This page addresses the effects of the 2025 federal government shutdown on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Federal government agencies were shut down or operating at reduced staffing levels during a lapse in appropriations from October 1, 2025, through November 12, 2025. Most CPI operations, including data collection, were suspended during that time period. Some staff were recalled between October 9, 2025 and October 24, 2025 to produce the September 2025 CPI which was released on October 24, 2025.
We will update this page as more information becomes available.
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1. Were September 2025 data affected?
No. Collection of CPI data for September 2025 had been completed in accordance with our normal schedule prior to the federal government shutdown. Publication of September data was delayed by more than a week (from October 15 to October 24) because of the shutdown. (See the September 2025 CPI news release.)
2. Were October 2025 data affected?
Yes. BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data. Survey data for commodities and services were carried forward to October 2025 from September 2025. November 2025 indexes were calculated by comparing the collected November 2025 prices with the carried-forward October 2025 prices. Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October. November 2025 indexes were calculated using collected November rent data, following regular procedures.
For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October. Where possible, BLS published October 2025 values for these series with the release of November 2025 data.
BLS did not issue an October 2025 CPI news release.
3. How will the missing October 2025 data be represented in BLS products?
A dash indicates missing October 2025 data in CPI tables.
For web page displays, missing data for October 2025 will appear as -(X) or - (X), where the dash indicates missing data and the text of footnote X reads “Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations.” In Excel displays, the missing data are represented as dashes and the tables show the footnote: “Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations.”
In the BLS Public Data API, users will see a dash to represent the missing data value. Both net changes and percent will not be visible. Footnote text “Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations” will be included.
For additional information on handling missing data see the approximating missing data factsheet.
4. What was the impact on November data collection?
Collection began on Friday, November 14. By authorizing additional collection hours from November 14 to November 30, BLS attempted to collect data from all establishments and respondents scheduled for November collection.
5. How were November indexes calculated?
November 2025 indexes were calculated in accordance with normal procedures. For categories sourced from the Commodities and Services Pricing Survey, 1-month price change was estimated by comparing November 2025 prices with imputed October 2025 prices. These 1-month estimates were then used to derive the index level for November 2025 based off the October 2025 index level.
For rent and owners’ equivalent rent, 1-month price change was estimated using the sixth root of 6-month price change (May 2025 to November 2025), for sample collected in November 2025. This 1-month estimate was then used to derive the index level for November 2025 based off the October 2025 index level.
6. Why did BLS choose carry-forward imputation?
BLS used the carry-forward method to impute data. BLS viewed retroactively collecting data for October as both costly and potentially inaccurate, especially since the CPI surveys are not based on respondent recall. For rents in particular, BLS collects data for an entirely different sample each month. BLS does not have data collection resources to collect 2 months of data in 2 weeks. Extending data collection for the October reference month through the end of November would have further delayed processing and release of November indexes and releases for subsequent months. In keeping with its mission, BLS publishes estimates as quickly as possible after the reference month. By using known and documented statistical methods, BLS was able to release November indexes within 10 days of the originally planned release date and is on schedule to release December data on the original timeline of January 13, 2026.
For October 2025, BLS used the existing, documented imputation algorithm in calculating the CPI. BLS did not deviate from existing, adopted methodology as described in the BLS Handbook of Methods for the CPI. Imputation is a hierarchical process for both uncollected prices in the Commodities and Services Pricing Survey and uncollected rents in the Housing Survey.
The imputation process first attempts to estimate a missing price or rent from the price change movements of ‘like-kind’ items observed in the current month. This is key, as the CPI measurement objective is to observe (or impute) prices as transacted strictly in the current month, not to look at past trends or to a forecast of future behavior. Only when there are no ‘like-kind’ items in the imputation source pool does the algorithm resolve to a carry-forward impute; that is, to proxy the unobserved price or rent as its last known collected price or rent. In October 2025, since all survey data went uncollected, the ‘like-kind’ imputation methods could not execute, so imputation resolved to the carry-forward method for all survey samples, including rent.
There are several reasons for using carry-forward rather than an alternative method such as a trend-adjusted naïve forecast, an interpolation method, or any other time-series or cross-sectional econometric model. First, BLS did not want to intervene and superimpose last minute, unvetted judgment into the process, as this could have been perceived as manipulating the data unscientifically. Second, BLS information technology was built and rigorously tested for the hierarchical imputation algorithm. Logistically, even if there were consensus agreement on an alternative imputation-of-last-resort method, BLS could not have written requirements, modified the systems, tested, and certified the changes in a timely fashion; that would have further delayed the release of the November 2025 CPI and subsequent releases considerably. Third, vetting a proposed alternative imputation method and gaining endorsement would take considerable time. A methodological change of that magnitude would require publication in the Federal Register and a public comment period prior to adoption.
Carry-forward imputation has specific effects depending on market conditions:
- In periods of general price increases, the carry-forward method may result in an underestimation.
- In periods of general price decreases, it may result in an overestimation.
- When most prices are not changing and some are rising and some are falling, the method reflects the majority behavior for uncollected items.
7. How will BLS publish price changes in December 2025 for cities that are subject to bi-monthly pricing, given the missing October 2025 data?
For December 2025, BLS will not publish 2-month percent changes for cities on a bi-monthly, even-month publication schedule because the October 2025 index levels were not published. BLS carried forward all survey prices collected on a bi-monthly, even-month schedule from August 2025 to October 2025. However, 2-month percent change for a few indexes entirely composed of nonsurvey data will be published.
8. BLS calculates rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) using 6-month panel collection. How will the missing October 2025 data impact the April 2026 rent and OER indexes?
Effects of the carry-forward imputation method utilized in October 2025 will resolve in April 2026 when that housing panel is used again. The 1-month rent change estimated for April 2026 will be atypical: it will essentially be based on the 1/6th root of 12-month change, instead of the 1/6th root of a 6-month change.
9. What statistical weighting changes were made in November 2025?
No changes were made to the weighting methodology used in the construction of the CPI in November 2025. The weights will be updated with the release of the January 2026 CPI on February 11, 2026 as planned.
Last Modified Date: December 31, 2025
United States Department of Labor