MXP Research

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducted research from 2017 to 2024 to evaluate whether administrative trade records could replace price and product information based on a directly-collected survey to track price changes in the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (MXPI). The innovative research on the alternative data source was successfully implemented in 2025 to replace directly-collected survey data for more homogeneous product areas, consisting of approximately 40 percent of goods trade.

Research validated that a non-survey data source can be used to replace directly-collected survey prices to calculate MXPI for some product areas. Major statistical and methodological changes were established to calculate high-quality unit-value indexes (UVI) using prices reported in administrative trade records. The UVIs were validated for consistency and quality and subsequently replaced prices previously reported via the directly-collected survey. These UVIs were incorporated into calculations for the official U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes in 2025. For a detailed technical explanation, see BLS Working Paper 578.

The non-survey data source consists of administrative trade records collected for regulatory purposes by the federal government; millions of entries record daily trade transactions of merchandise goods by U.S. importers and exporters. The records are securely processed for statistical purposes by the U.S. Census Bureau and subsequently by the BLS. Before 2025, the BLS compiled the annual administrative trade records to select representative companies in the sample selection process of the U.S. Import and Export Price Survey. For 2025 onward, the BLS also uses the monthly records to calculate prices for select homogeneous product areas to publish in the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes.

As part of the research schedule, historical time series of import and export price indexes for 5-digit BEA End Use goods were calculated solely using the non-survey data source. The time series data file is available at the link below. The historical time series are a research product and are not subject to the same level of scrutiny and quality review as official price indexes; nonetheless, the methods and calculations are consistent with the current methodology used in the official price indexes for 2025 onward.

Improvements

Replacing survey collection with administrative trade records to calculate price indexes resulted in a reduction in response burden as well as numerous improvements. The administrative trade records are collected by other government agencies from importers and exporters and provide a nearly complete record of all international trade shipments. The administrative records provide significantly more price observations than were previously included in the calculation of the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, allowing more detailed price indexes to be published. In fact, the number of published price indexes increased by 50 percent when the administrative trade records became an official data source in 2025. In addition, the values in the administrative records reflect current trade, which provides the information needed to calculate price indexes using a superlative index formula. The application of this formula is a methodological improvement that captures current trade trends and mitigates substitution bias for those price indexes whose prices are based on administrative trade records; the Lowe formula continues to be used in the calculation of the upper-level price indexes.

Limitations

The new data source is used in a limited fashion in order to minimize the likelihood of unit-value bias occurring in official MXPI. A unit value is a quantity-weighted average price of all products within a unit. Unit-value bias is mismeasurement of price trends reflecting changes in product mix within a unit instead of price changes for the products in that unit, and this bias is known to occur when calculating prices from administrative trade records. When integrating administrative trade records as a source to calculate price indexes, BLS addressed unit-value bias by applying new statistical methods to mitigate the bias and reduced the scope to cover only homogenous product areas where unit-value bias is less of a concern. Only those unit-value indexes that showed minimal unit-value bias in the research phase were selected to replace the directly-collected survey data source.

Methodology

Published price indexes are aggregated calculations that provide information on price change while also protecting company information from disclosure. The administrative trade records for imports and exports are organized by Harmonized System product categories—the 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) number and 10-digit Schedule B number, respectively—and contain various transaction characteristics including price and quantity. Transaction characteristics are combined to group like-records into unique entry-level items. For each 5-digit BEA End Use product category, the transaction characteristics that specify the entry-level items are selected by following the Match Adjusted R-Squared Method in Chessa (2021). Monthly weighted unit values are calculated for each entry-level item with price and quantity information. These entry-level items are then aggregated to the 10-digit Harmonized System classification level with a superlative Tornqvist index formula. The weights used in the Tornqvist formula are the current month's weights and the average of the previous year's weights following the method in Vartia et al. (2021). The current month's price is compared to the average price for the previous year. These entry-level item weight and price data are annually chained to the previous year using the Tornqvist formula. These lower-level Tornqvist unit-value indexes are then aggregated to upper-level price indexes for 5-digit BEA End Use products, using the current methodology for the official Import and Export Price Indexes.

Available Research Data

The research unit-value index data series for 68 import and 56 export 5-digit BEA End Use product categories cover the period January 2017 through February 2024. The product categories include 26 import and 32 export homogeneous product areas that were not officially published until January 2025, as well as 42 import and 24 export homogeneous product areas that have been published continuously. Unit-value indexes presented here are selected from 138 and 130 import and export BEA End Use product categories, respectively. The unit-value indexes in this research series are considered to have minimal unit-value bias and show similarities to current official MXPI. These price indexes have been officially published since January 2025. For each research unit-value index that had a comparable official price index before January 2025, the BLS series ID is listed for ease of comparison. The research import unit-value indexes, introduced in September 2022, and export unit-value indexes, introduced in September 2021, were revised in September 2022 and in March 2023. A revised dataset of research unit-value indexes through January 2025 will be made available in late 2025. (The previous versions of the research data series covering the periods January 2012 through December 2018 and January 2012 through December 2021 are available upon request.)

View the import unit-value indexes in Excel (updated September 27, 2024)

View the export unit-value indexes in Excel (updated September 27, 2024)

Additional Information

Publications describing the unit-value index methodology are listed here. Note that some methodologies described in previous publications are not updated. Refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods for current methodology.

Chessa, A. 2021. "A Product Match Adjusted R Squared Method for Defining Products with Transaction Data." Journal of Official Statistics. 37(2): 411–432. https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0018.

Fast, D. and S.E. Fleck. 2022. “Unit Values for Import and Export Price Indexes – A Proof of Concept,” in Big Data for 21st Century Statistics. University of Chicago Press, edited by K.G. Abraham, R.S. Jarmin, B. Moyer & M.D. Shapiro. https://www.bls.gov/mxp/data/unit-values-import-export-price-indexes.pdf.

Fast, D. and S.E. Fleck. 2019. “Measuring Export Price Movements with Administrative Trade Data.” Working Paper 518. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June. https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2019/pdf/ec190080.pdf.

Fast, D., S.E. Fleck and D. Smith. 2022. “Unit Value Indexes for Exports – New Developments Using Administrative Trade Data.” Journal of Official Statistics. Volume 38. Issue 1. March, pp. 83–106. https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0005.

Fleck, S. and S. Paben. 2023. “Case Study 5: BLS Import/Export Price Indexes Measured Utilizing Census Administrative Trade Data,” in Mirel LB, Singpurwalla D, Hoppe T, Liliedahl E, Schmitt R, Weber J. A Framework for Data Quality: Case Studies, FCSM-23-02 Data Quality Framework Implementation Subcommittee, Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology. October. pp. 30–35. https://www.fcsm.gov/assets/files/docs/FCSM.23.02_DQ_case_studies_FINAL.pdf.

Smith, D., A. Enderson-Ohrt, M. Fisher, C Grant., A. Wong, and B. Wullbrandt. 2024. “Enhancing Import and Export Price Indexes: A New Methodology Using Administrative Trade Data.” Working Paper 578. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. December. https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2024/ec240080.htm.

Vartia, Y., A. Suoperä, K. Nieminen and S. Montonen. 2021. “Circular Error in Price Index Numbers Based on Scanner Data.” https://ssrn.com/abstract=3801530.

Contacts

For questions pertaining to the unit-value indexes or related research, please contact the International Price Program by email or by phone: 202-691-7101.

Last Modified Date: September 25, 2025