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Employment up 118,000 to 328,000 in April (90 percent certainty)

May 11, 2015

The estimated gain in nonfarm employment in April 2015 was 223,000. As with all statistics collected from a sample instead of a full count of the population, there is a margin of error around this estimate. We call this error range a confidence interval. The confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment is about plus or minus 105,000. There is a 90-percent chance the true April change was somewhere between +118,000 and +328,000 (which is 223,000 +/− 105,000).

Chart Image
Chart Data

Nonfarm payroll employment over-the-month change and approximate confidence interval, January 2010–April 2015
Month	Over-the-month change in employment	Confidence interval	Lower bound of confidence interval	Upper bound of confidence interval
Jan 2010	32,000	100,000	-68,000	132,000
Feb 2010	-68,000	100,000	-168,000	32,000
Mar 2010	161,000	100,000	61,000	261,000
Apr 2010	247,000	100,000	147,000	347,000
May 2010	518,000	100,000	418,000	618,000
Jun 2010	-130,000	100,000	-230,000	-30,000
Jul 2010	-64,000	100,000	-164,000	36,000
Aug 2010	-39,000	100,000	-139,000	61,000
Sep 2010	-49,000	100,000	-149,000	51,000
Oct 2010	248,000	100,000	148,000	348,000
Nov 2010	121,000	100,000	21,000	221,000
Dec 2010	89,000	100,000	-11,000	189,000
Jan 2011	75,000	100,000	-25,000	175,000
Feb 2011	167,000	100,000	67,000	267,000
Mar 2011	206,000	100,000	106,000	306,000
Apr 2011	321,000	100,000	221,000	421,000
May 2011	103,000	100,000	3,000	203,000
Jun 2011	185,000	100,000	85,000	285,000
Jul 2011	117,000	100,000	17,000	217,000
Aug 2011	128,000	100,000	28,000	228,000
Sep 2011	223,000	100,000	123,000	323,000
Oct 2011	183,000	100,000	83,000	283,000
Nov 2011	146,000	100,000	46,000	246,000
Dec 2011	226,000	100,000	126,000	326,000
Jan 2012	380,000	100,000	280,000	480,000
Feb 2012	247,000	100,000	147,000	347,000
Mar 2012	216,000	100,000	116,000	316,000
Apr 2012	87,000	100,000	-13,000	187,000
May 2012	113,000	100,000	13,000	213,000
Jun 2012	35,000	100,000	-65,000	135,000
Jul 2012	177,000	100,000	77,000	277,000
Aug 2012	188,000	100,000	88,000	288,000
Sep 2012	144,000	100,000	44,000	244,000
Oct 2012	213,000	100,000	113,000	313,000
Nov 2012	164,000	100,000	64,000	264,000
Dec 2012	293,000	100,000	193,000	393,000
Jan 2013	205,000	90,000	115,000	295,000
Feb 2013	314,000	90,000	224,000	404,000
Mar 2013	115,000	90,000	25,000	205,000
Apr 2013	187,000	90,000	97,000	277,000
May 2013	219,000	90,000	129,000	309,000
Jun 2013	127,000	90,000	37,000	217,000
Jul 2013	164,000	90,000	74,000	254,000
Aug 2013	256,000	90,000	166,000	346,000
Sep 2013	150,000	90,000	60,000	240,000
Oct 2013	225,000	90,000	135,000	315,000
Nov 2013	317,000	90,000	227,000	407,000
Dec 2013	109,000	90,000	19,000	199,000
Jan 2014	166,000	90,000	76,000	256,000
Feb 2014	188,000	90,000	98,000	278,000
Mar 2014	225,000	90,000	135,000	315,000
Apr 2014	330,000	90,000	240,000	420,000
May 2014	236,000	90,000	146,000	326,000
Jun 2014	286,000	90,000	196,000	376,000
Jul 2014	249,000	90,000	159,000	339,000
Aug 2014	213,000	90,000	123,000	303,000
Sep 2014	250,000	90,000	160,000	340,000
Oct 2014	221,000	90,000	131,000	311,000
Nov 2014	423,000	90,000	333,000	513,000
Dec 2014	329,000	90,000	239,000	419,000
Jan 2015	201,000	105,000	96,000	306,000
Feb 2015	266,000	105,000	161,000	371,000
Mar 2015^(p)	85,000	105,000	-20,000	190,000
Apr 2015^(p)	223,000	105,000	118,000	328,000
Footnotes: ^(p) preliminary.

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All values within the 90-percent confidence interval for April were greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment did, in fact, rise in April.

The entire confidence interval has been above zero for most months since 2010. However, the employment change in March 2015, as revised, was 85,000. The confidence interval ranged from −20,000 to +190,000. Because this range includes values less than zero, we cannot say with certainty that nonfarm employment rose in March.

These data are from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and are seasonally adjusted. Data for the most recent 2 months are preliminary. To learn more, see "The Employment Situation — April 2015" (HTML) (PDF). More charts featuring CES employment data are in Current Employment Statistics Highlights: April 2015 (PDF). CES estimates are based on data collected from a sample of the nation's employers. Estimates from a sample of employers may differ from a complete count of all employers. This difference is called sampling error. Statistical theory has shown that there is a roughly 90-percent chance, or level of confidence, that sampling error will cause an estimate to differ by no more than 1.6 standard errors from the actual value. The approximate confidence level of CES employment estimates has been between 90,000 and 105,000 in recent years. The confidence interval does not mean the estimates are off by these amounts; rather, there is about a 90-percent chance the actual over-the-month change lies within the interval.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Employment up 118,000 to 328,000 in April (90 percent certainty) at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/employment-up-118000-to-328000-in-april-90-percent-certainty.htm (visited October 03, 2024).

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