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On October 18, 2018, figure 3 was revised because of a calculation error.
This article uses data from the Current Employment Statistics survey to examine employment changes a decade after total nonfarm employment peaked in January 2008. The analysis reveals that while some industries recovered fully and subsequently expanded, others have yet to do so.
Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey data on total nonfarm employment, a coincident indicator, help identify key turning points in the economy.[1] The relationship between payroll employment and business cycle dates from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not fully emerge until the CES program has finalized, benchmarked, and seasonally adjusted its data and the NBER has declared the business cycle dates.[2] CES employment peaks and troughs can be initially determined as early as 6 months after a high or low employment level. Therefore, a relationship can be established well after a business cycle turn. Nonetheless, payroll employment peaks and troughs track closely with NBER’s business cycle dates.
The NBER is a private, nonpartisan organization disseminating research findings among academics, policymakers, and business professionals. Part of its work involves identifying U.S. business cycles. It defines a recession as a widespread decline in economic activity, with significant dropoffs in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Contractions begin after the peak of a business cycle and end after the trough. The NBER determined that the Great Recession started in December 2007 and lasted through June 2009.[3] (See table 1.)
CES employment turning points | NBER business cycle dates | Number of months CES employment turning points lead (+) or lag (−) NBER business cycle dates | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peak month | Trough month | Peak month | Trough month | Months from NBER peak | Months from NBER trough |
Nov 1943 | Sep 1945 | Feb 1945 | Oct 1945 | 15 | 1 |
Sep 1948 | Oct 1949 | Nov 1948 | Oct 1949 | 2 | 0 |
Jul 1953 | Aug 1954 | Jul 1953 | May 1954 | 0 | -3 |
Apr 1957 | Jun 1958 | Aug 1957 | Apr 1958 | 4 | -2 |
Apr 1960 | Feb 1961 | Apr 1960 | Feb 1961 | 0 | 0 |
Mar 1970 | Nov 1970 | Dec 1969 | Nov 1970 | -3 | 0 |
Jul 1974 | Apr 1975 | Nov 1973 | Mar 1975 | -8 | -1 |
(1) | (1) | Jan 1980 | Jul 1980 | ― | ― |
Jul 1981 | Dec 1982 | Jul 1981 | Nov 1982 | 0 | -1 |
Jun 1990 | May 1991 | Jul 1990 | Mar 1991 | 1 | -2 |
Feb 2001 | Aug 2003 | Mar 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | -21 |
Jan 2008 | Feb 2010 | Dec 2007 | Jun 2009 | -1 | -8 |
Notes: (1) No peak or trough designated because period of downturn did not meet CES criteria for peaks and troughs. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey; and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). |
CES total nonfarm employment peaked in January 2008, lagging the official start of the recession by 1 month, and troughed in February 2010, lagging the official end of the recession by 8 months.[4] With January 2018 marking 10 years since the last peak in total nonfarm employment, this article analyzes employment changes in the intervening period.
The Great Recession resulted in a period of dramatic job declines for the nation. Over-the-month employment changes in total nonfarm employment reflected the depth of the downward trend. Monthly job losses began in February 2008, reached a magnitude of 802,000 in March 2009, and then began to taper. (See figure 1.)
Date | Over-the-month change | Annual average |
---|---|---|
Jan 2007 | 234 | 96 |
Feb 2007 | 85 | 96 |
Mar 2007 | 214 | 96 |
Apr 2007 | 59 | 96 |
May 2007 | 153 | 96 |
Jun 2007 | 77 | 96 |
Jul 2007 | -30 | 96 |
Aug 2007 | -28 | 96 |
Sep 2007 | 96 | 96 |
Oct 2007 | 78 | 96 |
Nov 2007 | 106 | 96 |
Dec 2007 | 104 | 96 |
Jan 2008 | 8 | -297 |
Feb 2008 | -81 | -297 |
Mar 2008 | -55 | -297 |
Apr 2008 | -229 | -297 |
May 2008 | -184 | -297 |
Jun 2008 | -154 | -297 |
Jul 2008 | -213 | -297 |
Aug 2008 | -277 | -297 |
Sep 2008 | -443 | -297 |
Oct 2008 | -475 | -297 |
Nov 2008 | -759 | -297 |
Dec 2008 | -707 | -297 |
Jan 2009 | -787 | -422 |
Feb 2009 | -704 | -422 |
Mar 2009 | -802 | -422 |
Apr 2009 | -704 | -422 |
May 2009 | -354 | -422 |
Jun 2009 | -469 | -422 |
Jul 2009 | -342 | -422 |
Aug 2009 | -196 | -422 |
Sep 2009 | -229 | -422 |
Oct 2009 | -209 | -422 |
Nov 2009 | 12 | -422 |
Dec 2009 | -277 | -422 |
Jan 2010 | 18 | 88 |
Feb 2010 | -73 | 88 |
Mar 2010 | 193 | 88 |
Apr 2010 | 221 | 88 |
May 2010 | 522 | 88 |
Jun 2010 | -140 | 88 |
Jul 2010 | -78 | 88 |
Aug 2010 | -16 | 88 |
Sep 2010 | -63 | 88 |
Oct 2010 | 267 | 88 |
Nov 2010 | 129 | 88 |
Dec 2010 | 73 | 88 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
During the 25 months between the series’ peak and trough, total nonfarm employment decreased by 8.7 million. (See figure 2.) Employment recovered 76 months later, in May 2014, marking the most prolonged recovery period in the history of the series. Since recovering, total nonfarm employment had grown by 9.2 million through January 2018.
Period | Employment |
---|---|
Jan 2007 | 137,497 |
Feb 2007 | 137,582 |
Mar 2007 | 137,796 |
Apr 2007 | 137,855 |
May 2007 | 138,008 |
Jun 2007 | 138,085 |
Jul 2007 | 138,055 |
Aug 2007 | 138,027 |
Sep 2007 | 138,123 |
Oct 2007 | 138,201 |
Nov 2007 | 138,307 |
Dec 2007 | 138,411 |
Jan 2008 | 138,419 |
Feb 2008 | 138,338 |
Mar 2008 | 138,283 |
Apr 2008 | 138,054 |
May 2008 | 137,870 |
Jun 2008 | 137,716 |
Jul 2008 | 137,503 |
Aug 2008 | 137,226 |
Sep 2008 | 136,783 |
Oct 2008 | 136,308 |
Nov 2008 | 135,549 |
Dec 2008 | 134,842 |
Jan 2009 | 134,055 |
Feb 2009 | 133,351 |
Mar 2009 | 132,549 |
Apr 2009 | 131,845 |
May 2009 | 131,491 |
Jun 2009 | 131,022 |
Jul 2009 | 130,680 |
Aug 2009 | 130,484 |
Sep 2009 | 130,255 |
Oct 2009 | 130,046 |
Nov 2009 | 130,058 |
Dec 2009 | 129,781 |
Jan 2010 | 129,799 |
Feb 2010 | 129,726 |
Mar 2010 | 129,919 |
Apr 2010 | 130,140 |
May 2010 | 130,662 |
Jun 2010 | 130,522 |
Jul 2010 | 130,444 |
Aug 2010 | 130,428 |
Sep 2010 | 130,365 |
Oct 2010 | 130,632 |
Nov 2010 | 130,761 |
Dec 2010 | 130,834 |
Jan 2011 | 130,878 |
Feb 2011 | 131,060 |
Mar 2011 | 131,314 |
Apr 2011 | 131,637 |
May 2011 | 131,718 |
Jun 2011 | 131,952 |
Jul 2011 | 132,024 |
Aug 2011 | 132,136 |
Sep 2011 | 132,369 |
Oct 2011 | 132,578 |
Nov 2011 | 132,723 |
Dec 2011 | 132,924 |
Jan 2012 | 133,272 |
Feb 2012 | 133,505 |
Mar 2012 | 133,769 |
Apr 2012 | 133,841 |
May 2012 | 133,958 |
Jun 2012 | 134,026 |
Jul 2012 | 134,182 |
Aug 2012 | 134,355 |
Sep 2012 | 134,549 |
Oct 2012 | 134,702 |
Nov 2012 | 134,832 |
Dec 2012 | 135,075 |
Jan 2013 | 135,282 |
Feb 2013 | 135,547 |
Mar 2013 | 135,703 |
Apr 2013 | 135,882 |
May 2013 | 136,122 |
Jun 2013 | 136,280 |
Jul 2013 | 136,391 |
Aug 2013 | 136,651 |
Sep 2013 | 136,852 |
Oct 2013 | 137,062 |
Nov 2013 | 137,283 |
Dec 2013 | 137,376 |
Jan 2014 | 137,550 |
Feb 2014 | 137,732 |
Mar 2014 | 137,993 |
Apr 2014 | 138,304 |
May 2014 | 138,556 |
Jun 2014 | 138,862 |
Jul 2014 | 139,058 |
Aug 2014 | 139,284 |
Sep 2014 | 139,568 |
Oct 2014 | 139,823 |
Nov 2014 | 140,130 |
Dec 2014 | 140,381 |
Jan 2015 | 140,592 |
Feb 2015 | 140,859 |
Mar 2015 | 140,937 |
Apr 2015 | 141,219 |
May 2015 | 141,545 |
Jun 2015 | 141,736 |
Jul 2015 | 141,992 |
Aug 2015 | 142,156 |
Sep 2015 | 142,244 |
Oct 2015 | 142,595 |
Nov 2015 | 142,859 |
Dec 2015 | 143,093 |
Jan 2016 | 143,196 |
Feb 2016 | 143,453 |
Mar 2016 | 143,688 |
Apr 2016 | 143,862 |
May 2016 | 143,896 |
Jun 2016 | 144,181 |
Jul 2016 | 144,506 |
Aug 2016 | 144,681 |
Sep 2016 | 144,945 |
Oct 2016 | 145,085 |
Nov 2016 | 145,257 |
Dec 2016 | 145,437 |
Jan 2017 | 145,696 |
Feb 2017 | 145,896 |
Mar 2017 | 145,969 |
Apr 2017 | 146,144 |
May 2017 | 146,299 |
Jun 2017 | 146,538 |
Jul 2017 | 146,728 |
Aug 2017 | 146,949 |
Sep 2017 | 146,963 |
Oct 2017 | 147,234 |
Nov 2017 | 147,450 |
Dec 2017 | 147,625 |
Jan 2018 | 147,801 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
Over the recovery and expansion through January 2018, payrolls grew for 88 consecutive months.[5] This upward streak bested the previous record of 48 months (July 1986–June 1990), becoming the longest positive trend in employment growth dating back to 1939.[6] Since the series’ trough in February 2010, over-the-month employment changes in total nonfarm employment had averaged 190,000 through January 2018, resulting in an overall employment growth of 18.1 million.
Employment losses by major industry sector reflect the Great Recession’s breadth. An analysis of employment peaks by industry shows that the recession hit certain industries first. Employment levels in manufacturing, information, construction, financial activities, retail trade, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality all peaked before total nonfarm employment. Job declines in other industries—mining and logging, government, other services, and transportation and warehousing—occurred after the peak in total nonfarm employment, as it took time for the recession to ripple its way through the economy. The employment recovery by industry sector has been uneven, with some industries recovering completely and then expanding, and others having yet to recover. Figure 3 displays the employment recovery, by sector, through January 2018, based on the recession-related peak of each industry.
Industry sector | Recovery |
---|---|
Manufacturing | -12 |
Mining and logging | -10 |
Information | -9 |
Construction | -8 |
Government | -2 |
Total nonfarm | 7 |
Financial activities | 1 |
Retail trade | 2 |
Other services | 5 |
Professional and business services | 15 |
Transportation and warehousing | 15 |
Leisure and hospitality | 20 |
Note: Employment recovery estimates are calculated as the percent change from a sector’s January 2018 employment level to its recession-related peak level. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
The all-time employment peak in manufacturing occurred in June 1979, when the industry reached a level of 19.6 million jobs. (See figure 4.) Since then, employment has trended downward, with trade liberalization, productivity gains, and technological advances cited as some reasons for the industry’s long-term decline.[7] Job losses in manufacturing tend to accelerate during contractionary periods, and the Great Recession was no exception. In manufacturing, complete recoveries from cyclical downturns are rare.
Period | Employment |
---|---|
Jan 1979 | 19,388 |
Feb 1979 | 19,409 |
Mar 1979 | 19,453 |
Apr 1979 | 19,450 |
May 1979 | 19,509 |
Jun 1979 | 19,553 |
Jul 1979 | 19,531 |
Aug 1979 | 19,406 |
Sep 1979 | 19,442 |
Oct 1979 | 19,390 |
Nov 1979 | 19,299 |
Dec 1979 | 19,301 |
Jan 1980 | 19,282 |
Feb 1980 | 19,219 |
Mar 1980 | 19,217 |
Apr 1980 | 18,973 |
May 1980 | 18,726 |
Jun 1980 | 18,490 |
Jul 1980 | 18,276 |
Aug 1980 | 18,414 |
Sep 1980 | 18,445 |
Oct 1980 | 18,506 |
Nov 1980 | 18,601 |
Dec 1980 | 18,640 |
Jan 1981 | 18,639 |
Feb 1981 | 18,613 |
Mar 1981 | 18,647 |
Apr 1981 | 18,711 |
May 1981 | 18,766 |
Jun 1981 | 18,789 |
Jul 1981 | 18,785 |
Aug 1981 | 18,748 |
Sep 1981 | 18,712 |
Oct 1981 | 18,566 |
Nov 1981 | 18,409 |
Dec 1981 | 18,223 |
Jan 1982 | 18,047 |
Feb 1982 | 17,981 |
Mar 1982 | 17,857 |
Apr 1982 | 17,683 |
May 1982 | 17,588 |
Jun 1982 | 17,430 |
Jul 1982 | 17,278 |
Aug 1982 | 17,160 |
Sep 1982 | 17,074 |
Oct 1982 | 16,853 |
Nov 1982 | 16,722 |
Dec 1982 | 16,690 |
Jan 1983 | 16,705 |
Feb 1983 | 16,706 |
Mar 1983 | 16,711 |
Apr 1983 | 16,794 |
May 1983 | 16,885 |
Jun 1983 | 16,960 |
Jul 1983 | 17,059 |
Aug 1983 | 17,118 |
Sep 1983 | 17,255 |
Oct 1983 | 17,367 |
Nov 1983 | 17,479 |
Dec 1983 | 17,551 |
Jan 1984 | 17,630 |
Feb 1984 | 17,728 |
Mar 1984 | 17,806 |
Apr 1984 | 17,872 |
May 1984 | 17,916 |
Jun 1984 | 17,967 |
Jul 1984 | 18,013 |
Aug 1984 | 18,034 |
Sep 1984 | 18,019 |
Oct 1984 | 18,024 |
Nov 1984 | 18,016 |
Dec 1984 | 18,023 |
Jan 1985 | 18,009 |
Feb 1985 | 17,966 |
Mar 1985 | 17,939 |
Apr 1985 | 17,886 |
May 1985 | 17,855 |
Jun 1985 | 17,819 |
Jul 1985 | 17,776 |
Aug 1985 | 17,756 |
Sep 1985 | 17,718 |
Oct 1985 | 17,708 |
Nov 1985 | 17,697 |
Dec 1985 | 17,693 |
Jan 1986 | 17,686 |
Feb 1986 | 17,663 |
Mar 1986 | 17,624 |
Apr 1986 | 17,616 |
May 1986 | 17,593 |
Jun 1986 | 17,530 |
Jul 1986 | 17,497 |
Aug 1986 | 17,489 |
Sep 1986 | 17,498 |
Oct 1986 | 17,477 |
Nov 1986 | 17,472 |
Dec 1986 | 17,478 |
Jan 1987 | 17,465 |
Feb 1987 | 17,499 |
Mar 1987 | 17,507 |
Apr 1987 | 17,525 |
May 1987 | 17,542 |
Jun 1987 | 17,537 |
Jul 1987 | 17,593 |
Aug 1987 | 17,630 |
Sep 1987 | 17,691 |
Oct 1987 | 17,729 |
Nov 1987 | 17,775 |
Dec 1987 | 17,809 |
Jan 1988 | 17,790 |
Feb 1988 | 17,823 |
Mar 1988 | 17,844 |
Apr 1988 | 17,874 |
May 1988 | 17,892 |
Jun 1988 | 17,916 |
Jul 1988 | 17,926 |
Aug 1988 | 17,891 |
Sep 1988 | 17,914 |
Oct 1988 | 17,966 |
Nov 1988 | 18,003 |
Dec 1988 | 18,025 |
Jan 1989 | 18,057 |
Feb 1989 | 18,055 |
Mar 1989 | 18,060 |
Apr 1989 | 18,055 |
May 1989 | 18,040 |
Jun 1989 | 18,013 |
Jul 1989 | 17,980 |
Aug 1989 | 17,964 |
Sep 1989 | 17,922 |
Oct 1989 | 17,895 |
Nov 1989 | 17,886 |
Dec 1989 | 17,881 |
Jan 1990 | 17,797 |
Feb 1990 | 17,893 |
Mar 1990 | 17,868 |
Apr 1990 | 17,845 |
May 1990 | 17,797 |
Jun 1990 | 17,776 |
Jul 1990 | 17,704 |
Aug 1990 | 17,649 |
Sep 1990 | 17,609 |
Oct 1990 | 17,577 |
Nov 1990 | 17,428 |
Dec 1990 | 17,395 |
Jan 1991 | 17,330 |
Feb 1991 | 17,211 |
Mar 1991 | 17,140 |
Apr 1991 | 17,093 |
May 1991 | 17,070 |
Jun 1991 | 17,044 |
Jul 1991 | 17,015 |
Aug 1991 | 17,025 |
Sep 1991 | 17,010 |
Oct 1991 | 16,999 |
Nov 1991 | 16,961 |
Dec 1991 | 16,916 |
Jan 1992 | 16,839 |
Feb 1992 | 16,829 |
Mar 1992 | 16,805 |
Apr 1992 | 16,831 |
May 1992 | 16,835 |
Jun 1992 | 16,826 |
Jul 1992 | 16,819 |
Aug 1992 | 16,783 |
Sep 1992 | 16,761 |
Oct 1992 | 16,751 |
Nov 1992 | 16,758 |
Dec 1992 | 16,769 |
Jan 1993 | 16,791 |
Feb 1993 | 16,805 |
Mar 1993 | 16,795 |
Apr 1993 | 16,772 |
May 1993 | 16,766 |
Jun 1993 | 16,742 |
Jul 1993 | 16,739 |
Aug 1993 | 16,741 |
Sep 1993 | 16,769 |
Oct 1993 | 16,778 |
Nov 1993 | 16,800 |
Dec 1993 | 16,815 |
Jan 1994 | 16,855 |
Feb 1994 | 16,862 |
Mar 1994 | 16,897 |
Apr 1994 | 16,933 |
May 1994 | 16,962 |
Jun 1994 | 17,010 |
Jul 1994 | 17,026 |
Aug 1994 | 17,081 |
Sep 1994 | 17,115 |
Oct 1994 | 17,144 |
Nov 1994 | 17,186 |
Dec 1994 | 17,217 |
Jan 1995 | 17,262 |
Feb 1995 | 17,265 |
Mar 1995 | 17,263 |
Apr 1995 | 17,278 |
May 1995 | 17,259 |
Jun 1995 | 17,247 |
Jul 1995 | 17,218 |
Aug 1995 | 17,240 |
Sep 1995 | 17,247 |
Oct 1995 | 17,216 |
Nov 1995 | 17,209 |
Dec 1995 | 17,231 |
Jan 1996 | 17,208 |
Feb 1996 | 17,229 |
Mar 1996 | 17,193 |
Apr 1996 | 17,204 |
May 1996 | 17,222 |
Jun 1996 | 17,226 |
Jul 1996 | 17,223 |
Aug 1996 | 17,255 |
Sep 1996 | 17,252 |
Oct 1996 | 17,268 |
Nov 1996 | 17,277 |
Dec 1996 | 17,284 |
Jan 1997 | 17,297 |
Feb 1997 | 17,316 |
Mar 1997 | 17,340 |
Apr 1997 | 17,349 |
May 1997 | 17,362 |
Jun 1997 | 17,387 |
Jul 1997 | 17,389 |
Aug 1997 | 17,452 |
Sep 1997 | 17,465 |
Oct 1997 | 17,513 |
Nov 1997 | 17,556 |
Dec 1997 | 17,588 |
Jan 1998 | 17,619 |
Feb 1998 | 17,627 |
Mar 1998 | 17,637 |
Apr 1998 | 17,637 |
May 1998 | 17,624 |
Jun 1998 | 17,608 |
Jul 1998 | 17,422 |
Aug 1998 | 17,563 |
Sep 1998 | 17,557 |
Oct 1998 | 17,512 |
Nov 1998 | 17,465 |
Dec 1998 | 17,449 |
Jan 1999 | 17,427 |
Feb 1999 | 17,395 |
Mar 1999 | 17,368 |
Apr 1999 | 17,344 |
May 1999 | 17,333 |
Jun 1999 | 17,295 |
Jul 1999 | 17,308 |
Aug 1999 | 17,287 |
Sep 1999 | 17,281 |
Oct 1999 | 17,272 |
Nov 1999 | 17,282 |
Dec 1999 | 17,280 |
Jan 2000 | 17,284 |
Feb 2000 | 17,285 |
Mar 2000 | 17,302 |
Apr 2000 | 17,298 |
May 2000 | 17,279 |
Jun 2000 | 17,296 |
Jul 2000 | 17,322 |
Aug 2000 | 17,287 |
Sep 2000 | 17,230 |
Oct 2000 | 17,217 |
Nov 2000 | 17,202 |
Dec 2000 | 17,181 |
Jan 2001 | 17,104 |
Feb 2001 | 17,028 |
Mar 2001 | 16,938 |
Apr 2001 | 16,802 |
May 2001 | 16,661 |
Jun 2001 | 16,515 |
Jul 2001 | 16,382 |
Aug 2001 | 16,232 |
Sep 2001 | 16,117 |
Oct 2001 | 15,972 |
Nov 2001 | 15,825 |
Dec 2001 | 15,711 |
Jan 2002 | 15,587 |
Feb 2002 | 15,515 |
Mar 2002 | 15,443 |
Apr 2002 | 15,392 |
May 2002 | 15,337 |
Jun 2002 | 15,298 |
Jul 2002 | 15,256 |
Aug 2002 | 15,171 |
Sep 2002 | 15,119 |
Oct 2002 | 15,060 |
Nov 2002 | 14,992 |
Dec 2002 | 14,912 |
Jan 2003 | 14,866 |
Feb 2003 | 14,781 |
Mar 2003 | 14,721 |
Apr 2003 | 14,609 |
May 2003 | 14,557 |
Jun 2003 | 14,493 |
Jul 2003 | 14,402 |
Aug 2003 | 14,376 |
Sep 2003 | 14,347 |
Oct 2003 | 14,334 |
Nov 2003 | 14,316 |
Dec 2003 | 14,300 |
Jan 2004 | 14,290 |
Feb 2004 | 14,279 |
Mar 2004 | 14,287 |
Apr 2004 | 14,315 |
May 2004 | 14,342 |
Jun 2004 | 14,332 |
Jul 2004 | 14,330 |
Aug 2004 | 14,345 |
Sep 2004 | 14,331 |
Oct 2004 | 14,332 |
Nov 2004 | 14,307 |
Dec 2004 | 14,287 |
Jan 2005 | 14,257 |
Feb 2005 | 14,273 |
Mar 2005 | 14,269 |
Apr 2005 | 14,250 |
May 2005 | 14,256 |
Jun 2005 | 14,227 |
Jul 2005 | 14,226 |
Aug 2005 | 14,203 |
Sep 2005 | 14,175 |
Oct 2005 | 14,192 |
Nov 2005 | 14,187 |
Dec 2005 | 14,193 |
Jan 2006 | 14,210 |
Feb 2006 | 14,209 |
Mar 2006 | 14,214 |
Apr 2006 | 14,226 |
May 2006 | 14,203 |
Jun 2006 | 14,213 |
Jul 2006 | 14,188 |
Aug 2006 | 14,159 |
Sep 2006 | 14,125 |
Oct 2006 | 14,075 |
Nov 2006 | 14,041 |
Dec 2006 | 14,015 |
Jan 2007 | 14,008 |
Feb 2007 | 13,997 |
Mar 2007 | 13,970 |
Apr 2007 | 13,945 |
May 2007 | 13,929 |
Jun 2007 | 13,911 |
Jul 2007 | 13,889 |
Aug 2007 | 13,828 |
Sep 2007 | 13,790 |
Oct 2007 | 13,764 |
Nov 2007 | 13,757 |
Dec 2007 | 13,746 |
Jan 2008 | 13,725 |
Feb 2008 | 13,696 |
Mar 2008 | 13,659 |
Apr 2008 | 13,599 |
May 2008 | 13,564 |
Jun 2008 | 13,504 |
Jul 2008 | 13,430 |
Aug 2008 | 13,358 |
Sep 2008 | 13,275 |
Oct 2008 | 13,147 |
Nov 2008 | 13,034 |
Dec 2008 | 12,850 |
Jan 2009 | 12,561 |
Feb 2009 | 12,380 |
Mar 2009 | 12,208 |
Apr 2009 | 12,030 |
May 2009 | 11,862 |
Jun 2009 | 11,726 |
Jul 2009 | 11,668 |
Aug 2009 | 11,626 |
Sep 2009 | 11,591 |
Oct 2009 | 11,538 |
Nov 2009 | 11,509 |
Dec 2009 | 11,475 |
Jan 2010 | 11,460 |
Feb 2010 | 11,453 |
Mar 2010 | 11,453 |
Apr 2010 | 11,489 |
May 2010 | 11,525 |
Jun 2010 | 11,545 |
Jul 2010 | 11,561 |
Aug 2010 | 11,553 |
Sep 2010 | 11,563 |
Oct 2010 | 11,562 |
Nov 2010 | 11,585 |
Dec 2010 | 11,595 |
Jan 2011 | 11,621 |
Feb 2011 | 11,654 |
Mar 2011 | 11,675 |
Apr 2011 | 11,704 |
May 2011 | 11,713 |
Jun 2011 | 11,727 |
Jul 2011 | 11,746 |
Aug 2011 | 11,764 |
Sep 2011 | 11,769 |
Oct 2011 | 11,780 |
Nov 2011 | 11,770 |
Dec 2011 | 11,802 |
Jan 2012 | 11,838 |
Feb 2012 | 11,860 |
Mar 2012 | 11,898 |
Apr 2012 | 11,916 |
May 2012 | 11,927 |
Jun 2012 | 11,936 |
Jul 2012 | 11,964 |
Aug 2012 | 11,960 |
Sep 2012 | 11,954 |
Oct 2012 | 11,961 |
Nov 2012 | 11,950 |
Dec 2012 | 11,960 |
Jan 2013 | 11,983 |
Feb 2013 | 11,996 |
Mar 2013 | 11,999 |
Apr 2013 | 12,000 |
May 2013 | 12,000 |
Jun 2013 | 12,004 |
Jul 2013 | 11,984 |
Aug 2013 | 12,014 |
Sep 2013 | 12,032 |
Oct 2013 | 12,056 |
Nov 2013 | 12,079 |
Dec 2013 | 12,083 |
Jan 2014 | 12,082 |
Feb 2014 | 12,105 |
Mar 2014 | 12,121 |
Apr 2014 | 12,135 |
May 2014 | 12,147 |
Jun 2014 | 12,171 |
Jul 2014 | 12,190 |
Aug 2014 | 12,206 |
Sep 2014 | 12,224 |
Oct 2014 | 12,256 |
Nov 2014 | 12,282 |
Dec 2014 | 12,291 |
Jan 2015 | 12,296 |
Feb 2015 | 12,301 |
Mar 2015 | 12,313 |
Apr 2015 | 12,318 |
May 2015 | 12,336 |
Jun 2015 | 12,340 |
Jul 2015 | 12,355 |
Aug 2015 | 12,346 |
Sep 2015 | 12,345 |
Oct 2015 | 12,358 |
Nov 2015 | 12,354 |
Dec 2015 | 12,360 |
Jan 2016 | 12,384 |
Feb 2016 | 12,367 |
Mar 2016 | 12,348 |
Apr 2016 | 12,354 |
May 2016 | 12,336 |
Jun 2016 | 12,357 |
Jul 2016 | 12,371 |
Aug 2016 | 12,347 |
Sep 2016 | 12,340 |
Oct 2016 | 12,337 |
Nov 2016 | 12,339 |
Dec 2016 | 12,351 |
Jan 2017 | 12,369 |
Feb 2017 | 12,390 |
Mar 2017 | 12,400 |
Apr 2017 | 12,410 |
May 2017 | 12,414 |
Jun 2017 | 12,428 |
Jul 2017 | 12,424 |
Aug 2017 | 12,463 |
Sep 2017 | 12,469 |
Oct 2017 | 12,489 |
Nov 2017 | 12,519 |
Dec 2017 | 12,558 |
Jan 2018 | 12,578 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
Heading into the most recent employment downturn, manufacturing employment peaked at 14.3 million in August 2004, 41 months before the apex of total nonfarm employment. In the lead-up to the Great Recession, manufacturing job losses were attributed to growing trade deficits.[8] Once the downturn began, employment losses accelerated. Between the August 2004 peak and the March 2010 trough, the sector shed 2.9 million jobs. Most of these job losses—68 percent—came from the durable goods portion of manufacturing.
The 1-month diffusion index for manufacturing—an index measuring employment-change dispersion—remained below 50 for 57 of the 67 months during this period.[9] An index value below 50 indicates that more manufacturing industries are shedding jobs than adding them over the month. Therefore, job losses during the period were pervasive, with the February 2009 value of 7.9 being the lowest point in the index’s 28-year history. Since November 2016, however, the sector has seen a change in trend. Through January 2018, employment in manufacturing increased by 239,000 jobs, with 65 percent of these gains coming from durable goods. Within durable goods manufacturing, fabricated metals (+51,000) and machinery (+36,000) accounted for most of the job gains. Nonetheless, manufacturing employment has yet to recover the remaining 1.8 million jobs needed to reach its prerecession peak level.
Employment in mining, the major component industry within the mining and logging sector, is closely tied to the price of petroleum. As petroleum prices increase, employment tends to grow; as petroleum prices fall, employment tends to decline. (See figure 5.) As total nonfarm employment peaked in January 2008, employment in mining continued to rise, peaking 8 months later, in September. On September 30, 2008, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at $100.70 per barrel, before tumbling to $40 per barrel by year’s end.[10] Subsequently, the mining industry lost 115,000 jobs through its October 2009 trough.
Mining employment recovered in May 2011 and continued to expand by another 122,000 jobs through its September 2014 peak. However, another collapse in oil prices that began in November 2014 led to employment losses totaling 259,000 jobs through the October 2016 trough. The ongoing oil glut was due, in part, to a boom in U.S. production, coined the “shale revolution” and stemming from hydraulic fracturing.[11] More recently, rising global demand, production outages in Venezuela, and a production cut agreement enacted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia in January 2017 have driven up oil prices and, therefore, employment.[12] In January 2018, mining employment remained 72,000 jobs shy of its September 2008 peak and 198,000 jobs short of its most recent peak (September 2014).
Period | Employment (thousands) | WTI crude oil price |
---|---|---|
Jan 2007 | 644.1 | $54.51 |
Feb 2007 | 649.2 | 59.28 |
Mar 2007 | 653.6 | 60.44 |
Apr 2007 | 657.4 | 63.98 |
May 2007 | 660.7 | 63.46 |
Jun 2007 | 663.3 | 67.49 |
Jul 2007 | 668.8 | 74.12 |
Aug 2007 | 668.1 | 72.36 |
Sep 2007 | 667.9 | 79.92 |
Oct 2007 | 669.4 | 85.8 |
Nov 2007 | 676.2 | 94.77 |
Dec 2007 | 680.8 | 91.69 |
Jan 2008 | 687.3 | 92.97 |
Feb 2008 | 689.3 | 95.39 |
Mar 2008 | 697.1 | 105.45 |
Apr 2008 | 696.0 | 112.58 |
May 2008 | 702.9 | 125.4 |
Jun 2008 | 710.7 | 133.88 |
Jul 2008 | 715.2 | 133.37 |
Aug 2008 | 722.9 | 116.67 |
Sep 2008 | 726.5 | 104.11 |
Oct 2008 | 725.4 | 76.61 |
Nov 2008 | 720.4 | 57.31 |
Dec 2008 | 715.9 | 41.12 |
Jan 2009 | 707.4 | 41.71 |
Feb 2009 | 694.4 | 39.09 |
Mar 2009 | 677.0 | 47.94 |
Apr 2009 | 660.8 | 49.65 |
May 2009 | 644.0 | 59.03 |
Jun 2009 | 635.9 | 69.64 |
Jul 2009 | 628.5 | 64.15 |
Aug 2009 | 619.6 | 71.05 |
Sep 2009 | 614.3 | 69.41 |
Oct 2009 | 611.4 | 75.72 |
Nov 2009 | 614.5 | 77.99 |
Dec 2009 | 614.1 | 74.47 |
Jan 2010 | 619.1 | 78.33 |
Feb 2010 | 624.8 | 76.39 |
Mar 2010 | 631.2 | 81.2 |
Apr 2010 | 635.9 | 84.29 |
May 2010 | 645.7 | 73.74 |
Jun 2010 | 650.9 | 75.34 |
Jul 2010 | 657.5 | 76.32 |
Aug 2010 | 665.4 | 76.6 |
Sep 2010 | 673.1 | 75.24 |
Oct 2010 | 681.1 | 81.89 |
Nov 2010 | 687.5 | 84.25 |
Dec 2010 | 685.8 | 89.15 |
Jan 2011 | 686.5 | 89.17 |
Feb 2011 | 689.0 | 88.58 |
Mar 2011 | 703.2 | 102.86 |
Apr 2011 | 719.4 | 109.53 |
May 2011 | 729.9 | 100.9 |
Jun 2011 | 741.7 | 96.26 |
Jul 2011 | 752.2 | 97.3 |
Aug 2011 | 756.2 | 86.33 |
Sep 2011 | 765.5 | 85.52 |
Oct 2011 | 772.3 | 86.32 |
Nov 2011 | 775.1 | 97.16 |
Dec 2011 | 781.4 | 98.56 |
Jan 2012 | 789.1 | 100.27 |
Feb 2012 | 795.5 | 102.2 |
Mar 2012 | 799.0 | 106.16 |
Apr 2012 | 801.5 | 103.32 |
May 2012 | 803.7 | 94.66 |
Jun 2012 | 803.0 | 82.3 |
Jul 2012 | 800.2 | 87.9 |
Aug 2012 | 799.2 | 94.13 |
Sep 2012 | 794.4 | 94.51 |
Oct 2012 | 785.5 | 89.49 |
Nov 2012 | 792.1 | 86.53 |
Dec 2012 | 796.4 | 87.86 |
Jan 2013 | 800.4 | 94.76 |
Feb 2013 | 806.7 | 95.31 |
Mar 2013 | 808.0 | 92.94 |
Apr 2013 | 805.4 | 92.02 |
May 2013 | 810.0 | 94.51 |
Jun 2013 | 812.5 | 95.77 |
Jul 2013 | 811.6 | 104.67 |
Aug 2013 | 812.5 | 106.57 |
Sep 2013 | 816.0 | 106.29 |
Oct 2013 | 817.4 | 100.54 |
Nov 2013 | 815.3 | 93.86 |
Dec 2013 | 813.3 | 97.63 |
Jan 2014 | 818.6 | 94.62 |
Feb 2014 | 822.8 | 100.82 |
Mar 2014 | 826.8 | 100.8 |
Apr 2014 | 835.0 | 102.07 |
May 2014 | 836.3 | 102.18 |
Jun 2014 | 840.3 | 105.79 |
Jul 2014 | 845.1 | 103.59 |
Aug 2014 | 844.4 | 96.54 |
Sep 2014 | 852.0 | 93.21 |
Oct 2014 | 848.7 | 84.4 |
Nov 2014 | 846.0 | 75.79 |
Dec 2014 | 843.6 | 59.29 |
Jan 2015 | 834.9 | 47.22 |
Feb 2015 | 822.0 | 50.58 |
Mar 2015 | 806.1 | 47.82 |
Apr 2015 | 790.0 | 54.45 |
May 2015 | 767.8 | 59.27 |
Jun 2015 | 764.9 | 59.82 |
Jul 2015 | 755.4 | 50.9 |
Aug 2015 | 743.3 | 42.87 |
Sep 2015 | 726.8 | 45.48 |
Oct 2015 | 719.5 | 46.22 |
Nov 2015 | 703.2 | 42.44 |
Dec 2015 | 693.5 | 37.19 |
Jan 2016 | 678.9 | 31.68 |
Feb 2016 | 657.5 | 30.32 |
Mar 2016 | 638.8 | 37.55 |
Apr 2016 | 626.4 | 40.75 |
May 2016 | 615.0 | 46.71 |
Jun 2016 | 605.6 | 48.76 |
Jul 2016 | 600.7 | 44.65 |
Aug 2016 | 599.7 | 44.72 |
Sep 2016 | 595.8 | 45.18 |
Oct 2016 | 593.5 | 49.78 |
Nov 2016 | 596.1 | 45.66 |
Dec 2016 | 595.1 | 51.97 |
Jan 2017 | 595.9 | 52.5 |
Feb 2017 | 604.6 | 53.47 |
Mar 2017 | 610.4 | 49.33 |
Apr 2017 | 620.0 | 51.06 |
May 2017 | 625.3 | 48.48 |
Jun 2017 | 630.2 | 45.18 |
Jul 2017 | 632.5 | 46.63 |
Aug 2017 | 641.5 | 48.04 |
Sep 2017 | 641.0 | 49.82 |
Oct 2017 | 643.2 | 51.58 |
Nov 2017 | 647.3 | 56.64 |
Dec 2017 | 648.3 | 57.88 |
Jan 2018 | 654.4 | 63.7 |
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey; and U.S. Energy Information Administration. |
The information industry brings together establishments that create and disseminate various types of cultural products. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines the industry as “establishments engaged in the following processes: (a) producing and distributing information and cultural products, (b) providing the means to transmit or distribute these products as well as data or communications, and (c) processing data.”[13] Information is an ever-changing industry affected by emerging technologies. Industries within the information sector include publishing and broadcasting activities (except over the internet), internet publishing and broadcasting, motion picture and sound recording industries, and telecommunications. Employment in information peaked in May 2007, 8 months before total nonfarm employment, and troughed in January 2013—losing 379,000 jobs in the interim. The industry recovered 158,000, or 41.7 percent, of the jobs it lost during the most recent downturn, before reaching another employment peak in October 2016. As of January 2018, information employment has fallen by 59,000 and remains shy of the May 2007 peak by 280,000 jobs. (See figure 6.)
Period | Employment |
---|---|
Jan 2007 | 3,029 |
Feb 2007 | 3,033 |
Mar 2007 | 3,029 |
Apr 2007 | 3,034 |
May 2007 | 3,040 |
Jun 2007 | 3,038 |
Jul 2007 | 3,037 |
Aug 2007 | 3,029 |
Sep 2007 | 3,030 |
Oct 2007 | 3,028 |
Nov 2007 | 3,025 |
Dec 2007 | 3,024 |
Jan 2008 | 3,025 |
Feb 2008 | 3,019 |
Mar 2008 | 3,021 |
Apr 2008 | 3,012 |
May 2008 | 3,008 |
Jun 2008 | 3,001 |
Jul 2008 | 2,987 |
Aug 2008 | 2,973 |
Sep 2008 | 2,961 |
Oct 2008 | 2,950 |
Nov 2008 | 2,932 |
Dec 2008 | 2,909 |
Jan 2009 | 2,891 |
Feb 2009 | 2,878 |
Mar 2009 | 2,864 |
Apr 2009 | 2,833 |
May 2009 | 2,807 |
Jun 2009 | 2,796 |
Jul 2009 | 2,780 |
Aug 2009 | 2,767 |
Sep 2009 | 2,768 |
Oct 2009 | 2,763 |
Nov 2009 | 2,752 |
Dec 2009 | 2,743 |
Jan 2010 | 2,737 |
Feb 2010 | 2,737 |
Mar 2010 | 2,718 |
Apr 2010 | 2,715 |
May 2010 | 2,709 |
Jun 2010 | 2,703 |
Jul 2010 | 2,703 |
Aug 2010 | 2,702 |
Sep 2010 | 2,697 |
Oct 2010 | 2,695 |
Nov 2010 | 2,689 |
Dec 2010 | 2,682 |
Jan 2011 | 2,678 |
Feb 2011 | 2,673 |
Mar 2011 | 2,672 |
Apr 2011 | 2,674 |
May 2011 | 2,679 |
Jun 2011 | 2,685 |
Jul 2011 | 2,676 |
Aug 2011 | 2,634 |
Sep 2011 | 2,677 |
Oct 2011 | 2,677 |
Nov 2011 | 2,676 |
Dec 2011 | 2,678 |
Jan 2012 | 2,665 |
Feb 2012 | 2,676 |
Mar 2012 | 2,678 |
Apr 2012 | 2,679 |
May 2012 | 2,685 |
Jun 2012 | 2,674 |
Jul 2012 | 2,680 |
Aug 2012 | 2,676 |
Sep 2012 | 2,670 |
Oct 2012 | 2,667 |
Nov 2012 | 2,674 |
Dec 2012 | 2,675 |
Jan 2013 | 2,661 |
Feb 2013 | 2,699 |
Mar 2013 | 2,699 |
Apr 2013 | 2,696 |
May 2013 | 2,711 |
Jun 2013 | 2,707 |
Jul 2013 | 2,720 |
Aug 2013 | 2,690 |
Sep 2013 | 2,707 |
Oct 2013 | 2,719 |
Nov 2013 | 2,724 |
Dec 2013 | 2,726 |
Jan 2014 | 2,723 |
Feb 2014 | 2,719 |
Mar 2014 | 2,724 |
Apr 2014 | 2,722 |
May 2014 | 2,718 |
Jun 2014 | 2,724 |
Jul 2014 | 2,727 |
Aug 2014 | 2,734 |
Sep 2014 | 2,732 |
Oct 2014 | 2,728 |
Nov 2014 | 2,736 |
Dec 2014 | 2,737 |
Jan 2015 | 2,737 |
Feb 2015 | 2,741 |
Mar 2015 | 2,735 |
Apr 2015 | 2,742 |
May 2015 | 2,750 |
Jun 2015 | 2,751 |
Jul 2015 | 2,754 |
Aug 2015 | 2,754 |
Sep 2015 | 2,761 |
Oct 2015 | 2,768 |
Nov 2015 | 2,754 |
Dec 2015 | 2,762 |
Jan 2016 | 2,761 |
Feb 2016 | 2,775 |
Mar 2016 | 2,782 |
Apr 2016 | 2,788 |
May 2016 | 2,753 |
Jun 2016 | 2,800 |
Jul 2016 | 2,801 |
Aug 2016 | 2,806 |
Sep 2016 | 2,815 |
Oct 2016 | 2,819 |
Nov 2016 | 2,815 |
Dec 2016 | 2,812 |
Jan 2017 | 2,810 |
Feb 2017 | 2,810 |
Mar 2017 | 2,809 |
Apr 2017 | 2,798 |
May 2017 | 2,794 |
Jun 2017 | 2,796 |
Jul 2017 | 2,793 |
Aug 2017 | 2,792 |
Sep 2017 | 2,784 |
Oct 2017 | 2,784 |
Nov 2017 | 2,780 |
Dec 2017 | 2,776 |
Jan 2018 | 2,760 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
Construction activity is considered a leading indicator of the business cycle, with housing starts and building permits serving as key gauges of the health of the economy.[14] Employment in the sector peaked in April 2006, 21 months before total nonfarm employment, and then declined by 2,299,000, hitting a trough in January 2011. Through January 2018, the industry had yet to fully recover, falling short of the April 2006 peak by 626,000 jobs. The current weakness in the construction industry is affected by the difficulty in recruiting and retaining construction workers, particularly in specialty trades.[15] Many former specialty workers moved on to other industries after the downturn.[16] This challenge is further complicated by a national housing supply shortage and, thereby, appreciating home prices.[17]
In the CES survey, government employment covers federal (civilian employees only), state, and local workers.[18] Employment in the public sector is closely tied to appropriated funds.[19] For this reason, budget cuts and uncertainty due to changes in tax revenues can hamper government employment.[20] In addition, employment trends can take more time to materialize. Government employment peaked 15 months after the peak in total nonfarm employment and then troughed 47 months after total nonfarm employment reached its low. Government employment fell by 867,000 during this period (April 2009 through January 2014). From January 2014 through January 2018, employment in government grew by 509,000, but remained short of a full recovery by 358,000 jobs.
The housing crash and the credit crunch deeply afflicted employment in financial activities, as major institutions lost billions of dollars, and some shuttered altogether.[21] Employment in the industry peaked in December 2006, 13 months before total nonfarm employment, and troughed in February 2011, with losses totaling 718,000. The sector’s 50-month peak-to-trough period was twice as long as that of total nonfarm employment, signaling a more protracted employment slump than the one in the aggregate economy. In addition, job losses in financial activities were larger than those in any other employment downturn in the sector’s history. Employment in financial activities exceeded its prerecession peak in January 2017 and expanded by 117,000 through January 2018. (See figure 7.)
Period | Employment |
---|---|
Jan 2006 | 8,307 |
Feb 2006 | 8,332 |
Mar 2006 | 8,348 |
Apr 2006 | 8,369 |
May 2006 | 8,376 |
Jun 2006 | 8,362 |
Jul 2006 | 8,366 |
Aug 2006 | 8,374 |
Sep 2006 | 8,390 |
Oct 2006 | 8,385 |
Nov 2006 | 8,394 |
Dec 2006 | 8,394 |
Jan 2007 | 8,389 |
Feb 2007 | 8,390 |
Mar 2007 | 8,379 |
Apr 2007 | 8,360 |
May 2007 | 8,371 |
Jun 2007 | 8,369 |
Jul 2007 | 8,370 |
Aug 2007 | 8,341 |
Sep 2007 | 8,319 |
Oct 2007 | 8,306 |
Nov 2007 | 8,292 |
Dec 2007 | 8,282 |
Jan 2008 | 8,277 |
Feb 2008 | 8,268 |
Mar 2008 | 8,266 |
Apr 2008 | 8,258 |
May 2008 | 8,246 |
Jun 2008 | 8,236 |
Jul 2008 | 8,219 |
Aug 2008 | 8,204 |
Sep 2008 | 8,170 |
Oct 2008 | 8,138 |
Nov 2008 | 8,101 |
Dec 2008 | 8,070 |
Jan 2009 | 8,018 |
Feb 2009 | 7,970 |
Mar 2009 | 7,927 |
Apr 2009 | 7,870 |
May 2009 | 7,844 |
Jun 2009 | 7,821 |
Jul 2009 | 7,807 |
Aug 2009 | 7,782 |
Sep 2009 | 7,769 |
Oct 2009 | 7,754 |
Nov 2009 | 7,756 |
Dec 2009 | 7,743 |
Jan 2010 | 7,733 |
Feb 2010 | 7,724 |
Mar 2010 | 7,708 |
Apr 2010 | 7,713 |
May 2010 | 7,699 |
Jun 2010 | 7,689 |
Jul 2010 | 7,676 |
Aug 2010 | 7,676 |
Sep 2010 | 7,683 |
Oct 2010 | 7,682 |
Nov 2010 | 7,679 |
Dec 2010 | 7,683 |
Jan 2011 | 7,680 |
Feb 2011 | 7,676 |
Mar 2011 | 7,681 |
Apr 2011 | 7,685 |
May 2011 | 7,701 |
Jun 2011 | 7,691 |
Jul 2011 | 7,694 |
Aug 2011 | 7,698 |
Sep 2011 | 7,693 |
Oct 2011 | 7,706 |
Nov 2011 | 7,719 |
Dec 2011 | 7,727 |
Jan 2012 | 7,736 |
Feb 2012 | 7,744 |
Mar 2012 | 7,768 |
Apr 2012 | 7,771 |
May 2012 | 7,781 |
Jun 2012 | 7,781 |
Jul 2012 | 7,779 |
Aug 2012 | 7,787 |
Sep 2012 | 7,801 |
Oct 2012 | 7,809 |
Nov 2012 | 7,816 |
Dec 2012 | 7,826 |
Jan 2013 | 7,836 |
Feb 2013 | 7,852 |
Mar 2013 | 7,857 |
Apr 2013 | 7,872 |
May 2013 | 7,885 |
Jun 2013 | 7,887 |
Jul 2013 | 7,903 |
Aug 2013 | 7,901 |
Sep 2013 | 7,904 |
Oct 2013 | 7,910 |
Nov 2013 | 7,912 |
Dec 2013 | 7,914 |
Jan 2014 | 7,915 |
Feb 2014 | 7,932 |
Mar 2014 | 7,933 |
Apr 2014 | 7,945 |
May 2014 | 7,953 |
Jun 2014 | 7,965 |
Jul 2014 | 7,978 |
Aug 2014 | 7,993 |
Sep 2014 | 8,008 |
Oct 2014 | 8,020 |
Nov 2014 | 8,034 |
Dec 2014 | 8,042 |
Jan 2015 | 8,060 |
Feb 2015 | 8,072 |
Mar 2015 | 8,082 |
Apr 2015 | 8,087 |
May 2015 | 8,096 |
Jun 2015 | 8,112 |
Jul 2015 | 8,134 |
Aug 2015 | 8,146 |
Sep 2015 | 8,152 |
Oct 2015 | 8,168 |
Nov 2015 | 8,181 |
Dec 2015 | 8,188 |
Jan 2016 | 8,203 |
Feb 2016 | 8,211 |
Mar 2016 | 8,227 |
Apr 2016 | 8,248 |
May 2016 | 8,263 |
Jun 2016 | 8,279 |
Jul 2016 | 8,301 |
Aug 2016 | 8,321 |
Sep 2016 | 8,327 |
Oct 2016 | 8,335 |
Nov 2016 | 8,343 |
Dec 2016 | 8,369 |
Jan 2017 | 8,397 |
Feb 2017 | 8,404 |
Mar 2017 | 8,410 |
Apr 2017 | 8,423 |
May 2017 | 8,434 |
Jun 2017 | 8,449 |
Jul 2017 | 8,462 |
Aug 2017 | 8,477 |
Sep 2017 | 8,485 |
Oct 2017 | 8,494 |
Nov 2017 | 8,503 |
Dec 2017 | 8,511 |
Jan 2018 | 8,514 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
Retail trade employment peaked in December 2007, a month before total nonfarm employment, and reached a trough exactly 2 years later. In the interim, job losses totaled 1.2 million. Employment in the sector is tied to consumer demand, which has increasingly tilted toward mobile shopping. From the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2018, the proportion of e-commerce sales more than doubled, accounting for 9.5 percent of total sales.[22] (See figure 8.) Facing strong e-commerce competition, many brick-and-mortar stores have closed some or all of their locations. In fact, in 2017, there were 1,200 malls across the United States, a figure that is projected to fall to 900, or by 25 percent, in 10 years.[23] The expansion of e-commerce is captured in the nonstore retailers component of retail trade, which has been growing since 2010. Overall, retail trade employment recovered in April 2015, subsequently expanding by 304,200 jobs through January 2018.
Period | Percent |
---|---|
Q1 2007 | 3.20 |
Q2 2007 | 3.40 |
Q3 2007 | 3.50 |
Q4 2007 | 3.50 |
Q1 2008 | 3.60 |
Q2 2008 | 3.60 |
Q3 2008 | 3.60 |
Q4 2008 | 3.60 |
Q1 2009 | 3.80 |
Q2 2009 | 4.00 |
Q3 2009 | 4.10 |
Q4 2009 | 4.10 |
Q1 2010 | 4.20 |
Q2 2010 | 4.40 |
Q3 2010 | 4.60 |
Q4 2010 | 4.60 |
Q1 2011 | 4.70 |
Q2 2011 | 4.80 |
Q3 2011 | 4.90 |
Q4 2011 | 5.10 |
Q1 2012 | 5.10 |
Q2 2012 | 5.30 |
Q3 2012 | 5.40 |
Q4 2012 | 5.50 |
Q1 2013 | 5.60 |
Q2 2013 | 5.80 |
Q3 2013 | 5.90 |
Q4 2013 | 6.10 |
Q1 2014 | 6.20 |
Q2 2014 | 6.30 |
Q3 2014 | 6.50 |
Q4 2014 | 6.60 |
Q1 2015 | 6.90 |
Q2 2015 | 7.10 |
Q3 2015 | 7.30 |
Q4 2015 | 7.50 |
Q1 2016 | 7.80 |
Q2 2016 | 8.00 |
Q3 2016 | 8.20 |
Q4 2016 | 8.20 |
Q1 2017 | 8.49 |
Q2 2017 | 8.87 |
Q3 2017 | 9.08 |
Q4 2017 | 9.13 |
Q1 2018 | 9.46 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. |
Establishments engaged in activities not specified elsewhere in the NAICS are classified in the category of other services.[24] Component industries in this sector include equipment and machinery repair, religious administration, grant making, dry cleaning and laundry services, and personal care services. Employment in other services peaked in April 2008 (3 months after total nonfarm employment) and troughed in June 2010 (also 3 months after total nonfarm employment), shedding 225,000 jobs in the interim. Employment in other services recovered in March 2014, 2 months before total nonfarm employment. From that time through January 2018, the sector added 272,000 jobs, with personal and laundry services accounting for 55 percent of the gain.
Employment in professional and business services reached a peak in December 2007, a month before total nonfarm employment, and then declined for 20 months. Between December 2007 and August 2009, the industry contracted by 1.7 million jobs. As seen in figure 9, employment changes in temporary help services, a component industry within professional and business services, are a leading indicator for total nonfarm employment. Firms tend to use these services as a means of quickly meeting demand for their products. Temporary help services employment peaked in August 2006, 17 months before total nonfarm employment, and troughed 3 years later (August 2009), 6 months before payroll employment. Since 2011, the computer systems design and related services industry, together with management and technical consulting services, has been among the fastest growing industries in the CES sample. As a result, employment in professional and business services has seen strong growth in recent years—surpassing its prerecession peak in October 2012. Through January 2018, the industry expanded by an additional 2.6 million jobs.
Period | Total nonfarm | Temporary help services |
---|---|---|
Jan 2006 | 135,450 | 2,621 |
Feb 2006 | 135,762 | 2,631 |
Mar 2006 | 136,059 | 2,633 |
Apr 2006 | 136,227 | 2,634 |
May 2006 | 136,258 | 2,650 |
Jun 2006 | 136,337 | 2,649 |
Jul 2006 | 136,543 | 2,648 |
Aug 2006 | 136,722 | 2,657 |
Sep 2006 | 136,870 | 2,648 |
Oct 2006 | 136,882 | 2,639 |
Nov 2006 | 137,090 | 2,637 |
Dec 2006 | 137,263 | 2,643 |
Jan 2007 | 137,497 | 2,647 |
Feb 2007 | 137,582 | 2,642 |
Mar 2007 | 137,796 | 2,636 |
Apr 2007 | 137,855 | 2,628 |
May 2007 | 138,008 | 2,609 |
Jun 2007 | 138,085 | 2,605 |
Jul 2007 | 138,055 | 2,596 |
Aug 2007 | 138,027 | 2,586 |
Sep 2007 | 138,123 | 2,567 |
Oct 2007 | 138,201 | 2,573 |
Nov 2007 | 138,307 | 2,567 |
Dec 2007 | 138,411 | 2,553 |
Jan 2008 | 138,419 | 2,543 |
Feb 2008 | 138,338 | 2,505 |
Mar 2008 | 138,283 | 2,480 |
Apr 2008 | 138,054 | 2,466 |
May 2008 | 137,870 | 2,434 |
Jun 2008 | 137,716 | 2,403 |
Jul 2008 | 137,503 | 2,372 |
Aug 2008 | 137,226 | 2,338 |
Sep 2008 | 136,783 | 2,313 |
Oct 2008 | 136,308 | 2,239 |
Nov 2008 | 135,549 | 2,120 |
Dec 2008 | 134,842 | 2,046 |
Jan 2009 | 134,055 | 1,961 |
Feb 2009 | 133,351 | 1,914 |
Mar 2009 | 132,549 | 1,856 |
Apr 2009 | 131,845 | 1,796 |
May 2009 | 131,491 | 1,773 |
Jun 2009 | 131,022 | 1,752 |
Jul 2009 | 130,680 | 1,749 |
Aug 2009 | 130,484 | 1,747 |
Sep 2009 | 130,255 | 1,769 |
Oct 2009 | 130,046 | 1,792 |
Nov 2009 | 130,058 | 1,850 |
Dec 2009 | 129,781 | 1,894 |
Jan 2010 | 129,799 | 1,952 |
Feb 2010 | 129,726 | 1,975 |
Mar 2010 | 129,919 | 2,003 |
Apr 2010 | 130,140 | 2,032 |
May 2010 | 130,662 | 2,064 |
Jun 2010 | 130,522 | 2,093 |
Jul 2010 | 130,444 | 2,079 |
Aug 2010 | 130,428 | 2,118 |
Sep 2010 | 130,365 | 2,139 |
Oct 2010 | 130,632 | 2,176 |
Nov 2010 | 130,761 | 2,201 |
Dec 2010 | 130,834 | 2,247 |
Jan 2011 | 130,878 | 2,240 |
Feb 2011 | 131,060 | 2,260 |
Mar 2011 | 131,314 | 2,294 |
Apr 2011 | 131,637 | 2,299 |
May 2011 | 131,718 | 2,293 |
Jun 2011 | 131,952 | 2,285 |
Jul 2011 | 132,024 | 2,279 |
Aug 2011 | 132,136 | 2,316 |
Sep 2011 | 132,369 | 2,344 |
Oct 2011 | 132,578 | 2,366 |
Nov 2011 | 132,723 | 2,379 |
Dec 2011 | 132,924 | 2,391 |
Jan 2012 | 133,272 | 2,425 |
Feb 2012 | 133,505 | 2,465 |
Mar 2012 | 133,769 | 2,457 |
Apr 2012 | 133,841 | 2,467 |
May 2012 | 133,958 | 2,484 |
Jun 2012 | 134,026 | 2,509 |
Jul 2012 | 134,182 | 2,523 |
Aug 2012 | 134,355 | 2,524 |
Sep 2012 | 134,549 | 2,506 |
Oct 2012 | 134,702 | 2,522 |
Nov 2012 | 134,832 | 2,529 |
Dec 2012 | 135,075 | 2,533 |
Jan 2013 | 135,282 | 2,544 |
Feb 2013 | 135,547 | 2,562 |
Mar 2013 | 135,703 | 2,582 |
Apr 2013 | 135,882 | 2,598 |
May 2013 | 136,122 | 2,615 |
Jun 2013 | 136,280 | 2,625 |
Jul 2013 | 136,391 | 2,634 |
Aug 2013 | 136,651 | 2,641 |
Sep 2013 | 136,852 | 2,656 |
Oct 2013 | 137,062 | 2,646 |
Nov 2013 | 137,283 | 2,646 |
Dec 2013 | 137,376 | 2,669 |
Jan 2014 | 137,550 | 2,678 |
Feb 2014 | 137,732 | 2,702 |
Mar 2014 | 137,993 | 2,716 |
Apr 2014 | 138,304 | 2,727 |
May 2014 | 138,556 | 2,740 |
Jun 2014 | 138,862 | 2,753 |
Jul 2014 | 139,058 | 2,766 |
Aug 2014 | 139,284 | 2,788 |
Sep 2014 | 139,568 | 2,803 |
Oct 2014 | 139,823 | 2,803 |
Nov 2014 | 140,130 | 2,821 |
Dec 2014 | 140,381 | 2,835 |
Jan 2015 | 140,592 | 2,834 |
Feb 2015 | 140,859 | 2,833 |
Mar 2015 | 140,937 | 2,841 |
Apr 2015 | 141,219 | 2,852 |
May 2015 | 141,545 | 2,868 |
Jun 2015 | 141,736 | 2,887 |
Jul 2015 | 141,992 | 2,882 |
Aug 2015 | 142,156 | 2,885 |
Sep 2015 | 142,244 | 2,878 |
Oct 2015 | 142,595 | 2,897 |
Nov 2015 | 142,859 | 2,904 |
Dec 2015 | 143,093 | 2,934 |
Jan 2016 | 143,196 | 2,883 |
Feb 2016 | 143,453 | 2,879 |
Mar 2016 | 143,688 | 2,883 |
Apr 2016 | 143,862 | 2,885 |
May 2016 | 143,896 | 2,856 |
Jun 2016 | 144,181 | 2,869 |
Jul 2016 | 144,506 | 2,877 |
Aug 2016 | 144,681 | 2,871 |
Sep 2016 | 144,945 | 2,907 |
Oct 2016 | 145,085 | 2,904 |
Nov 2016 | 145,257 | 2,921 |
Dec 2016 | 145,437 | 2,902 |
Jan 2017 | 145,696 | 2,902 |
Feb 2017 | 145,896 | 2,901 |
Mar 2017 | 145,969 | 2,907 |
Apr 2017 | 146,144 | 2,913 |
May 2017 | 146,299 | 2,930 |
Jun 2017 | 146,538 | 2,943 |
Jul 2017 | 146,728 | 2,956 |
Aug 2017 | 146,949 | 2,962 |
Sep 2017 | 146,963 | 2,972 |
Oct 2017 | 147,234 | 2,992 |
Nov 2017 | 147,450 | 2,999 |
Dec 2017 | 147,625 | 2,998 |
Jan 2018 | 147,801 | 2,996 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
Transportation and warehousing is composed of industries that offer the following services: transport of cargo and passengers, warehousing and storage for goods, and support activities for varying carriage modes (e.g., air, rail, water, truck).[25] Employment in transportation and warehousing peaked in April 2008, 3 months after the peak in total nonfarm employment, and troughed in December 2009, shedding 443,000 jobs in the interim. Nonetheless, the industry fully recuperated its lost jobs by January 2014 and then expanded by an additional 682,000 jobs through January 2018.
Employment in leisure and hospitality peaked in December 2007, only a month before total nonfarm employment, and troughed in February 2010, concurrently with payroll employment. In that span, the industry shed 623,000 jobs. Employment in leisure and hospitality is affected by several factors, including gasoline prices, disposable income, food prices, and home prices. For example, low gasoline prices between 2014 and 2016 benefitted hotels, restaurants, and amusement parks, as Americans drove a record 3.2 trillion miles in 2016.[26] Moreover, changes in real disposable income affect consumer spending on goods and services. Consumption remained below the industry’s prerecession level 15 quarters after the onset of the most recent recession, longer than the previous five recessions.[27] As a result, it took 49 months for leisure and hospitality employment to exceed its December 2007 peak. After recovering in January 2012, employment in the industry saw robust gains, to the tune of 2.6 million jobs through January 2018.
Employment in education and health services has been resilient to market vicissitudes. This resilience is due, in part, to the inelastic nature of healthcare component industries (demand for healthcare has been found to be robust regardless of price changes).[28] No matter the business cycle, over-the-year employment changes in education and health services have been positive since 1945. (See figure 10.)
Period | Employment |
---|---|
Jan 1945 | 1,659 |
Feb 1945 | 1,667 |
Mar 1945 | 1,666 |
Apr 1945 | 1,666 |
May 1945 | 1,666 |
Jun 1945 | 1,681 |
Jul 1945 | 1,692 |
Aug 1945 | 1,706 |
Sep 1945 | 1,711 |
Oct 1945 | 1,733 |
Nov 1945 | 1,753 |
Dec 1945 | 1,773 |
Jan 1946 | 1,797 |
Feb 1946 | 1,819 |
Mar 1946 | 1,839 |
Apr 1946 | 1,857 |
May 1946 | 1,869 |
Jun 1946 | 1,880 |
Jul 1946 | 1,886 |
Aug 1946 | 1,904 |
Sep 1946 | 1,932 |
Oct 1946 | 1,933 |
Nov 1946 | 1,945 |
Dec 1946 | 1,956 |
Jan 1947 | 1,976 |
Feb 1947 | 1,986 |
Mar 1947 | 1,992 |
Apr 1947 | 1,997 |
May 1947 | 2,005 |
Jun 1947 | 2,013 |
Jul 1947 | 2,020 |
Aug 1947 | 2,024 |
Sep 1947 | 2,030 |
Oct 1947 | 2,039 |
Nov 1947 | 2,044 |
Dec 1947 | 2,049 |
Jan 1948 | 2,047 |
Feb 1948 | 2,051 |
Mar 1948 | 2,058 |
Apr 1948 | 2,069 |
May 1948 | 2,074 |
Jun 1948 | 2,082 |
Jul 1948 | 2,084 |
Aug 1948 | 2,088 |
Sep 1948 | 2,090 |
Oct 1948 | 2,087 |
Nov 1948 | 2,088 |
Dec 1948 | 2,096 |
Jan 1949 | 2,080 |
Feb 1949 | 2,088 |
Mar 1949 | 2,083 |
Apr 1949 | 2,092 |
May 1949 | 2,097 |
Jun 1949 | 2,095 |
Jul 1949 | 2,098 |
Aug 1949 | 2,098 |
Sep 1949 | 2,104 |
Oct 1949 | 2,106 |
Nov 1949 | 2,109 |
Dec 1949 | 2,113 |
Jan 1950 | 2,105 |
Feb 1950 | 2,114 |
Mar 1950 | 2,113 |
Apr 1950 | 2,127 |
May 1950 | 2,135 |
Jun 1950 | 2,143 |
Jul 1950 | 2,150 |
Aug 1950 | 2,159 |
Sep 1950 | 2,161 |
Oct 1950 | 2,166 |
Nov 1950 | 2,171 |
Dec 1950 | 2,178 |
Jan 1951 | 2,187 |
Feb 1951 | 2,195 |
Mar 1951 | 2,204 |
Apr 1951 | 2,208 |
May 1951 | 2,212 |
Jun 1951 | 2,219 |
Jul 1951 | 2,226 |
Aug 1951 | 2,235 |
Sep 1951 | 2,233 |
Oct 1951 | 2,238 |
Nov 1951 | 2,244 |
Dec 1951 | 2,248 |
Jan 1952 | 2,257 |
Feb 1952 | 2,267 |
Mar 1952 | 2,266 |
Apr 1952 | 2,270 |
May 1952 | 2,277 |
Jun 1952 | 2,277 |
Jul 1952 | 2,280 |
Aug 1952 | 2,286 |
Sep 1952 | 2,289 |
Oct 1952 | 2,292 |
Nov 1952 | 2,297 |
Dec 1952 | 2,306 |
Jan 1953 | 2,300 |
Feb 1953 | 2,309 |
Mar 1953 | 2,316 |
Apr 1953 | 2,322 |
May 1953 | 2,327 |
Jun 1953 | 2,335 |
Jul 1953 | 2,339 |
Aug 1953 | 2,344 |
Sep 1953 | 2,355 |
Oct 1953 | 2,354 |
Nov 1953 | 2,356 |
Dec 1953 | 2,357 |
Jan 1954 | 2,354 |
Feb 1954 | 2,358 |
Mar 1954 | 2,360 |
Apr 1954 | 2,366 |
May 1954 | 2,372 |
Jun 1954 | 2,380 |
Jul 1954 | 2,393 |
Aug 1954 | 2,397 |
Sep 1954 | 2,411 |
Oct 1954 | 2,404 |
Nov 1954 | 2,409 |
Dec 1954 | 2,417 |
Jan 1955 | 2,428 |
Feb 1955 | 2,435 |
Mar 1955 | 2,444 |
Apr 1955 | 2,458 |
May 1955 | 2,467 |
Jun 1955 | 2,478 |
Jul 1955 | 2,496 |
Aug 1955 | 2,509 |
Sep 1955 | 2,525 |
Oct 1955 | 2,541 |
Nov 1955 | 2,554 |
Dec 1955 | 2,563 |
Jan 1956 | 2,572 |
Feb 1956 | 2,583 |
Mar 1956 | 2,591 |
Apr 1956 | 2,592 |
May 1956 | 2,591 |
Jun 1956 | 2,592 |
Jul 1956 | 2,578 |
Aug 1956 | 2,579 |
Sep 1956 | 2,595 |
Oct 1956 | 2,607 |
Nov 1956 | 2,617 |
Dec 1956 | 2,625 |
Jan 1957 | 2,639 |
Feb 1957 | 2,652 |
Mar 1957 | 2,656 |
Apr 1957 | 2,662 |
May 1957 | 2,675 |
Jun 1957 | 2,680 |
Jul 1957 | 2,686 |
Aug 1957 | 2,685 |
Sep 1957 | 2,696 |
Oct 1957 | 2,695 |
Nov 1957 | 2,696 |
Dec 1957 | 2,690 |
Jan 1958 | 2,681 |
Feb 1958 | 2,676 |
Mar 1958 | 2,676 |
Apr 1958 | 2,676 |
May 1958 | 2,678 |
Jun 1958 | 2,681 |
Jul 1958 | 2,689 |
Aug 1958 | 2,698 |
Sep 1958 | 2,708 |
Oct 1958 | 2,720 |
Nov 1958 | 2,724 |
Dec 1958 | 2,741 |
Jan 1959 | 2,765 |
Feb 1959 | 2,778 |
Mar 1959 | 2,789 |
Apr 1959 | 2,804 |
May 1959 | 2,814 |
Jun 1959 | 2,822 |
Jul 1959 | 2,824 |
Aug 1959 | 2,827 |
Sep 1959 | 2,842 |
Oct 1959 | 2,854 |
Nov 1959 | 2,865 |
Dec 1959 | 2,880 |
Jan 1960 | 2,893 |
Feb 1960 | 2,907 |
Mar 1960 | 2,907 |
Apr 1960 | 2,919 |
May 1960 | 2,928 |
Jun 1960 | 2,938 |
Jul 1960 | 2,947 |
Aug 1960 | 2,949 |
Sep 1960 | 2,948 |
Oct 1960 | 2,960 |
Nov 1960 | 2,968 |
Dec 1960 | 2,972 |
Jan 1961 | 2,980 |
Feb 1961 | 2,985 |
Mar 1961 | 2,995 |
Apr 1961 | 2,999 |
May 1961 | 3,003 |
Jun 1961 | 3,016 |
Jul 1961 | 3,029 |
Aug 1961 | 3,043 |
Sep 1961 | 3,059 |
Oct 1961 | 3,069 |
Nov 1961 | 3,082 |
Dec 1961 | 3,097 |
Jan 1962 | 3,108 |
Feb 1962 | 3,121 |
Mar 1962 | 3,132 |
Apr 1962 | 3,146 |
May 1962 | 3,161 |
Jun 1962 | 3,173 |
Jul 1962 | 3,183 |
Aug 1962 | 3,194 |
Sep 1962 | 3,202 |
Oct 1962 | 3,209 |
Nov 1962 | 3,215 |
Dec 1962 | 3,223 |
Jan 1963 | 3,228 |
Feb 1963 | 3,234 |
Mar 1963 | 3,249 |
Apr 1963 | 3,259 |
May 1963 | 3,266 |
Jun 1963 | 3,280 |
Jul 1963 | 3,289 |
Aug 1963 | 3,303 |
Sep 1963 | 3,315 |
Oct 1963 | 3,337 |
Nov 1963 | 3,342 |
Dec 1963 | 3,352 |
Jan 1964 | 3,371 |
Feb 1964 | 3,384 |
Mar 1964 | 3,388 |
Apr 1964 | 3,406 |
May 1964 | 3,421 |
Jun 1964 | 3,433 |
Jul 1964 | 3,450 |
Aug 1964 | 3,457 |
Sep 1964 | 3,477 |
Oct 1964 | 3,484 |
Nov 1964 | 3,490 |
Dec 1964 | 3,499 |
Jan 1965 | 3,511 |
Feb 1965 | 3,524 |
Mar 1965 | 3,536 |
Apr 1965 | 3,554 |
May 1965 | 3,569 |
Jun 1965 | 3,579 |
Jul 1965 | 3,599 |
Aug 1965 | 3,608 |
Sep 1965 | 3,622 |
Oct 1965 | 3,633 |
Nov 1965 | 3,646 |
Dec 1965 | 3,665 |
Jan 1966 | 3,679 |
Feb 1966 | 3,695 |
Mar 1966 | 3,711 |
Apr 1966 | 3,726 |
May 1966 | 3,742 |
Jun 1966 | 3,763 |
Jul 1966 | 3,781 |
Aug 1966 | 3,797 |
Sep 1966 | 3,809 |
Oct 1966 | 3,828 |
Nov 1966 | 3,845 |
Dec 1966 | 3,863 |
Jan 1967 | 3,883 |
Feb 1967 | 3,899 |
Mar 1967 | 3,919 |
Apr 1967 | 3,939 |
May 1967 | 3,957 |
Jun 1967 | 3,975 |
Jul 1967 | 3,997 |
Aug 1967 | 4,015 |
Sep 1967 | 4,036 |
Oct 1967 | 4,046 |
Nov 1967 | 4,074 |
Dec 1967 | 4,090 |
Jan 1968 | 4,100 |
Feb 1968 | 4,120 |
Mar 1968 | 4,126 |
Apr 1968 | 4,136 |
May 1968 | 4,154 |
Jun 1968 | 4,179 |
Jul 1968 | 4,196 |
Aug 1968 | 4,216 |
Sep 1968 | 4,221 |
Oct 1968 | 4,253 |
Nov 1968 | 4,283 |
Dec 1968 | 4,305 |
Jan 1969 | 4,326 |
Feb 1969 | 4,348 |
Mar 1969 | 4,373 |
Apr 1969 | 4,391 |
May 1969 | 4,408 |
Jun 1969 | 4,422 |
Jul 1969 | 4,441 |
Aug 1969 | 4,458 |
Sep 1969 | 4,463 |
Oct 1969 | 4,493 |
Nov 1969 | 4,500 |
Dec 1969 | 4,517 |
Jan 1970 | 4,531 |
Feb 1970 | 4,552 |
Mar 1970 | 4,556 |
Apr 1970 | 4,567 |
May 1970 | 4,579 |
Jun 1970 | 4,574 |
Jul 1970 | 4,567 |
Aug 1970 | 4,559 |
Sep 1970 | 4,593 |
Oct 1970 | 4,610 |
Nov 1970 | 4,619 |
Dec 1970 | 4,623 |
Jan 1971 | 4,632 |
Feb 1971 | 4,632 |
Mar 1971 | 4,642 |
Apr 1971 | 4,647 |
May 1971 | 4,658 |
Jun 1971 | 4,671 |
Jul 1971 | 4,677 |
Aug 1971 | 4,672 |
Sep 1971 | 4,695 |
Oct 1971 | 4,706 |
Nov 1971 | 4,722 |
Dec 1971 | 4,736 |
Jan 1972 | 4,749 |
Feb 1972 | 4,764 |
Mar 1972 | 4,781 |
Apr 1972 | 4,806 |
May 1972 | 4,833 |
Jun 1972 | 4,884 |
Jul 1972 | 4,879 |
Aug 1972 | 4,900 |
Sep 1972 | 4,894 |
Oct 1972 | 4,930 |
Nov 1972 | 4,952 |
Dec 1972 | 4,975 |
Jan 1973 | 5,003 |
Feb 1973 | 5,025 |
Mar 1973 | 5,042 |
Apr 1973 | 5,052 |
May 1973 | 5,060 |
Jun 1973 | 5,069 |
Jul 1973 | 5,058 |
Aug 1973 | 5,104 |
Sep 1973 | 5,139 |
Oct 1973 | 5,158 |
Nov 1973 | 5,189 |
Dec 1973 | 5,201 |
Jan 1974 | 5,217 |
Feb 1974 | 5,242 |
Mar 1974 | 5,259 |
Apr 1974 | 5,262 |
May 1974 | 5,304 |
Jun 1974 | 5,323 |
Jul 1974 | 5,349 |
Aug 1974 | 5,356 |
Sep 1974 | 5,365 |
Oct 1974 | 5,387 |
Nov 1974 | 5,394 |
Dec 1974 | 5,401 |
Jan 1975 | 5,404 |
Feb 1975 | 5,421 |
Mar 1975 | 5,430 |
Apr 1975 | 5,435 |
May 1975 | 5,468 |
Jun 1975 | 5,458 |
Jul 1975 | 5,515 |
Aug 1975 | 5,546 |
Sep 1975 | 5,540 |
Oct 1975 | 5,562 |
Nov 1975 | 5,578 |
Dec 1975 | 5,602 |
Jan 1976 | 5,635 |
Feb 1976 | 5,657 |
Mar 1976 | 5,687 |
Apr 1976 | 5,709 |
May 1976 | 5,730 |
Jun 1976 | 5,751 |
Jul 1976 | 5,780 |
Aug 1976 | 5,789 |
Sep 1976 | 5,801 |
Oct 1976 | 5,819 |
Nov 1976 | 5,843 |
Dec 1976 | 5,868 |
Jan 1977 | 5,892 |
Feb 1977 | 5,914 |
Mar 1977 | 5,941 |
Apr 1977 | 5,965 |
May 1977 | 5,992 |
Jun 1977 | 6,023 |
Jul 1977 | 6,060 |
Aug 1977 | 6,094 |
Sep 1977 | 6,139 |
Oct 1977 | 6,171 |
Nov 1977 | 6,204 |
Dec 1977 | 6,229 |
Jan 1978 | 6,228 |
Feb 1978 | 6,266 |
Mar 1978 | 6,308 |
Apr 1978 | 6,353 |
May 1978 | 6,387 |
Jun 1978 | 6,421 |
Jul 1978 | 6,455 |
Aug 1978 | 6,498 |
Sep 1978 | 6,514 |
Oct 1978 | 6,525 |
Nov 1978 | 6,567 |
Dec 1978 | 6,597 |
Jan 1979 | 6,603 |
Feb 1979 | 6,645 |
Mar 1979 | 6,683 |
Apr 1979 | 6,702 |
May 1979 | 6,738 |
Jun 1979 | 6,770 |
Jul 1979 | 6,784 |
Aug 1979 | 6,812 |
Sep 1979 | 6,830 |
Oct 1979 | 6,858 |
Nov 1979 | 6,879 |
Dec 1979 | 6,908 |
Jan 1980 | 6,942 |
Feb 1980 | 6,975 |
Mar 1980 | 7,002 |
Apr 1980 | 7,020 |
May 1980 | 7,034 |
Jun 1980 | 7,048 |
Jul 1980 | 7,077 |
Aug 1980 | 7,104 |
Sep 1980 | 7,134 |
Oct 1980 | 7,159 |
Nov 1980 | 7,194 |
Dec 1980 | 7,227 |
Jan 1981 | 7,254 |
Feb 1981 | 7,273 |
Mar 1981 | 7,285 |
Apr 1981 | 7,313 |
May 1981 | 7,331 |
Jun 1981 | 7,352 |
Jul 1981 | 7,371 |
Aug 1981 | 7,393 |
Sep 1981 | 7,417 |
Oct 1981 | 7,446 |
Nov 1981 | 7,459 |
Dec 1981 | 7,471 |
Jan 1982 | 7,490 |
Feb 1982 | 7,497 |
Mar 1982 | 7,502 |
Apr 1982 | 7,501 |
May 1982 | 7,513 |
Jun 1982 | 7,519 |
Jul 1982 | 7,530 |
Aug 1982 | 7,536 |
Sep 1982 | 7,537 |
Oct 1982 | 7,545 |
Nov 1982 | 7,565 |
Dec 1982 | 7,576 |
Jan 1983 | 7,594 |
Feb 1983 | 7,601 |
Mar 1983 | 7,648 |
Apr 1983 | 7,689 |
May 1983 | 7,715 |
Jun 1983 | 7,766 |
Jul 1983 | 7,810 |
Aug 1983 | 7,847 |
Sep 1983 | 7,883 |
Oct 1983 | 7,906 |
Nov 1983 | 7,933 |
Dec 1983 | 7,973 |
Jan 1984 | 8,001 |
Feb 1984 | 8,046 |
Mar 1984 | 8,080 |
Apr 1984 | 8,121 |
May 1984 | 8,162 |
Jun 1984 | 8,200 |
Jul 1984 | 8,226 |
Aug 1984 | 8,254 |
Sep 1984 | 8,303 |
Oct 1984 | 8,343 |
Nov 1984 | 8,380 |
Dec 1984 | 8,413 |
Jan 1985 | 8,464 |
Feb 1985 | 8,499 |
Mar 1985 | 8,544 |
Apr 1985 | 8,574 |
May 1985 | 8,620 |
Jun 1985 | 8,652 |
Jul 1985 | 8,686 |
Aug 1985 | 8,748 |
Sep 1985 | 8,778 |
Oct 1985 | 8,819 |
Nov 1985 | 8,864 |
Dec 1985 | 8,894 |
Jan 1986 | 8,912 |
Feb 1986 | 8,936 |
Mar 1986 | 8,965 |
Apr 1986 | 9,002 |
May 1986 | 9,032 |
Jun 1986 | 9,061 |
Jul 1986 | 9,111 |
Aug 1986 | 9,160 |
Sep 1986 | 9,164 |
Oct 1986 | 9,202 |
Nov 1986 | 9,232 |
Dec 1986 | 9,268 |
Jan 1987 | 9,312 |
Feb 1987 | 9,338 |
Mar 1987 | 9,383 |
Apr 1987 | 9,431 |
May 1987 | 9,484 |
Jun 1987 | 9,520 |
Jul 1987 | 9,602 |
Aug 1987 | 9,670 |
Sep 1987 | 9,643 |
Oct 1987 | 9,686 |
Nov 1987 | 9,711 |
Dec 1987 | 9,752 |
Jan 1988 | 9,793 |
Feb 1988 | 9,838 |
Mar 1988 | 9,883 |
Apr 1988 | 9,938 |
May 1988 | 9,996 |
Jun 1988 | 10,095 |
Jul 1988 | 10,181 |
Aug 1988 | 10,263 |
Sep 1988 | 10,242 |
Oct 1988 | 10,273 |
Nov 1988 | 10,310 |
Dec 1988 | 10,359 |
Jan 1989 | 10,383 |
Feb 1989 | 10,411 |
Mar 1989 | 10,468 |
Apr 1989 | 10,536 |
May 1989 | 10,590 |
Jun 1989 | 10,706 |
Jul 1989 | 10,764 |
Aug 1989 | 10,834 |
Sep 1989 | 10,786 |
Oct 1989 | 10,766 |
Nov 1989 | 10,792 |
Dec 1989 | 10,814 |
Jan 1990 | 10,778 |
Feb 1990 | 10,818 |
Mar 1990 | 10,866 |
Apr 1990 | 10,893 |
May 1990 | 10,956 |
Jun 1990 | 11,018 |
Jul 1990 | 11,054 |
Aug 1990 | 11,099 |
Sep 1990 | 11,137 |
Oct 1990 | 11,177 |
Nov 1990 | 11,220 |
Dec 1990 | 11,271 |
Jan 1991 | 11,343 |
Feb 1991 | 11,375 |
Mar 1991 | 11,425 |
Apr 1991 | 11,464 |
May 1991 | 11,492 |
Jun 1991 | 11,538 |
Jul 1991 | 11,573 |
Aug 1991 | 11,616 |
Sep 1991 | 11,658 |
Oct 1991 | 11,700 |
Nov 1991 | 11,727 |
Dec 1991 | 11,764 |
Jan 1992 | 11,803 |
Feb 1992 | 11,825 |
Mar 1992 | 11,841 |
Apr 1992 | 11,869 |
May 1992 | 11,883 |
Jun 1992 | 11,929 |
Jul 1992 | 11,973 |
Aug 1992 | 11,996 |
Sep 1992 | 12,013 |
Oct 1992 | 12,046 |
Nov 1992 | 12,076 |
Dec 1992 | 12,109 |
Jan 1993 | 12,144 |
Feb 1993 | 12,176 |
Mar 1993 | 12,191 |
Apr 1993 | 12,244 |
May 1993 | 12,297 |
Jun 1993 | 12,346 |
Jul 1993 | 12,399 |
Aug 1993 | 12,446 |
Sep 1993 | 12,465 |
Oct 1993 | 12,499 |
Nov 1993 | 12,540 |
Dec 1993 | 12,585 |
Jan 1994 | 12,625 |
Feb 1994 | 12,644 |
Mar 1994 | 12,694 |
Apr 1994 | 12,743 |
May 1994 | 12,795 |
Jun 1994 | 12,850 |
Jul 1994 | 12,918 |
Aug 1994 | 12,956 |
Sep 1994 | 12,994 |
Oct 1994 | 13,032 |
Nov 1994 | 13,076 |
Dec 1994 | 13,129 |
Jan 1995 | 13,166 |
Feb 1995 | 13,213 |
Mar 1995 | 13,255 |
Apr 1995 | 13,285 |
May 1995 | 13,309 |
Jun 1995 | 13,343 |
Jul 1995 | 13,359 |
Aug 1995 | 13,401 |
Sep 1995 | 13,445 |
Oct 1995 | 13,477 |
Nov 1995 | 13,509 |
Dec 1995 | 13,547 |
Jan 1996 | 13,550 |
Feb 1996 | 13,602 |
Mar 1996 | 13,645 |
Apr 1996 | 13,678 |
May 1996 | 13,715 |
Jun 1996 | 13,751 |
Jul 1996 | 13,795 |
Aug 1996 | 13,807 |
Sep 1996 | 13,837 |
Oct 1996 | 13,887 |
Nov 1996 | 13,929 |
Dec 1996 | 13,951 |
Jan 1997 | 13,998 |
Feb 1997 | 14,025 |
Mar 1997 | 14,053 |
Apr 1997 | 14,103 |
May 1997 | 14,142 |
Jun 1997 | 14,168 |
Jul 1997 | 14,230 |
Aug 1997 | 14,234 |
Sep 1997 | 14,272 |
Oct 1997 | 14,305 |
Nov 1997 | 14,329 |
Dec 1997 | 14,366 |
Jan 1998 | 14,392 |
Feb 1998 | 14,416 |
Mar 1998 | 14,438 |
Apr 1998 | 14,466 |
May 1998 | 14,509 |
Jun 1998 | 14,553 |
Jul 1998 | 14,611 |
Aug 1998 | 14,593 |
Sep 1998 | 14,649 |
Oct 1998 | 14,696 |
Nov 1998 | 14,727 |
Dec 1998 | 14,762 |
Jan 1999 | 14,779 |
Feb 1999 | 14,832 |
Mar 1999 | 14,857 |
Apr 1999 | 14,888 |
May 1999 | 14,898 |
Jun 1999 | 14,928 |
Jul 1999 | 14,955 |
Aug 1999 | 14,958 |
Sep 1999 | 14,988 |
Oct 1999 | 15,025 |
Nov 1999 | 15,057 |
Dec 1999 | 15,080 |
Jan 2000 | 15,099 |
Feb 2000 | 15,112 |
Mar 2000 | 15,141 |
Apr 2000 | 15,161 |
May 2000 | 15,188 |
Jun 2000 | 15,214 |
Jul 2000 | 15,244 |
Aug 2000 | 15,281 |
Sep 2000 | 15,353 |
Oct 2000 | 15,360 |
Nov 2000 | 15,410 |
Dec 2000 | 15,465 |
Jan 2001 | 15,516 |
Feb 2001 | 15,573 |
Mar 2001 | 15,629 |
Apr 2001 | 15,671 |
May 2001 | 15,747 |
Jun 2001 | 15,779 |
Jul 2001 | 15,840 |
Aug 2001 | 15,903 |
Sep 2001 | 15,959 |
Oct 2001 | 15,999 |
Nov 2001 | 16,044 |
Dec 2001 | 16,097 |
Jan 2002 | 16,150 |
Feb 2002 | 16,199 |
Mar 2002 | 16,240 |
Apr 2002 | 16,281 |
May 2002 | 16,328 |
Jun 2002 | 16,422 |
Jul 2002 | 16,466 |
Aug 2002 | 16,489 |
Sep 2002 | 16,509 |
Oct 2002 | 16,541 |
Nov 2002 | 16,587 |
Dec 2002 | 16,606 |
Jan 2003 | 16,656 |
Feb 2003 | 16,696 |
Mar 2003 | 16,720 |
Apr 2003 | 16,784 |
May 2003 | 16,825 |
Jun 2003 | 16,836 |
Jul 2003 | 16,842 |
Aug 2003 | 16,851 |
Sep 2003 | 16,883 |
Oct 2003 | 16,942 |
Nov 2003 | 16,978 |
Dec 2003 | 17,016 |
Jan 2004 | 17,048 |
Feb 2004 | 17,066 |
Mar 2004 | 17,115 |
Apr 2004 | 17,150 |
May 2004 | 17,185 |
Jun 2004 | 17,200 |
Jul 2004 | 17,234 |
Aug 2004 | 17,270 |
Sep 2004 | 17,261 |
Oct 2004 | 17,364 |
Nov 2004 | 17,391 |
Dec 2004 | 17,436 |
Jan 2005 | 17,470 |
Feb 2005 | 17,480 |
Mar 2005 | 17,506 |
Apr 2005 | 17,544 |
May 2005 | 17,605 |
Jun 2005 | 17,662 |
Jul 2005 | 17,716 |
Aug 2005 | 17,750 |
Sep 2005 | 17,789 |
Oct 2005 | 17,812 |
Nov 2005 | 17,864 |
Dec 2005 | 17,894 |
Jan 2006 | 17,946 |
Feb 2006 | 17,998 |
Mar 2006 | 18,045 |
Apr 2006 | 18,070 |
May 2006 | 18,100 |
Jun 2006 | 18,102 |
Jul 2006 | 18,128 |
Aug 2006 | 18,182 |
Sep 2006 | 18,248 |
Oct 2006 | 18,288 |
Nov 2006 | 18,337 |
Dec 2006 | 18,378 |
Jan 2007 | 18,415 |
Feb 2007 | 18,451 |
Mar 2007 | 18,507 |
Apr 2007 | 18,563 |
May 2007 | 18,608 |
Jun 2007 | 18,661 |
Jul 2007 | 18,691 |
Aug 2007 | 18,755 |
Sep 2007 | 18,812 |
Oct 2007 | 18,849 |
Nov 2007 | 18,875 |
Dec 2007 | 18,924 |
Jan 2008 | 18,978 |
Feb 2008 | 19,018 |
Mar 2008 | 19,068 |
Apr 2008 | 19,126 |
May 2008 | 19,166 |
Jun 2008 | 19,224 |
Jul 2008 | 19,275 |
Aug 2008 | 19,337 |
Sep 2008 | 19,343 |
Oct 2008 | 19,363 |
Nov 2008 | 19,401 |
Dec 2008 | 19,442 |
Jan 2009 | 19,482 |
Feb 2009 | 19,507 |
Mar 2009 | 19,514 |
Apr 2009 | 19,521 |
May 2009 | 19,582 |
Jun 2009 | 19,614 |
Jul 2009 | 19,629 |
Aug 2009 | 19,681 |
Sep 2009 | 19,692 |
Oct 2009 | 19,736 |
Nov 2009 | 19,770 |
Dec 2009 | 19,804 |
Jan 2010 | 19,820 |
Feb 2010 | 19,839 |
Mar 2010 | 19,896 |
Apr 2010 | 19,902 |
May 2010 | 19,934 |
Jun 2010 | 19,955 |
Jul 2010 | 19,980 |
Aug 2010 | 20,017 |
Sep 2010 | 20,001 |
Oct 2010 | 20,074 |
Nov 2010 | 20,119 |
Dec 2010 | 20,134 |
Jan 2011 | 20,153 |
Feb 2011 | 20,163 |
Mar 2011 | 20,177 |
Apr 2011 | 20,237 |
May 2011 | 20,252 |
Jun 2011 | 20,288 |
Jul 2011 | 20,327 |
Aug 2011 | 20,367 |
Sep 2011 | 20,415 |
Oct 2011 | 20,457 |
Nov 2011 | 20,496 |
Dec 2011 | 20,530 |
Jan 2012 | 20,574 |
Feb 2012 | 20,657 |
Mar 2012 | 20,689 |
Apr 2012 | 20,707 |
May 2012 | 20,747 |
Jun 2012 | 20,738 |
Jul 2012 | 20,773 |
Aug 2012 | 20,801 |
Sep 2012 | 20,841 |
Oct 2012 | 20,881 |
Nov 2012 | 20,887 |
Dec 2012 | 20,935 |
Jan 2013 | 20,956 |
Feb 2013 | 20,958 |
Mar 2013 | 21,007 |
Apr 2013 | 21,054 |
May 2013 | 21,071 |
Jun 2013 | 21,070 |
Jul 2013 | 21,074 |
Aug 2013 | 21,143 |
Sep 2013 | 21,133 |
Oct 2013 | 21,158 |
Nov 2013 | 21,194 |
Dec 2013 | 21,196 |
Jan 2014 | 21,225 |
Feb 2014 | 21,246 |
Mar 2014 | 21,292 |
Apr 2014 | 21,314 |
May 2014 | 21,370 |
Jun 2014 | 21,416 |
Jul 2014 | 21,449 |
Aug 2014 | 21,499 |
Sep 2014 | 21,540 |
Oct 2014 | 21,575 |
Nov 2014 | 21,625 |
Dec 2014 | 21,676 |
Jan 2015 | 21,741 |
Feb 2015 | 21,787 |
Mar 2015 | 21,829 |
Apr 2015 | 21,905 |
May 2015 | 21,952 |
Jun 2015 | 22,002 |
Jul 2015 | 22,051 |
Aug 2015 | 22,093 |
Sep 2015 | 22,138 |
Oct 2015 | 22,217 |
Nov 2015 | 22,263 |
Dec 2015 | 22,318 |
Jan 2016 | 22,339 |
Feb 2016 | 22,403 |
Mar 2016 | 22,447 |
Apr 2016 | 22,503 |
May 2016 | 22,556 |
Jun 2016 | 22,633 |
Jul 2016 | 22,669 |
Aug 2016 | 22,723 |
Sep 2016 | 22,777 |
Oct 2016 | 22,829 |
Nov 2016 | 22,865 |
Dec 2016 | 22,922 |
Jan 2017 | 22,957 |
Feb 2017 | 23,017 |
Mar 2017 | 23,040 |
Apr 2017 | 23,086 |
May 2017 | 23,122 |
Jun 2017 | 23,178 |
Jul 2017 | 23,235 |
Aug 2017 | 23,283 |
Sep 2017 | 23,297 |
Oct 2017 | 23,312 |
Nov 2017 | 23,350 |
Dec 2017 | 23,380 |
Jan 2018 | 23,430 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey. |
In other words, the industry has been the least cyclical within total nonfarm employment. In fact, its job growth has averaged 3.3 percent during the last five recessions. Since 1990, most of the industry’s growth has been concentrated in healthcare. Over the most recent downturn in total nonfarm employment (January 2008–February 2010), the sector added 861,000 jobs, with healthcare accounting for 64 percent of the gains.
Ten years after reaching a peak, total nonfarm employment has not only recovered from its pronounced downturn, but expanded by an additional 9.2 million jobs. Several industries—manufacturing, information, construction, mining and logging, and government—have yet to recover. Other industries—financial activities, retail trade, other services, transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality—have recovered and expanded. As of January 2018, total nonfarm employment had recorded 88 consecutive months of growth, marking the longest recovery and expansionary streak in CES history.
Wander Cedeño, "How did employment fare a decade after its 2008 peak?," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2018, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2018.25
1 The CES program, which provides detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls, is a monthly survey of about 149,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 651,000 individual worksites. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, see “Technical notes for the Current Employment Statistics survey,” Current Employment Statistics—CES (national) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2, 2018), https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm. To access CES data, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/. CES data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Over-the-year changes are calculated from December of the previous year through December of the reference year.
2 For more information on the CES benchmark and seasonal adjustment, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/tables/#benchmark and https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section6e.
3 See “U.S. business cycle expansions and contractions” (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research), http://www.nber.org/cycles.html.
4 The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program identifies key turning points in seasonally adjusted CES time series as peaks and troughs. These key turning points are those which mark the beginning of sustained periods of growth or contraction in the time series. These changes in trend are distinct from month-to-month or other short-term fluctuations. For more information on CES employment peaks and troughs, see “CES peak–trough tables,” Current Employment Statistics—CES (national) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 10, 2012), https://www.bls.gov/ces/tables/peak-trough.htm.
5 Total nonfarm employment had 95 consecutive positive over-the-month changes through August 2018.
6 The current CES monthly total nonfarm payroll employment series goes back to January 1939.
7 Drew Desilver, “Most Americans unaware that as U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared, output has grown” (Washington, DC: Pew Research Center, July 25, 2017), http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/25/most-americans-unaware-that-as-u-s-manufacturing-jobs-have-disappeared-output-has-grown/.
8 Robert E. Scott, “Manufacturing job loss: trade, not productivity, is the culprit,” Issue Brief 402 (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute, August 11, 2015), https://www.epi.org/publication/manufacturing-job-loss-trade-not-productivity-is-the-culprit/.
9 The CES 1-month diffusion index for manufacturing measures the dispersion of employment change across industries over the month. The overall index is calculated from 76 seasonally adjusted employment series (primarily four-digit NAICS industries). In the calculation, each component industry is assigned a value of 0 percent, 50 percent, or 100 percent, depending on whether its employment showed a decrease, no change, or an increase, respectively, over the month. The average value (mean) is then calculated, and this percentage is the diffusion-index number.
10 “Cushing, OK, WTI spot price FOB,” Petroleum and other liquids (U.S. Energy Information Administration), https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcD.htm.
11 Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, “The shale gas and tight oil boom” (New York and Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations, October 15, 2013), https://www.cfr.org/report/shale-gas-and-tight-oil-boom.
12 “OPEC reaches a deal to cut production,” The Economist, December 3, 2016, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/12/03/opec-reaches-a-deal-to-cut-production.
13 See “Sector 51—Information,” 2017 NAICS definition (U.S. Census Bureau), https://www.census.gov/naics/?input=51&chart=2017.
14 See “Construction indicators” (Honolulu, HI: The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawai‘i), http://www.uhero.hawaii.edu/104/construction-indicators.
15 “Eighty percent of contractors report difficulty finding qualified craft workers to hire as association calls for measures to rebuild workforce” (Arlington, VA: The Associated General Contractors of America, August 29, 2018), https://www.agc.org/news/2018/08/29/eighty-percent-contractors-report-difficulty-finding-qualified-craft-workers-hire.
16 Scott Beyer, “America’s housing construction labor shortage continues,” Forbes, April 29, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottbeyer/2017/04/29/americas-housing-construction-labor-shortage-continues/#7ef4bd36706c.
17 Hari Kishan and Rahul Karunakar, “U.S. house prices to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay: Reuters poll,” Reuters, June 6, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-property-poll/u-s-house-prices-to-rise-at-twice-the-speed-of-inflation-and-pay-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1J20G3?il=0.
18 Within federal employment, members of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency are excluded.
19 “Appropriations 101” (Washington, DC: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, May 30, 2018), http://www.crfb.org/papers/appropriations-101.
20 “Managing uncertainty: how state budgeting can smooth revenue volatility” (The Pew Charitable Trusts, February 2014), https://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/pcs_assets/2014/volatilitymanaginguncertaintypdf.pdf.
21 Michelle Park Lazette, “The crisis, the fallout, the change: the Great Recession in retrospect” (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, December 18, 2017), https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/multimedia-storytelling/recession-retrospective.aspx.
22 “Monthly retail trade” (U.S. Census Bureau), https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html.
23 Derek Thompson, “What in the world is causing the retail meltdown of 2017?” The Atlantic, April 10, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/.
24 The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) classifies the category of other services (except public administration) as part of the service-providing supersector group. See “Other services (except public administration): NAICS 81,” Industries at a glance (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag81.htm.
25 See “Sector 48–49—Transportation and warehousing,” 2017 NAICS definition (U.S. Census Bureau), https://www.census.gov/naics/?input=48&chart=2017&details=48.
26 David Schaper, “Record number of miles driven in U.S. last year,” National Public Radio, February 17, 2017, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/21/516512439/record-number-of-miles-driven-in-u-s-last-year.
27 Ivaylo D. Petev and Luigi Pistaferri, “Consumption in the Great Recession” (Stanford, CA: The Russell Sage Foundation and the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, October 2012), https://inequality.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/Consumption_fact_sheet.pdf.
28 Jeanne S. Ringel, Susan D. Hosek, Ben A. Vollaard, and Sergej Mahnovski, “The elasticity of demand for health care: a review of the literature and its application to the military health system” (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2002), https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1355.html.