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After the COVID-19 pandemic began, manufacturing output fell at a 43-percent annual rate and hours worked fell at a 38-percent rate in the second quarter of 2020. These were the largest declines since World War II. Motor vehicle production virtually ceased, and some of the plants that stayed open even pitched in to produce ventilators. Other major manufacturing industries hit hard include primary metals, fabricated metal products, machinery, food and beverage and tobacco products, and chemicals. No major industry was immune to the second quarter declines.
Quarter | Motor vehicles and parts | Fabricated metals | Machinery | Computer and electronic products | Food, beverage, and tobacco | Chemical |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q4 2019 |
100.000 | 100.000 | 100.000 | 100.000 | 100.000 | 100.000 |
Q1 2020 |
95.685 | 98.759 | 98.651 | 101.426 | 100.401 | 100.340 |
Q2 2020 |
50.909 | 88.513 | 82.715 | 96.748 | 95.874 | 95.359 |
Q3 2020 |
106.697 | 90.778 | 91.711 | 99.450 | 99.762 | 98.058 |
Q4 2020 |
103.929 | 92.217 | 93.317 | 99.013 | 100.652 | 99.919 |
Q1 2021 |
99.752 | 93.284 | 97.322 | 100.175 | 101.182 | 97.275 |
Q2 2021 |
94.945 | 94.270 | 98.902 | 104.468 | 100.186 | 104.265 |
Q3 2021 |
95.004 | 95.333 | 101.791 | 107.053 | 99.553 | 104.419 |
Q4 2021 |
99.800 | 97.636 | 102.902 | 107.967 | 100.603 | 105.851 |
Q1 2022 |
100.424 | 98.914 | 106.734 | 107.321 | 102.206 | 105.610 |
Q2 2022 |
106.137 | 99.438 | 105.518 | 107.332 | 102.202 | 106.661 |
The motor vehicle industry was the driving force in the immediate recovery, as manufacturing output recovered within 5 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Motor vehicle and parts production declined over the next three quarters—due in part to supply-chain disruptions. At the same time, many other industries continued to recover, led by computer and electronic products, chemicals, and machinery, resulting in overall manufacturing output growth.
Manufacturing output surged back in the third quarter of 2020. The annualized gains in manufacturing output (53 percent) and hours worked (30 percent) in the third quarter of 2020 were the largest ever recorded. Output recovered faster than hours worked, resulting in a historically high increase in manufacturing productivity of 18 percent. Manufacturing productivity increased more than 9 percent in the second quarter of 2021, the quarter with the largest decline in hours worked since the second quarter of 2020.
Quarter | Output | Hours worked | Productivitiy |
---|---|---|---|
Q4 2019 |
100.000 | 100.000 | 100.000 |
Q1 2020 |
98.615 | 98.122 | 100.504 |
Q2 2020 |
85.627 | 87.056 | 98.359 |
Q3 2020 |
95.235 | 92.934 | 102.477 |
Q4 2020 |
97.154 | 94.700 | 102.592 |
Q1 2021 |
97.784 | 95.676 | 102.203 |
Q2 2021 |
99.152 | 94.870 | 104.513 |
Q3 2021 |
100.076 | 96.352 | 103.866 |
Q4 2021 |
101.512 | 97.779 | 103.819 |
Q1 2022 |
102.451 | 98.982 | 103.506 |
Q2 2022 |
103.465 | 98.812 | 104.709 |
Manufacturing output has continued to grow steadily through the second quarter of 2022 and was 3.5 percent above the level in the fourth quarter of 2019, the last quarter not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Hours worked in manufacturing increased in all but two quarters since the third quarter of 2020 and have recovered to within 1.2 percent of the level in the fourth quarter of 2019. Labor productivity in manufacturing was 4.7 percent higher in the second quarter of 2022 than in the fourth quarter of 2019.
These data are from the Productivity program and are subject to revision. Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked for all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, U.S. manufacturing output, hours worked, and productivity recover from COVID-19 at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/u-s-manufacturing-output-hours-worked-and-productivity-recover-from-covid-19.htm (visited December 11, 2024).