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Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Bureau of Labor Statistics > Current Population Survey > Home

Reliability of Current Population Survey estimates

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is based on a sample of U.S. households. Each month, approximately 60,000 scientifically selected households are contacted for participation in the survey so that the BLS can publish timely information about the U.S. labor market, such as the unemployment rate.

Statistics based on the CPS are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. When a sample, rather than the entire population, is surveyed, estimates may differ from the true population values that they represent. The component of this difference that occurs because samples differ by chance is known as sampling error, and its variability is measured by the standard error of the estimate.

An estimate and its respective standard error can be used to build a confidence interval, which is a range of values centered around the estimate that is likely to include the true population value with a degree of confidence. BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-percent level of confidence.

Estimates from the CPS are also affected by nonsampling error, which can occur for many reasons, including the failure to sample a segment of the population, inability to obtain information for all respondents in the sample, inability or unwillingness of respondents to provide correct information, mistakes made by respondents, and errors made in the collection or processing of the data. A discussion of nonsampling error is available in Chapter 4.1 of the Current Population Survey Design and Methodology (Technical paper 77, October 2019).

Resources for determining the reliability and statistical significance of CPS estimates

There are tools available for examining the reliability of CPS estimates and determining whether estimates are statistically different from each other:

  • Information about whether monthly labor force indicators are statistically different from their values 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months ago is now available online for the latest CPS estimates published in the Employment Situation news release:
    • Full set of CPS statistical significance tables (updated monthly) (XLSX)
    • Summary table: Changes in selected labor force indicators with a statistical significance test (updated monthly) (PDF) (HTML)
  • BLS also provides the following resources and guidance on how to calculate standard errors and confidence intervals for CPS estimates.
    • Instructions for calculating approximate standard errors and confidence intervals for CPS estimates (PDF)
      • Standard error illustrations, a step by step tool to calculate standard errors (XLSX)
    • Parameters and factors for calculating standard errors, tables PF-1 through PF-16 (updated October 2023) (XLSX)

Last modified date: November 21, 2025