Consumer Price Index Summary

 Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until                                        	
 8:30 a.m. (EST) February 15, 2017              USDL-17-0216

 Technical information: (202) 691-7000    cpi_info@bls.gov    www.bls.gov/cpi
 Media Contact:         (202) 691-5902    PressOffice@bls.gov

 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JANUARY 2017

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent 
 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 
 reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent 
 before seasonal adjustment.
 
 The January increase was the largest seasonally adjusted all items increase 
 since February 2013. A sharp rise in the gasoline index accounted for nearly 
 half the increase, and advances in the indexes for shelter, apparel, and new 
 vehicles also were major contributors.  

 The energy index increased 4.0 percent in January as the gasoline index 
 advanced 7.8 percent and the index for natural gas also increased. The food 
 index, which had been unchanged for 6 consecutive months, increased 0.1 percent.
 The food at home index was unchanged, while the index for food away from home 
 rose 0.4 percent. 

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. Most 
 of the major component indexes increased in January, with the indexes for 
 apparel, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and airline fares all rising 
 0.8 percent or more. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent, a smaller increase 
 than in recent months. 

 The all items index rose 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending January, the 
 largest 12-month increase since March 2012. The index for all items less food 
 and energy rose 2.3 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index 
 increased 10.8 percent, its largest 12-month increase since November 2011. 
 In contrast, the food index declined 0.2 percent over the last 12 months.

 Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
 average
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from             
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              July  Aug.  Sep.  Oct.  Nov.  Dec.  Jan.   ended 
                              2016  2016  2016  2016  2016  2016  2017   Jan.  
                                                                         2017  
                                                                               
                                                                               
 All items..................    .0    .2    .3    .3    .2    .3    .6      2.5
  Food......................    .0    .0    .0    .0    .0    .0    .1      -.2
   Food at home.............   -.2   -.2   -.2   -.2   -.1   -.2    .0     -1.9
   Food away from home (1)..    .2    .2    .2    .1    .1    .2    .4      2.4
  Energy....................  -1.1    .0   2.4   2.5   1.0   1.2   4.0     10.8
   Energy commodities.......  -3.1   -.7   4.4   4.8   2.0   2.4   7.6     20.0
    Gasoline (all types)....  -3.3   -.8   4.6   5.1   2.1   2.4   7.8     20.3
    Fuel oil (1)............  -1.3  -2.5   2.4   5.9  -1.2   6.0   3.5     24.8
   Energy services..........    .8    .6    .6    .4    .0    .0    .3      2.9
    Electricity.............    .4    .3    .5    .3    .0    .0    .0      1.0
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service..............   2.5   1.5    .8    .9    .2    .1   1.5     10.1
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy.................    .1    .3    .1    .1    .2    .2    .3      2.3
   Commodities less food and                                                   
      energy commodities....   -.1    .1   -.1    .0   -.2    .0    .4      -.2
    New vehicles............    .2    .0    .0    .2    .0    .1    .9       .9
    Used cars and trucks....   -.7   -.5   -.2   -.1    .2    .2   -.4     -3.7
    Apparel.................    .0    .2   -.5    .2   -.3   -.4   1.4      1.0
    Medical care commodities    .5   1.1    .6    .2   -.4    .5    .3      4.7
   Services less energy                                                        
      services..............    .2    .3    .2    .2    .3    .3    .3      3.1
    Shelter.................    .2    .3    .3    .3    .3    .3    .2      3.5
    Transportation services     .1    .2    .0   -.1    .5    .5    .6      3.2
    Medical care services...    .5    .8    .1    .1    .2    .2    .2      3.6

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.



 Food

 The food index rose 0.1 percent in January, its first increase since April 2016.
 The index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent, its largest increase since 
 September 2015. The food at home index was unchanged in January after declining
 in recent months. The major grocery store food group indexes were mixed, with 
 three increases and three declines. The index for dairy and related products 
 increased 0.8 percent, its largest advance since May 2014. The index for meats,
 poultry, fish, and eggs, which had declined for 16 consecutive months, rose 0.7
 percent in January as the index for eggs rose 14.3 percent. The index for other
 food at home also rose in January, increasing 0.2 percent.

 In contrast, the index for fruits and vegetables declined in January, falling 
 1.7 percent as the index for fresh vegetables decreased 3.0 percent. The index 
 for nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3 percent, and the index for cereals and 
 bakery products declined 0.1 percent.

 The index for food at home declined 1.9 percent over the past year, largely 
 reflecting a 4.9-percent decrease in the fruits and vegetables index. The other
 major grocery store food group indexes also declined over the past year, except
 the index for other food at home, which was unchanged. The index for food away 
 from home rose 2.4 percent over the past year.  
    
 
 Energy

 The energy index rose 4.0 percent in January, its fifth straight increase. 
 The gasoline index continued to rise, increasing 7.8 percent. (Before seasonal 
 adjustment, gasoline prices increased 5.3 percent in January.) The index for 
 natural gas also increased, rising 1.5 percent in January. The index for 
 electricity was unchanged for the third month in a row. 

 The index for energy increased 10.8 percent over the past year, with all of its
 major components rising. The gasoline index rose 20.3 percent, and the index 
 for natural gas increased 10.1 percent. The electricity index rose more modestly,
 increasing 1.0 percent.   


 All items less food and energy

 The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in January. 
 The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.3 percent in 
 both November and December. The rent index rose 0.3 percent, and the index for 
 owners' equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent. The apparel index rose in 
 January, increasing 1.4 percent. The index for new vehicles rose 0.9 percent, 
 its largest increase since November 2009. The index for motor vehicle insurance
 continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent in January, and the index for airline
 fares rose 2.0 percent.

 The medical care index also rose in January, increasing 0.2 percent. The 
 indexes for prescription drugs and for hospital services both increased 0.3 
 percent. The recreation index increased 0.4 percent, the largest advance since 
 January 2012. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 
 percent over the month. The alcoholic beverages index increased 0.2 percent, 
 and the indexes for tobacco and for personal care both rose 0.1 percent. The 
 index for education was unchanged in January, as was the index for 
 communication. The used cars and trucks index was one of the few to decline in 
 January, falling 0.4 percent after increasing late in 2016.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent over the past 12 
 months. The medical care index increased 3.9 percent over that span, and the 
 shelter index rose 3.5 percent. In contrast, the indexes for used cars and 
 trucks, airline fares, and communication all declined over the past 12 months.
 

 Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.5 percent
 over the last 12 months to an index level of 242.839 (1982-84=100). For the 
 month, the index rose 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

 The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) 
 increased 2.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 236.854 
 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.6 percent prior to seasonal
 adjustment.  

 The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 
 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index rose 0.6 percent 
 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 
 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
	
 The Consumer Price Index for February 2017 is scheduled to be released on 
 Wednesday, March 15, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT)

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Consumer Price Index Geographic Revision for 2018

 In January 2018, BLS will introduce a new geographic area sample for the Consumer Price
 Index (CPI). The 2018 revision utilizes the 2010 Decennial Census and incorporates an
 updated area sample design, changes the frequency of publication for several local area
 indexes, and establishes some new local area and aggregate indexes. The first indexes
 using the new structure will be published in February 2018. Additional information on
 the geographic revision is available at: www.bls.gov/cpi/georevision2018.htm.
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Revised seasonally adjusted changes

 Over-the-month percent changes in the U.S. City Average Consumer Price Index 
 for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for All Items and for All Items less food and 
 energy, seasonally adjusted, using former and recalculated seasonal factors for
 2016.


All items
2016 Former Recalculated Difference

January

0.0 0.1 0.1

February

-0.2 -0.1 0.1

March

0.1 0.1 0.0

April

0.4 0.3 -0.1

May

0.2 0.2 0.0

June

0.2 0.2 0.0

July

0.0 0.0 0.0

August

0.2 0.2 0.0

September

0.3 0.3 0.0

October

0.4 0.3 -0.1

November

0.2 0.2 0.0

December

0.3 0.3 0.0
All items less food and energy
2016 Former Recalculated Difference

January

0.3 0.3 0.0

February

0.3 0.2 -0.1

March

0.1 0.1 0.0

April

0.2 0.2 0.0

May

0.2 0.2 0.0

June

0.2 0.1 -0.1

July

0.1 0.1 0.0

August

0.3 0.3 0.0

September

0.1 0.1 0.0

October

0.1 0.1 0.0

November

0.2 0.2 0.0

December

0.2 0.2 0.0
A Note on the Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the previous five years of seasonally adjusted data. For more information on data revisions and exceptions to the usual revision schedule, please see the Fact Sheet on Seasonal Adjustment (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisaqanda.htm) and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiseastimeline.htm). How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year.The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually. Intervention Analysis The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data. 2017 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2017, BLS adjusted 40 series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and natural gas. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of events such as such as the 2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average All items index levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last five years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last five years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. In January 2017, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2012-2016 were calculated and published. For directly adjusted series, the seasonal factors for 2016 will be applied to data for 2017 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2017 indexes. Determining Seasonal Status Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status: from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last five years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. 27 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2017. Contact Information For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please contact us at (202)691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov. Facilities for Sensory Impaired Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. Brief Explanation of the CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 28 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which covers approximately 89 percent of the total population and includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 87 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 24,000 retail establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls of the Bureau’s trained representatives. In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions. The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000. Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U.  These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index.  This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month percentage change based on all retail prices.  For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January-December 2014." These data are available on the CPI home page (www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link: www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2014.pdf. Calculating Index Changes Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes. Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period. Index Point Change CPI 202.416 Less previous index 201.800 Equals index point change .616 Percent Change Index point difference .616 Divided by the previous index 201.800 Equals 0.003 Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003x100 Equals percent change 0.3

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Last Modified Date: February 15, 2017