For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, August 29, 2024 USDL-24-1776
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2023-2033
The U.S. economy is projected to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 174.6
million and grow 0.4 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.3 percent annual growth
recorded over the 2013-23 decade.
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| Interpreting the Employment Projections |
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| The Employment Projections (EP) program estimates specific values for projected |
| employment levels and growth rates. However, this precision in the data does not |
| account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor |
| market. Focusing on the direction and relative size of projected changes, rather |
| than on the precise value estimates, may yield similar insights into employment |
| trends and themes across occupations and industries. |
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Population and Labor Force
Projected employment growth is driven by labor force growth, which in turn is constrained by
population growth. The civilian noninstitutional population age 16 years and older is
projected to increase by 16.4 million to a level of 283.3 million in 2033, which is nearly 5
million less than the increase that occurred over the 2013-23 decade.
The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow 0.6 percent annually over the
2023-33 decade, slowing slightly from the 0.8 percent annual growth rate that occurred in the
decade from 2013 to 2023. Population growth rates have been slowing for several decades; the
projected 0.6 percent annual growth would, if realized, represent the slowest growth rate
since BLS began publishing this data.
Population growth is projected to be fastest in the older age groups, who are less likely to
participate in the labor force. As a result, the overall labor force participation rate is
projected to fall from 62.6 percent in 2023 to 61.2 percent in 2033. The labor force
participation rate for men is projected to continue a long-term decline through 2033. The rate
for women, which increased throughout the 1980s and 1990s, is expected to edge down in 2033,
about 3 percentage points below the peak rate that was reached in 1999.
Industry Employment
Healthcare and social assistance is projected to have the largest growth and be the fastest
growing industry sector (+1.0 percent annually). Employment growth in the health care and
social assistance sector is expected to be driven by both the aging population and a higher
prevalence of chronic conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Demand for
information technology products and services, such as computer systems design services, data
processing, and software, are expected to drive the demand for workers in the information
sector (+0.7 percent) and professional and business services sector (+0.7 percent).
Utilities growth (+0.6 percent annually) will stem from demand for electricity related to
electric vehicles and new data centers coupled with the shift towards renewable energy. Solar,
wind, geothermal, and other electric power generation are the fastest growing components but
are partially offset by the decline in fossil fuel electric power generation as older
facilities close.
Population growth directly affects many parts of the economy. Slower projected population
growth over the coming decade, particularly among the school-age population, is projected to
slow demand for private educational services and state and local government, which includes
public education.
Retail trade is the only sector projected to decline (-0.2 percent annually) as e-commerce
continues to have a negative effect on in-person sales at retail outlets, although increased
online purchases drive the growth in transportation and warehousing (+0.6 percent) as
companies ship goods directly to consumers.
Occupational Employment
Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are
projected to be among the fastest growing of all occupational groups, growing 15.2 percent
and 8.6 percent, respectively, from 2023 to 2033. The growing elderly population, which
typically has increased healthcare needs compared to younger groups, will in turn increase
demand for caregiving and therapy services. Several of the healthcare occupations with the
fastest projected employment growth--such as nurse practitioners and physician
assistants--can assist various healthcare providers with meeting this growing demand.
These occupations are key members of team-based healthcare systems and may reduce the cost
of delivery of a number of healthcare services.
Similarly, the projected fast growth for community and social service occupations (+8.1
percent) will stem from more individuals seeking assistance for a variety of challenges,
such as marriage and family counseling as well as substance abuse counseling and support.
Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to grow the second fastest of any
occupational group, at 12.9 percent. The growth of computer and mathematical occupations is
expected to stem from demand for upgraded computer services, continued development of
artificial intelligence (AI) solutions, and an increasing amount of data available for
analysis. In addition, the number and severity of cyberattacks and data breaches on U.S.
businesses is expected to lead to greater demand for information security analysts.
Technological advancements may also lead to increased productivity for some occupations.
The growth of e-commerce as well as advances in technology are expected to limit demand for
sales workers leading to employment declines. Similarly, automated systems and related
technology, including AI, are expected to contribute to declines in employment of office
and administrative support workers.
Construction and extraction occupations and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
are projected to grow 5.6 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. These include two renewable
energy generation-related occupations--wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic
installers--which are projected to be the fastest growing occupations over the 2023-33 decade.
The increased demand for electricity is related to growth in electric vehicles and new data
centers. Although these occupations are expected to be fast growing, the two occupations are
projected to add fewer than 20,000 jobs combined.
Occupational Skills
BLS has introduced a new data product beginning with the 2023–33 projections that provides
information about important skills by occupation. This data provides users with additional
information about skills and the ability to view skills data together with the occupational
projections.
More Information
--Detailed information on the 2023–33 labor force and macroeconomy projections and the
2023–33 industry and occupation projections will appear in separate Monthly Labor Review
articles, to be published later in 2024.
--The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about more than 500 detailed
occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the
economy. Each profile features the 2023–33 projections, along with assessments of the job
outlook, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more.
--The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. A mobile version of the OOH is available
for iOS (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/careerinfo/id1476300397) and Android
(https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=gov.dol.ooh_occupational_handbook&hl=en_US&gl=US)
devices.
--Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm.
--Beginning with the 2023–33 projections cycle, BLS introduced a new set of tables providing
information on skills by occupation. A Monthly Labor Review article will be available later
in 2024 that describes the new tables, the methodology, and an analysis of the data.
--Descriptions of the classification systems and projections methods used can be found on the
Employment Projections Methodology Overview page at
https://www.bls.gov/emp/methods-overview.htm.
--Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at
www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm.
--Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at
www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm.
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