Department of Labor Logo United States Department of Labor
Dot gov

The .gov means it's official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Employment up 118,000 to 328,000 in April (90 percent certainty)

May 11, 2015

The estimated gain in nonfarm employment in April 2015 was 223,000. As with all statistics collected from a sample instead of a full count of the population, there is a margin of error around this estimate. We call this error range a confidence interval. The confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment is about plus or minus 105,000. There is a 90-percent chance the true April change was somewhere between +118,000 and +328,000 (which is 223,000 +/− 105,000).

Nonfarm payroll employment over-the-month change and approximate confidence interval, January 2010–April 2015
Month Over-the-month change in employment Confidence interval Lower bound of confidence interval Upper bound of confidence interval

Jan 2010

32,000 100,000 -68,000 132,000

Feb 2010

-68,000 100,000 -168,000 32,000

Mar 2010

161,000 100,000 61,000 261,000

Apr 2010

247,000 100,000 147,000 347,000

May 2010

518,000 100,000 418,000 618,000

Jun 2010

-130,000 100,000 -230,000 -30,000

Jul 2010

-64,000 100,000 -164,000 36,000

Aug 2010

-39,000 100,000 -139,000 61,000

Sep 2010

-49,000 100,000 -149,000 51,000

Oct 2010

248,000 100,000 148,000 348,000

Nov 2010

121,000 100,000 21,000 221,000

Dec 2010

89,000 100,000 -11,000 189,000

Jan 2011

75,000 100,000 -25,000 175,000

Feb 2011

167,000 100,000 67,000 267,000

Mar 2011

206,000 100,000 106,000 306,000

Apr 2011

321,000 100,000 221,000 421,000

May 2011

103,000 100,000 3,000 203,000

Jun 2011

185,000 100,000 85,000 285,000

Jul 2011

117,000 100,000 17,000 217,000

Aug 2011

128,000 100,000 28,000 228,000

Sep 2011

223,000 100,000 123,000 323,000

Oct 2011

183,000 100,000 83,000 283,000

Nov 2011

146,000 100,000 46,000 246,000

Dec 2011

226,000 100,000 126,000 326,000

Jan 2012

380,000 100,000 280,000 480,000

Feb 2012

247,000 100,000 147,000 347,000

Mar 2012

216,000 100,000 116,000 316,000

Apr 2012

87,000 100,000 -13,000 187,000

May 2012

113,000 100,000 13,000 213,000

Jun 2012

35,000 100,000 -65,000 135,000

Jul 2012

177,000 100,000 77,000 277,000

Aug 2012

188,000 100,000 88,000 288,000

Sep 2012

144,000 100,000 44,000 244,000

Oct 2012

213,000 100,000 113,000 313,000

Nov 2012

164,000 100,000 64,000 264,000

Dec 2012

293,000 100,000 193,000 393,000

Jan 2013

205,000 90,000 115,000 295,000

Feb 2013

314,000 90,000 224,000 404,000

Mar 2013

115,000 90,000 25,000 205,000

Apr 2013

187,000 90,000 97,000 277,000

May 2013

219,000 90,000 129,000 309,000

Jun 2013

127,000 90,000 37,000 217,000

Jul 2013

164,000 90,000 74,000 254,000

Aug 2013

256,000 90,000 166,000 346,000

Sep 2013

150,000 90,000 60,000 240,000

Oct 2013

225,000 90,000 135,000 315,000

Nov 2013

317,000 90,000 227,000 407,000

Dec 2013

109,000 90,000 19,000 199,000

Jan 2014

166,000 90,000 76,000 256,000

Feb 2014

188,000 90,000 98,000 278,000

Mar 2014

225,000 90,000 135,000 315,000

Apr 2014

330,000 90,000 240,000 420,000

May 2014

236,000 90,000 146,000 326,000

Jun 2014

286,000 90,000 196,000 376,000

Jul 2014

249,000 90,000 159,000 339,000

Aug 2014

213,000 90,000 123,000 303,000

Sep 2014

250,000 90,000 160,000 340,000

Oct 2014

221,000 90,000 131,000 311,000

Nov 2014

423,000 90,000 333,000 513,000

Dec 2014

329,000 90,000 239,000 419,000

Jan 2015

201,000 105,000 96,000 306,000

Feb 2015

266,000 105,000 161,000 371,000

Mar 2015(p)

85,000 105,000 -20,000 190,000

Apr 2015(p)

223,000 105,000 118,000 328,000
Footnotes:

(p) preliminary.

All values within the 90-percent confidence interval for April were greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment did, in fact, rise in April.

The entire confidence interval has been above zero for most months since 2010. However, the employment change in March 2015, as revised, was 85,000. The confidence interval ranged from −20,000 to +190,000. Because this range includes values less than zero, we cannot say with certainty that nonfarm employment rose in March.

These data are from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and are seasonally adjusted. Data for the most recent 2 months are preliminary. To learn more, see "The Employment Situation — April 2015" (HTML) (PDF). More charts featuring CES employment data are in Current Employment Statistics Highlights: April 2015 (PDF). CES estimates are based on data collected from a sample of the nation's employers. Estimates from a sample of employers may differ from a complete count of all employers. This difference is called sampling error. Statistical theory has shown that there is a roughly 90-percent chance, or level of confidence, that sampling error will cause an estimate to differ by no more than 1.6 standard errors from the actual value. The approximate confidence level of CES employment estimates has been between 90,000 and 105,000 in recent years. The confidence interval does not mean the estimates are off by these amounts; rather, there is about a 90-percent chance the actual over-the-month change lies within the interval.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Employment up 118,000 to 328,000 in April (90 percent certainty) at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/employment-up-118000-to-328000-in-april-90-percent-certainty.htm (visited December 08, 2021).

OF INTEREST
spotlight

Recent editions of Spotlight on Statistics

triangle