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Employment to grow 7.7 percent from 2020 to 2030; 1.7 percent excluding COVID-19 recovery

September 23, 2021

Total U.S. employment is projected to grow from 153.5 million to 165.4 million from 2020 to 2030, an increase of 11.9 million jobs, or 7.7 percent. Excluding a projected increase of 9.3 million jobs attributed to the COVID–19 recovery from low base-year employment for 2020 and its associated recession, employment is projected to increase by 1.7 percent.

Projected percent change in employment by major occupational group, 2020–2030, including adjustments for pandemic recovery
Major occupation group Percent change in employment Percent change in employment, excluding pandemic recovery

Healthcare support

23.1% 20.5%

Personal care and service

21.7 0.0

Food preparation and serving related

19.6 0.5

Computer and mathematical

14.1 14.1

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

13.1 3.3

Community and social service

12.4 12.4

Healthcare practitioners and technical

10.8 9.5

Educational instruction and library

10.1 3.4

Management

9.3 0.0

Legal

8.8 8.3

Transportation and material moving

8.8 5.2

Protective service

8.4 2.6

Business and financial operations

8.0 8.0

Life, physical, and social science

7.9 6.8

Total, all occupations

7.7 1.7

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

7.5 0.0

Installation, maintenance, and repair

6.7 1.9

Construction and extraction

5.7 0.3

Architecture and engineering

5.6 0.8

Farming, fishing, and forestry

2.5 0.0

Production

-0.4 -0.4

Sales and related

-1.4 -1.4

Office and administrative support

-2.8 -2.8

Healthcare support occupations are projected for the fastest employment growth among all occupational groups. Personal care and service occupations and food preparation and serving related occupations are also projected for rapid employment growth, mainly due to recovery growth following low 2020 base-year employment.

Computer and mathematical occupations are expected to see fast employment growth as strong demand is expected for IT security and software development, in part due to increased telework spurred by COVID-19. Demand for new products associated with the Internet of Things (IoT), and for analyzing large datasets is also expected to contribute to fast employment growth for these occupations, which include statisticians, information security analysts, and data scientists.

Several of the fastest growing healthcare occupations, including nurse practitioners, physical therapist assistants, and physician assistants, are projected to see strong demand as team-based healthcare models are increasingly used to deliver healthcare services.

Fastest growing and declining occupations, projected 2020 to 2030
Occupation Percent change in employment

Wind turbine service technicians

68.2%

Nurse practitioners

52.2

Solar photovoltaic installers

52.1

Statisticians

35.4

Physical therapist assistants

35.4

Information security analysts

33.3

Home health and personal care aides

32.6

Medical and health services managers

32.5

Data scientists and mathematical science occupations, all other

31.4

Physician assistants

31.0

Epidemiologists

29.6

Logisticians

29.5

Speech-language pathologists

28.7

Animal trainers

28.5

Computer numerically controlled tool programmers

27.4

Telemarketers

-18.3

Manufactured building and mobile home installers

-18.4

Executive secretaries and executive administrative assistants

-18.7

Floral designers

-20.1

Legal secretaries and administrative assistants

-21.0

Shoe machine operators and tenders

-21.6

Data entry keyers

-22.5

Switchboard operators, including answering service

-22.7

Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers

-24.1

Watch and clock repairers

-24.9

Telephone operators

-25.4

Cutters and trimmers, hand

-29.7

Nuclear power reactor operators

-32.9

Parking enforcement workers

-35.0

Word processors and typists

-36.0

Note: Fastest growing occupations exclude occupations with above average cyclical recovery.

Technological changes facilitating increased automation are expected to result in declining employment for office and administrative support occupations, such as word processors and typists; legal secretaries and administrative assistants; and executive secretaries and executive administrative assistants.

These data are from the BLS Employment Projections program. Pandemic recovery represents the reversal of declines in employment between 2019 and 2020, for occupational groups that experienced declines during that period and that are projected to grow between 2020 and 2030. Additional information about these and many other occupations may be found in the Occupational Outlook Handbook or "Employment Projections — 2020–2030."

SUGGESTED CITATION

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Employment to grow 7.7 percent from 2020 to 2030; 1.7 percent excluding COVID-19 recovery at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/employment-to-grow-7-7-percent-from-2020-to-2030-1-7-percent-excluding-covid-19-recovery.htm (visited October 16, 2021).

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