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Recovering from the pandemic: A bright outlook for the personal care service industry

By Stanislava Ilic-Godfrey

A new haircut or manicure can boost self-confidence and make people feel better. As a result, many turn to professionals at barbershops, beauty and nail salons, and other personal care services for help to get that perfect haircut or style. The workers in this industry provide many beauty and wellness related treatments for hair, skin, nails, and body. According to employment projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the future looks bright for those who provide these services.

When excluding the recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic, the personal care services industry, which includes barbershops and beauty and nail salons, and other personal care services, is projected to grow 8.1 percent from 2020 to 2030, nearly five times faster than the average 1.7-percent growth for total employment. ¹(See chart 1.)

This Beyond the Numbers article examines the main long-run factors expected to contribute to demand for personal care services employment: increasing demand for personal care and appearance services, a growing customer base, and new and expanded service offerings.

Faster employment growth projected and pandemic impact

The personal care services industry was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Occupations in this industry provide hair and nail care, massages, facials, and other in-person services that require close personal contact. In 2020, government-imposed shutdowns, restrictions on businesses, and mandates for social distancing resulted in the temporary closure of many beauty salons, barber shops, and other personal care services establishments and negatively affected industry employment. However, many businesses started reopening as governments eased restrictions by following a set of mitigating measures, such as wearing masks, more frequent cleaning, and limited indoor capacity to serve their customers.²

Thus, most of the projected growth in this industry (about 24.9 percent) is likely to occur in the short term as cyclical recovery as employment returns to prepandemic levels. The remaining (about 8.1 percent) of the total projected growth (33 percent) in the industry is attributable to the long-term industry growth (See chart 1 and table 1.)

Table 1. Projected employment change for total, all industries and personal care services, by percentage, 2020–30

Industry	Employment percent change, 2020–30	Percent employment change 2020–30, excluding pandemic recovery	Percent employment change 2020–30 due to expected pandemic recovery
Total, all industries	7.7	1.7	6.0
Personal care services	33.0	8.1	24.9
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The personal care services industry includes barbershops and beauty salons, nail salons, and other personal care services.³ In these establishments, workers primarily provide hair and nail care, facials, makeup treatments, and massages. Other services may include tattoos, saunas, ear piercings, hair replacement (except for procedures performed by physician offices), weaving, tanning, and diet and weight-reducing services.

These occupations are typically employed in personal care service:

Barbers, hairdressers, and hairstylists, and cosmetologists typically provide hair care, haircutting, hairstyling, coloring, and a range of other beauty services.

Manicurists and pedicurists take care of cleaning, shaping, and beautifying fingernails and toenails.

Skincare specialists provide a range of skin treatments, including facials, skin peels, scrubs, and masks to clean the skin. They also may give full-body treatments, and head and neck massages to improve the health and appearance of the skin.

Massage therapists give therapeutic massages of soft tissues and joints. They also may help in the assessment of range of motion and muscle strength or propose client therapy plans.

What’s behind the projected fast growth?

The primary long-term factors driving employment growth in the personal care services industry are the general increase in demand for grooming services, a growing customer base, and the introduction of new services.

General increase in demand for grooming hair, nails, and skin

On average, men get a haircut six times a year, compared with women who go to a salon about four times a year.⁴ Throughout the pandemic, people experimented with cutting and styling their own hair, or having someone at home try to do that for them, but many found it hard to match the quality provided by a professional stylist or barber.⁵ In addition, customers continue to seek a variety of treatments, including cuts, highlights, and straightening, that require skillful barbers and hairstylists.⁶ Trends in hair cutting and styling change over time, and these evolving trends are expected to continue to drive demand for hair and beauty salon professionals over the next decade.

Manicures, pedicures, and nail color changes services are considered an affordable luxury by many customers.⁷ Demand for nail services is expected to grow with social media and celebrities’ popularization of various nail shapes, extensions, artsy designs, and coloring, which are more complex than basic manicures and pedicures.⁸ This will continue to contribute to fast employment growth for manicurists and pedicurists in nail salons over the next decade.

The Zoom effect: increased importance of online appearance

The rapid development of smartphone cameras and social media allowed many users to see and examine their own appearance in digital photos and videos. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift to telework and increased time spent and reliance on social media and video platforms for meetings, parties, and other social events.⁹ Many individuals’ increased presence has raised their awareness of their online personal appearance. For many, the skin appearance is increasingly important, as they spend more time on social media and video conferencing apps.¹⁰ Consumers, including those concerned with aging or damaged skin, seek facials, cleaning, and other skin treatments to improve their skin appearance.¹¹ Many beauty and nail salons also offer mini sessions for facials or nail care, quick treatments at a lower cost.¹²

The power of touch: the many benefits of massage

The benefits of massage—such as in reducing stress and anxiety, helping improve sleep, lessening pain and muscle tension—have been known for some time.¹³ Demand for massage therapy is increasing as people consider this type of service as a necessity. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs approved therapeutic massage as an alternative way to manage or treat pain in veterans care.¹⁴ According to the American Massage Therapy Association (AMTA), 63 percent of consumers who received a massage for health and wellness reasons did so as part of a treatment from a doctor or medical provider in 2021.¹⁵

Growing male customer base

In recent years, men have increasingly enjoyed treatments, including hairstyling, nail care, and facials, as they are also becoming more mindful of their appearance and well-being.¹⁶ Many services are becoming available to men beyond basic haircuts, such as eyebrow threading, beard shaping, and body waxing at barber shops, hairstylist salons, and beauty salons.¹⁷

Additionally, manicure and pedicure services are no longer exclusively for women. Men also value the benefits of professional nail care for appearance and other reasons. For many men, pedicures can be an effective way to maintain foot hygiene by keeping the feet and nails clean, increasing blood circulation, or taking care of other foot issues.¹⁸

In an effort to attract more male customers, some businesses operate as salons offering services to men only.¹⁹ Others see this segment of the potential customers as underserved, and offer combined treatments of haircuts, shaves, and hand and foot care to attract new male clients.²⁰ Also, men are seeing more benefits for their wellness from spas and facial treatments.²¹ A 2021 AMTA survey found that men are now more likely than women to get a massage.²²

New and expanding offerings

Numerous new personal care services have been popularized in recent years. In addition to basic manicures and pedicures, nail services include manicure styles, extensions, and a growing trend in artificial nails with various design offerings and adornments.²³

Skin care services are focused on treatments to improve how the skin looks. New treatments are being introduced as part of a greater variety of facials that include services such as peels, microdermabrasion, and ultrasonic technology, among other services.²⁴ Access to massage treatments has become available at places with increased foot traffic, such as at malls and at airports, where massage rooms enable travelers to get massages for stress reduction and relaxation.²⁵ Additionally, eyelash extension is a relatively new trend, with more specialized salons opening to offer this service exclusively.²⁶

The rising popularity of eyebrow shaping, tattoos, and tattoo removal treatments are contributing to the growth in many hair and skin personal appearance occupations.²⁷ Some establishments are also adding new services to attract customers, such as meditation, or food and beverage offerings with nail works.²⁸ The expansion in the variety of services available will contribute to projected employment growth among the group of occupations that provide skin, hair, and nail care.

Conclusion

Employment in the personal care services industry is expected to grow almost 5 times faster than the average for the total economy over the 2020–30 period. Increasing demand for hair, skin, nail, and massage services from a growing customer population will drive employment growth over the projected 10-year period. In addition, an expanded customer base to include more men and increased offerings of services will also contribute to faster employment in the industry and occupations providing these services, such as barbers, hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists, manicurists and pedicurists, skin care specialists, and massage therapists.

This Beyond the Numbers article was prepared by Stanislava Ilic-Godfrey, economist in Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Email: ep-info@bls.gov; telephone: (202) 691-6700.

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