JOLTS Experimental State Estimates Background
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) estimates are based on a national sample of approximately 16,000 establishments. These data are used by policymakers, academics, industry experts, economists, and others to better understand the current state of the U.S. economy and to understand the dynamic activity of businesses in the economy that lead to aggregate employment changes. While the current national sample size is designed to support estimates for major industries at the national level and total nonfarm estimates at the regional level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is currently researching the possibility of leveraging the sample to produce model-assisted estimates at the state total nonfarm level. These estimates are currently identified as experimental as updates to the models are incorporated into this new data series. We encourage data users to review these estimates and provide input on both the technical aspects of the models and on the usability of the resulting data.
These experimental state estimates are published as a historical series comprised of an annually revised benchmarked historical component (Composite Synthetic model) and a current component (Extended Composite Synthetic model) which provides monthly "real-time" estimates between lagged benchmarks.
JOLTS Experimental State Estimates Table A contains both models as a 3-month moving average. The estimates are presented as a combination of Composite Synthetic (CompSyn) and Extended Composite Synthetic (ECompSyn) estimates. More specifically, table A includes estimates from the CompSyn model from February 2001 to December 2019 and uses the ECompSyn model to extend the CompSyn model from January 2020 to March 2020. Please note the CompSyn modeled data will be updated with a full year of data annually going forward following the release of 12 months of ECompSyn estimates.
BLS plans to update these data on a quarterly basis while assessing data user input on the models and on the utility of these data. We encourage data users to provide input on these data at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Both models take the following form:
Composite Synthetic Model
Extended Composite Synthetic Model
The Composite Synthetic state industry estimate from one year ago is extended by adjusting that estimate by the ratio of the current Composite Regional model estimate to the Composite Regional model estimate from one year ago. The Extended Composite Synthetic state industry estimates are summed across industry to form an Extended Composite Synthetic state estimate.
This approach ensures that the extended composite synthetic state estimates reflect current JOLTS regional and industry level economic conditions.
A more complete description of both models can be found on the JOLTS Experimental State Estimates Methodology page. Some common questions and answers can be found on our Frequently Asked Questions page.
Last Modified Date: August 19, 2020