as the previous year’s volume (and revised forecast estimates in October 2024 were almost three times larger than the previous year), with 88 percent projected to go to Mexico, primarily composed of beet sugar.⁶³ Because Mexico was exporting less sugar to the United States, and because the United States was exporting more sugar to Mexico, more of the United States demand for sugar was supplied via high-tier tariff imports from other countries. (See chart 4.)

In addition, global sugar prices increased as El Niño caused unusually dry weather in India and Thailand (the second and third largest sugar exporters globally), which resulted in reduced production in those countries in MY 2023–24.⁶⁴ Port bottlenecks, fire, and competition from other crops for shipping services also affected exports from Brazil (the largest global sugar exporter).⁶⁵ Further complicating the issue was competing uses for sugar, as 51 percent of Brazil’s 2023 sugarcane crop was used for their domestic production of ethanol.⁶⁶

For 2024–25, Mexico’s production and exports to the United States improved slightly from the previous season, but exports to the United States were still only about half of their 2022–23 levels. U.S. domestic production, however, improved from 2023–24, with growth in beet sugar production outweighing a drop in cane sugar production, leading to lower demand for expensive, high-tier tariff sugar imports.⁶⁷

Changing consumer behavior

“Shrinkflation” is a buzzword that has been a trending topic in the news. Shrinkflation is when a product’s size decreases but the price per quantity increases. Although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) accounts for changes in product sizes, a notable finding for the CPI for the 2015–21 period was the relatively high number of downsized items reported in 2015–16 compared with the lower number of downsized items in 2021 (just prior to shrinkflation becoming more prevalent in the news).⁶⁸ (See chart 5.)

Further, BLS calculated research price indexes for the January 2015–December 2019 period that, while adjusting for changes in product quality, do not account for changes in item size. BLS then compared the research indexes to the CPI, which does adjust for changes in both quality and item size. The research found that there were only small differences between the two indexes for higher level comparisons, concluding that the downsizing of items had very little impact on overall inflation for this period. However, among specific item categories, the candy and chewing gum index had one of the largest increases attributable to downsizing, at 1.35 percent for the 2015–19 period. BLS later updated this research to include data from January 2019 through October 2023, which showed downsizing led to a 2.1-percent increase for candy and chewing gum prices during this period.⁶⁹

Higher prices and perceived shrinkflation affect consumer behavior. Data from the Consumer Expenditure (CE) Surveys program can give some indication of this. How much consumers buy often depends on the price of the product. Consumers increased their expenditures on sugar and other sweets from 2016 through 2024, culminating in $31.1 billion of total purchases in 2024.⁷⁰ (See chart 6.) However, the number of nonseasonal units of chocolate sold started dropping in mid-2022.⁷¹ Further, cocoa demand dropped nearly 5 percent in the 2023–24 season from the previous season.⁷² So, expenditure trends for confectionery products may be changing.

Conclusion

Although some food inflation has moderated since the heightened rates of 2022, this is not the case for sweet treats. El Niño and other weather phenomena have impacted cocoa and sugar supplies around the globe. Further complications include various government policies, such as the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation, the Living Income Differential of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and the United States sugar program. And with customers changing their consumption patterns in response to higher prices, companies may no longer be able to pass on increased costs to buyers. How the industry evolves remains to be seen as it deals with both these supply and demand complications.