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Handbook of Methods Employment Projections Data sources

Employment Projections: Data sources

As a nonsurvey program, Employment Projections (EP) is fundamentally different from most other U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) programs. Instead of collecting primary source data through surveys or censuses, EP relies predominantly on publicly available data that are produced by other BLS programs and other government offices. In addition, BLS uses data accessed through a contract with Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit.

BLS data

EP makes extensive use of BLS datasets in its projections. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are used in the labor force, industry, and occupational employment projections. Current Employment Statistics (CES) data are also used to project industry employment, as are data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) data are used to project occupational employment. Price data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) are used to calculate and project deflators.

Census data

EP bases labor force projections on long-term demographic projections published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Census also produces several datasets that BLS uses to estimate industry output, such as the Economic Census, the Annual Survey of Manufacturers (ASM), the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS), and the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Census data on inventory levels, found in MWTS and MRTS, as well as data from the Service Annual Survey, are used to calculate and project the change in private inventories (CIPI).

Bureau of Economic Analysis data

EP relies on the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for most of the final demand and intermediate output data. The main BEA data sources are the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and the benchmark and annual input-output accounts.

Other sources: government

Due to the specific nature of some industries, EP also uses additional sources to estimate industry output, such as information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). There are several other small governmental data sources as well.

Other sources: private

BLS also contracts with Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for use of the MA/US macroeconomic model, which contains a large number of data series and models that are integral to the EP production process.

Using all these sources, EP analysts construct a historical time series of final demand, commodity output, industry output, and industry employment. At each stage, analysts review all time series for outliers and adjust them where necessary using analyst discretion based on qualitative and statistical assessments of the relative reliability of conflicting data. Similar review processes are used for projected data. Major data sources are listed in exhibit 1 below.