Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (ET) December 10, 2020 USDL-20-2218
Technical information: (202) 691-7000 • cpi_info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/cpi
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – NOVEMBER 2020
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent
in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in October,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with
no component accounting for more than a quarter of the increase. The food index
declined in November, as a decrease in the food at home index more than offset
a small increase in the food away from home index. The index for energy rose
in November, as increases in indexes for natural gas and electricity more than
offset a decline in the index for gasoline.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in November
after being unchanged the prior month. The indexes for lodging away from home,
household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, airline fares, and
motor vehicle insurance all increased in November. The indexes for used cars
and trucks, medical care, and new vehicles all declined over the month.
The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending November, the
same increase as for the period ending October. The index for all items less
food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months, also the same
increase as the period ending October. The food index rose 3.7 percent over
the last 12 months, while the energy index fell 9.4 percent.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. ended
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Nov.
2020
All items.................. -.1 .6 .6 .4 .2 .0 .2 1.2
Food...................... .7 .6 -.4 .1 .0 .2 -.1 3.7
Food at home............. 1.0 .7 -1.1 -.1 -.4 .1 -.3 3.6
Food away from home (1).. .4 .5 .5 .3 .6 .3 .1 3.8
Energy.................... -1.8 5.1 2.5 .9 .8 .1 .4 -9.4
Energy commodities....... -3.5 11.7 5.3 2.0 -.1 -.5 -.2 -19.3
Gasoline (all types).... -3.5 12.3 5.6 2.0 .1 -.5 -.4 -19.3
Fuel oil................ -6.3 10.2 4.3 3.9 -5.3 -.3 3.6 -26.4
Energy services.......... -.5 -.2 .0 -.2 1.6 .8 1.1 2.3
Electricity............. -.8 -.3 .3 -.2 .9 1.2 .5 1.6
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. .8 .0 -1.0 -.2 4.2 -.7 3.1 4.4
All items less food and
energy................. -.1 .2 .6 .4 .2 .0 .2 1.6
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... -.2 .2 .7 1.0 .8 -.2 .1 1.4
New vehicles............ .3 .0 .8 .0 .3 .4 -.1 1.6
Used cars and trucks.... -.4 -1.2 2.3 5.4 6.7 -.1 -1.3 10.9
Apparel................. -2.3 1.7 1.1 .6 -.5 -1.2 .9 -5.2
Medical care commodities .1 .2 .0 -.1 .0 -.8 -.3 -1.1
Services less energy
services.............. .0 .3 .6 .2 .0 .1 .2 1.7
Shelter................. .2 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 1.9
Transportation services -3.6 2.1 3.6 .0 -.9 .1 1.8 -3.4
Medical care services... .6 .5 .5 .1 .0 -.3 -.1 3.2
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Food
The food index declined 0.1 percent in November following a 0.2-percent increase
in October. The index for food at home declined 0.3 percent after rising in
October. Major grocery store food group indexes were mixed in November. The index
for nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.9 percent in November, its largest monthly
decline since December 2010. The index for other food at home fell 0.6 percent
in November, and the index for cereals and bakery products decreased 0.5 percent;
both indexes increased in October.
The dairy and related products index rose 0.3 percent in November after falling
in September and October. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased
0.1 percent in November. The index for fruits and vegetables was unchanged in
November after rising 0.1 percent in October. The index for food away from home
rose in November, but the 0.1-percent increase was the smallest since April.
The food at home index increased 3.6 percent over the past 12 months. All six
major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest
increase was the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index which rose 5.9 percent
as the beef index increased 7.5 percent. The smallest increase was for the
cereals and bakery products index, which increased 2.4 percent over the last
12 months. The index for food away from home rose 3.8 percent over the last
year. The index for limited service meals rose 5.9 percent, and the index for
full service meals rose 2.9 percent over the span.
Energy
The energy index rose for the sixth month in a row in November, increasing 0.4
percent. The index for natural gas rose 3.1 percent in November after declining
in October. The electricity index rose 0.5 percent in November, its third
consecutive monthly increase. The index for fuel oil also increased in November,
rising 3.6 percent. In contrast to these increases, the gasoline index declined
for the second month in a row, falling 0.4 percent. (Before seasonal adjustment,
gasoline prices fell 2.7 percent in November.)
The energy index fell 9.4 percent over the past 12 months. Energy commodity
indexes fell sharply over the period, with the fuel oil index declining 26.4
percent and the gasoline index decreasing 19.3 percent. Energy service indexes
rose over the last 12 months, with the index for natural gas increasing 4.4
percent and the index for electricity rising 1.6 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November after
being unchanged in October. The shelter index rose 0.1 percent in November, the
fourth 0.1-percent increase in a row. However, the indexes for rent and owners’
equivalent rent were both unchanged in November after both rising 0.2 percent
in October. The index for lodging away from home rose sharply in November,
increasing 3.9 percent after falling 3.2 percent in October.
The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.7 percent in November
after falling in each of the prior 2 months. The recreation index rose 0.4
percent in November; this was the same increase as last month and the fourth
consecutive monthly advance. The apparel index rose 0.9 percent in November
after declining in September and October. The index for airline fares rose 3.5
percent in November after increasing 6.3 percent in October. The index for
motor vehicle insurance rose 1.1 percent in November after falling in September
and October. The indexes for education, for alcoholic beverages, and for
tobacco also increased in November.
The index for used cars and trucks fell 1.3 percent in November, its second
consecutive monthly decline after sharp increases in prior months. The index for
medical care declined slightly in November, falling 0.1 percent. The index for
hospital services rose 0.3 percent and the index for physicians’ services rose
0.1 percent, while the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1 percent over
the month. The new vehicles index declined 0.1 percent in November after rising
in September and October.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the past 12
months. The shelter index rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest
12-month increase since the period ending December 2011. The used cars and trucks
index increased 10.9 percent over the last 12 months and the medical care index
increased 2.4 percent. Despite the monthly increases in November, the indexes
for apparel, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the
past 12 months.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2 percent
over the last 12 months to an index level of 260.229 (1982-84=100). For the
month, the index declined 0.1 prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 253.826
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.1 percent prior to seasonal
adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased
0.9 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index declined 0.1
percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for
the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for December 2020 is scheduled to be released on
Wednesday, January 13, 2021 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on November 2020 Consumer Price Index Data
Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended
since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either
online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in November was affected by the temporary closing or
limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the
number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to
collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices
than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month.
Additional information is available at
www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-consumer-price-index.htm.
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Technical Note
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers
for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two
population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical
workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total
U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of
urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the
poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and
clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people
living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed
Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals.
Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely,
the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition
that meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must
come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's
earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12
months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S.
population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation,
doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that
people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban
areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000
retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes
directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the
index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all
75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every
month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone
calls by the Bureau’s trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location
are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending
of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a
U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published
by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions
and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do
not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure
the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U,
data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered
final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject
to three subsequent quarterly revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the
CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base
for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from the
reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship
can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services rising from $100 to $107.
Sampling Error in the CPI
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is
based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices.
BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month
percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates
can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example,
the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the
U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all
retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each
sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month
percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of
0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent
change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the
latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error,
see https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent
changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected
by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are
not. The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent
changes:
Item A Item B Item C
Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000
Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000
Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000
Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-
SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new
factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The
factors are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2020.pdf.
For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal
Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the
Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are
usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the
same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting
from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows
data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted
data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.
Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining
contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer
Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of
seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are
revised annually.
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which
the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior
to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately
represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the
2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this
outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal
portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the
data prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on
this “prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the
seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied
to the unadjusted data.
For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2020, BLS adjusted 53 series using
intervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor
fuels, electricity, and vehicles.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject
to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5
years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to
be final and not subject to revision. For January 2020, revised seasonal factors and seasonally
adjusted indexes for 2015 to 2019 were calculated and published. For series which are directly
adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors
for 2019 will be applied to data for 2020 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2020 indexes.
Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component
series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.
Determining Seasonal Status
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the
81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used
in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-eight of the 81 components of the U.S.
city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2020.
Contact Information
For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information
and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at
202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.
United States Department of Labor
