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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
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JOLTS State Estimates Background
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) estimates are based on a national sample of approximately 21,000 establishments. These data are used by policymakers, academics, industry experts, economists, and others to better understand the current state of the U.S. economy and to understand the dynamic activity of businesses in the economy that lead to aggregate employment changes. While the current national sample size is designed to support estimates for major industries at the national level and total nonfarm estimates at the regional level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) researched leveraging the sample to produce model-assisted estimates at the state total nonfarm level. We encourage data users to review these estimates and provide input on both the technical aspects of the models and on the usability of the resulting data.
These state estimates are published as a historical series comprised of an annually revised benchmarked historical component called the Composite Synthetic model.
This model is used to refine the state estimates as part of processing and provides annually benchmarked estimates for the entire history of the series through the previous year benchmark—by incorporating data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Estimates are available for not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted estimates. As noted, estimates are presented with the use of the Composite Synthetic (CompSyn) estimates. More specifically, estimates from the CompSyn model are from December 2000 to December 2025. Additionally, the CompSyn model will be updated annually with a full year of data.
Model
The model takes the following form:
J=w1(D)+w2(M)
Where
- J is a JOLTS data element: job openings; hires; total separations; quits; layoffs and discharges
- w1 is a weight between 0 and 1 and w2=1−w1
- D is a data-based estimate, as long as there are 5 or more sample units
- M is a modeled estimate, either using a regional approach or a synthetic approach (both are described below)
- Notes:
- Estimates of J are developed at the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) supersector level.
- Once the NAICS supersector estimates are developed for the region, using either model, the sum of the estimated state levels for the region are ratio adjusted to the regional level of the JOLTS data element.
- Within each state, the ratio adjusted values of J are then aggregated across NAICS supersectors to the total nonfarm level.
Composite Synthetic Model
J=w1(D)+w2(MS)
Where
- MS=a synthetic model that distributes hires to all businesses that increase employment, and separations to all businesses that lose employment, such that the hires and separations equal regional totals. All other JOLTS data elements are then modeled relative to these data elements:
- Synthetic job openings are a function of the ratio of industry-regional job openings and hires. This ratio of published job openings to hires is applied to model hires estimates to derive model job opening estimates. Ratio-adjusting the JOLTS model hires and separations to the regional published JOLTS hires and separations estimates ensures that the JOLTS published churn rate is fully accounted for.
- Synthetic quits and layoffs and discharges are a function of the relative percentage of the individual components of total separations at the industry-regional level. The relative percentage of each component is applied to the model separations estimates to derive model quits and layoffs and discharges.
A more complete description of the model is available on the JOLTS State Estimates Methodology page. Some common questions and answers can be found on our Frequently Asked Questions page.
Last Modified Date: July 22, 2026