Industry and occupational employment projections overview and highlights, 2023–33

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects total employment to grow from 167.8 million in 2023 to 174.6 million in 2033, an increase of 4.0 percent. (See chart 1.) Wage and salary employment is projected to grow by 4.2 percent. Total employment growth is projected to be slower than the 13.7-percent increase recorded over the 2013–23 decade. This slower employment growth is the result of an expected slowdown in civilian noninstitutional population growth and, subsequently, slower labor force growth.¹

Total projected employment growth is heavily influenced by demographic trends—such as the aging U.S. population and slower growth in the civilian noninstitutional population—that are expected to cause slower labor force growth and declining labor force participation rates over the projections period. Expected changes to U.S. demographics also influence demand for various goods and services. For example, a larger population of individuals ages 65 and over will drive up demand for services typically consumed in greater quantities by older cohorts, including many healthcare and social assistance services, which should support employment gains in the healthcare and social assistance sector and for healthcare related occupations. (See charts 2 and 3.) In contrast, slower population growth for younger demographics will reduce demand for some educational services and result in declining employment of related teachers.

This article highlights the 2023–33 BLS employment projections. The main highlights are presented directly below. These highlights are followed by a discussion of four overarching trends and how they are expected to affect employment of various industries and occupations: artificial intelligence (AI), clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and information technology (IT).² The article subsequently profiles the employment projections and underlying trends of five sectors: healthcare and social assistance, educational services, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing.³ Together, these five sectors represent nearly one-half of all jobs across the economy. A table is included at the end of each section, showing employment data for the selected sectors, industries, occupational groups, and occupations discussed.⁴ A discussion on projections methodology is included for background information on the projections development process. The article concludes by summarizing the main highlights of the projections.

Highlights from the 2023–33 industry and occupational employment projections include the following:

• The healthcare and social assistance sector is expected to add the most jobs—2.3 million, or over one-third of all new jobs—and grow the second fastest of any sector from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 2.)
• The healthcare support occupational group is expected to see the fastest employment growth and to add the most jobs of any occupational group over the projections decade. (See chart 3.) Home health and personal care aides, an occupation within this group, is expected to add the most jobs of any occupation from 2023 to 2033.
• The professional, scientific, and technical services sector is projected to be the fastest growing sector from 2023 to 2033. Strong demand for computer systems design and related services, which include client-based IT services, is a main driver of the projected growth. (See chart 2.)
• The clean-energy transition is expected to result in continued fast growth for related industries and occupations. Renewable energy generation industries represent the projected 4 fastest growing industries of nearly 300 detailed industries. (See chart 4.) In turn, wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic installers are projected to be the respective top 2 fastest growing occupations of all 832 occupations from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 5.)
• The computer and mathematical occupational group is projected to experience the second fastest job growth of all 22 groups. Computer and mathematical occupations are 5 of the 15 fastest growing occupations. (See chart 5.)
• Productivity improvements associated with the adoption of AI technologies, including generative AI tools, are expected to limit employment demand for several occupations in a variety of fields, such as sales and administrative support.
• Rapid growth in EV sales is expected to fuel EV battery manufacturing, driving job growth in the fifth-fastest-growing industry—other electrical equipment and component manufacturing.
• After recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in the leisure and hospitality supersector is projected to grow at an average pace over the projections decade.⁵
• The continued growth of e-commerce is expected to reduce employment in retail trade, the only sector projected to lose jobs over the 2023–33 decade. In contrast, logistics and shipping demand spurred by e-commerce is expected to underpin fast job growth in the transportation and warehousing sector. (See chart 2.)

Overarching trends

This section contains a discussion of four overarching trends—artificial intelligence (AI), clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and information technology (IT)—that are expected to affect employment in several industries and occupations.

Artificial intelligence

AI is not a new development. The use of AI technologies, such as machine learning and natural language processing, has been occurring for years. But as of late, public interest in AI has increased substantially; this is in large part owing to the release of the large language model ChatGPT in November 2022. Large language models are a form of AI that can generate text by "learning" from training data, thus facilitating human-like conversations. In addition to text, generative AI tools can create other forms of content, including images, video, and sound. With the growing use of generative AI tools, and AI technologies more broadly, much discussion has emerged around the potential impact of AI adoption on workers and jobs.

In its projections methods, BLS approaches AI in the same manner as other technologies. As noted in the projections methodology section, these methods are largely based on relationships found in the historical data. Therefore, it is assumed that impacts from established technologies and other structural changes in the economy are reflected in the historical data. As part of the projections development process, BLS conducts research to gauge whether those impacts are expected to continue, as adoption and maturation of the technology grows, or whether they will diminish, as the benefits of the technology are fully realized.

However, newer technologies, such as generative AI systems, are more difficult to assess because of the lack of historical data. Thus, BLS makes assumptions about the degree of employment impact over the projections period. In the past, structural changes in the economy, including those caused by new technologies, have tended to develop slowly.⁶ Accordingly, BLS assumes in its projections methods that future technological change will also affect the labor market gradually. While it is always possible that future technologies may impact the labor market faster than has been the case for past technologies, BLS projections methods are not designed to account for rapid change. Therefore, BLS assumes that the overall pace of technological change will be consistent with past experience. Moreover, employment projections reflect the impact of all relevant structural factors and cannot isolate the impact of a single factor or technology.

Against this backdrop, what follows is a discussion of several occupations that are projected to experience employment impacts because of the increased adoption of AI, including generative AI. The examples presented below should not be considered exhaustive or definitive. Rather, they are examples in which a reasonable expectation of an AI-driven impact currently exists. Because the capabilities of AI systems continue to evolve, these assessments can change. Generative AI also carries an array of risks, such as those related to “hallucinations,” training data bias, and intellectual property infringement, among other risks.⁷ Thus, there is considerable uncertainty around the extent of generative AI adoption across the economy and, ultimately, its impact on employment. BLS releases new projections data annually, and as more information emerges that helps clarify the extent of the technology’s impact, it will be incorporated into future sets of projections data.

Technology, including that powered by AI, has long been a factor impacting the job outlook of many office and administrative support occupations, with the productivity gains associated with the adoption of digital tools, such as automated phone systems and virtual assistants, constraining demand for these workers. As the integration of existing and new technologies into workflows expands, various types of office and administrative support workers are expected to see additional efficiency gains. As a result, demand is expected to be limited for occupations such as procurement clerks; credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks; customer service representatives; and nonmedical secretaries and administrative assistants. Employment of these occupations is projected to decline or show little change over the 2023–33 decade. Although these technologies are also expected to impact workflows of medical secretaries and administrative assistants––for example, in billing and claims management––the strong demand for medical care is likely to outweigh the effect from increased productivity.⁸ As such, and in contrast to their peers, medical secretaries and administrative assistants are projected to see average job growth over the projections period.

AI technologies are also expected to affect a number of sales occupations. For instance, AI systems can quickly summarize sales calls, analyze their content, and recommend next steps based on the information exchanged. Moreover, AI solutions can assist sales representatives with lead prospecting and scoring, as well as with researching prospects and the competition.⁹ Generative AI tools can also be employed to draft emails, create presentations, and develop sales proposals—tasks that salespeople routinely engage in.¹⁰ By reducing the time and effort spent handling manual and repetitive tasks, AI allows sales representatives to focus more on engaging customers and closing deals. Relevant occupations that are expected to see productivity improvements as a result of AI integration include sales engineers, insurance sales agents, and other types of sales representatives.

In addition to sales and administrative support roles, a variety of other jobs are also expected to be impacted by AI. For example, AI-powered tools designed specifically for the legal services industry can help paralegals and legal assistants review contracts, streamline the discovery process, and conduct research.¹¹ The efficiency gains resulting from these and other AI solutions are likely to constrain employment growth somewhat, with the occupation projected to see slower-than-average job growth over 2023–33. Meanwhile, translators and interpreters, who have used AI for years, have become more productive because they can focus on higher level tasks, while AI can handle the more routine tasks.¹² It is likely that these productivity gains will continue, especially as AI capabilities continue to improve. Consequently, job growth for these workers is expected to be slower than the all-occupation average over the projections decade.

As for generative AI, one occupation whose tasks are highly exposed to the capabilities of this technology is graphic designers. Leveraging generative AI tools in the initial step of the design process allows these workers to explore and iterate ideas faster, enabling them to create first drafts much more quickly and to shift their focus to later stages of the design process. Generative AI can also be used to automate repetitive tasks and speed up certain processes, such as prototyping and design verification.¹³ As uptake of this technology grows, it is reasonable to expect that the occupation will see an uptick in productivity, limiting projected job growth in turn. Other examples of occupations whose tasks have a high potential to be automated or streamlined by generative AI systems include models (as use of AI-generated models grows), technical writers (as documentation is produced more efficiently), and broadcast announcers and radio DJs (as adoption of AI-generated voice technology increases). Therefore, the technology is expected to contribute in limiting employment demand of these workers between 2023 and 2033. (See table 1.)

Although several occupations, including but not limited to those discussed above, are expected to be affected by the labor-saving effects of AI adoption, others are expected to experience a positive impact to their employment outlook. This is the case for some computer occupations, whose skills will be increasingly needed to meet the growing demand for AI-based systems, which are discussed in more detail in the IT section below.  

Clean energy

Demand for electricity in the United States is expected to increase notably over the 2023–33 decade, which would represent a pivot from the recent historical trend of relatively stable electricity demand.¹⁴ There are several factors that are expected to contribute to rising electricity demand over the projections decade. The increasing use and deployment of AI technologies are expected to generate demand for electricity as the number of data centers needed to support cloud infrastructure and AI computation power increases.¹⁵ Data center power demand is forecast to grow by about 160 percent by 2030, which would increase its share of total U.S. electricity consumption from about 3 percent in 2022 to about 8 percent of all electricity by 2030.¹⁶ The ongoing electrification movement is expected to be another driver of stronger electricity demand. EV adoption is expected to ramp up over the 2023–33 period, which will lead to increased power demand for vehicle charging.¹⁷ In addition, the expansion in U.S. manufacturing, particularly of semiconductor and EV battery manufacturing plants, and the electrification of energy-intensive manufacturing industries are expected to raise the manufacturing sector’s electricity demands.¹⁸

The national power grid is increasingly coming under duress because of aging infrastructure, rising electricity demand, and extreme weather conditions.¹⁹ New transmission and distribution lines will be needed to increase reliability and meet rising electricity demand requirements. Furthermore, ongoing growth in renewable energy generation will require expansions in the national transmission network to connect new projects to the power grid so that electricity can be delivered to end users, often located far from renewable energy sites.²⁰ These factors are expected to create new jobs in the electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industry, which is projected to experience 10.9-percent employment growth over the projections period.

The share of renewable electricity generation will continue to increase, especially with the support of federal and state incentives, grants, and loans. Renewable electricity generation was approximately 23.2 percent of net electricity generation to the grid in 2022.²¹ The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects renewable electricity generation to more than double, reaching approximately 54 percent of net electricity generation by 2033.²² Funding from the Inflation Reduction Act was allocated to the continuation and expansion of several renewable energy programs and tax credits, and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act also allocated funding towards renewable energy projects and the buildout of infrastructure needed to support green energy.

Solar power is projected to be the leading renewable energy source by 2033; it is projected to represent about 23 percent of net generation to the grid.²³ EIA projects solar net summer capacity in the electric power sector to expand by approximately 442 percent from 2022 to 2033.²⁴ The capacity and share of solar electricity generation grew exponentially over the last decade because of reductions in the costs of utility-scale solar and incentives from federal grants and tax credits.²⁵

Alongside expansions in capacity, employment in solar electric power generation grew exponentially from 2013 to 2023, by 1,063.1 percent. Thus, the projected rapid employment growth of 275.9 percent in the solar electric power generation industry represents a slowdown from the prior decade. Despite very fast projected growth, this represents an addition of only 35,700 jobs because of the small size of the industry. Solar photovoltaic installers is one occupation that will likely benefit from the expansion of solar power, which is expected to be the second-fastest-growing occupation, with projected job growth of 48.0 percent from 2023 to 2033.

The wind electric power generation industry is expected to be the second-fastest-growing industry from 2023 to 2033. Wind is projected to produce approximately 22.9 percent of total net generation to the grid by 2033.²⁶ The costs of operating wind turbines decrease as the capacity and efficiency of these turbines increase. This makes wind power an increasingly favorable source of energy. In 2022, wind power captured the second highest share of new electricity capacity installed, a 22.0 percent share of added capacity.²⁷ There are approximately 72,000 utility-scale turbines installed nationwide that generate 10.2 percent of total electricity.²⁸ In 2033, the projected net summer capacity for both on and offshore wind in the electric power sector is 327.0 gigawatts (GW), a 126.3-percent increase from 144.5 GW in 2022.²⁹ The expected expansion in wind energy will support employment growth in the wind electric power generation industry, which is projected to grow by 115.1 percent from 2023 to 2033. The expected fast growth in wind generation capacity will also boost employment growth of wind turbine service technicians. With employment growth projected at 60.1 percent, wind turbine service technicians are projected to be the fastest growing occupation in the economy by 2033.

Alongside the growth in wind and solar, new capacity in geothermal energy production is expected to be added over the projections period. EIA projects geothermal net summer capacity to increase from 2.5 GW to 3.3 GW from 2022 to 2033, which is only a fraction of what solar and wind are projected to generate in 2033 (406.7 GW and 327.0 GW, respectively).³⁰ As a result, the geothermal electric power generation industry is projected to experience 42.1-percent employment growth. However, because of its small size, the industry is only projected to add 500 jobs.

On the other hand, employment in nuclear electric power generation is expected to decline 15.9 percent over the 2023–33 decade, resulting in a loss of 5,900 jobs. Despite federal funding to preserve the existing nuclear fleet, the EIA projects installed nuclear generation capacity to decline from 94.8 GW in 2022 to 87.4 GW in 2033.³¹ Since nuclear is less cost competitive than renewables, wind and solar will likely outcompete nuclear energy over the decade, which will lower employment demand in nuclear electric power generation.³²

The share of fossil fuel electric generation is expected to decline because of the rise in the share of renewables electricity generation. The EIA projects net electricity generation using liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal to decline by 43.8 percent from 2022 to 2033.³³ As a result, employment in the fossil fuel electric power generation industry is projected to decline 32.6 percent, resulting in the loss of 24,900 jobs. Because of the projected decline in both nuclear and fossil fuel electricity generation, employment of nuclear power reactor operators and power plant operators is projected to decline by 10.3 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively.

The expansion in renewable energy and energy transmission and distribution infrastructure is expected to fuel demand for related construction and installation services. In turn, this expansion should support job growth in several construction industries and in the related occupations of construction and installation, maintenance, and repair. For example, the electrical contractors and other wiring installations contractors industry is projected to be one of the fastest growing construction industries over the 2023‒33 period, reflecting the expected increase in solar energy generation and vehicle electrification.³⁴

Growth in most types of renewable energy generation will likewise result in an increase in utility-system construction activity. Establishments in the power and communication line and related structures construction industry build wind and solar power structures, thermal power plants, and other renewable energy infrastructure. In addition, the national grid expansion and upgrades expected over the decade should also spur demand for electric power transmission line and tower construction. The power and communication line and related structures construction industry is also projected to be one of the fastest growing construction industries at 6.6 percent.

Installation, repair, and maintenance of transmission and distribution towers and lines should increase alongside the expansion in power-grid infrastructure. Utility companies will likely hire more electrical power-line installers and repairers to perform installations and servicing. Employment of these workers is projected to grow at a faster-than-average rate of 7.6 percent from 2023 to 2033. (See table 2.)

Electric vehicles

Over the last decade, the sales share of new EVs in the United States has increased substantially, from less than 1 percent in 2013 to an estimated 9.5 percent in 2023.³⁵ As battery range improves, charging infrastructure expands, and EVs become more affordable, the demand for EVs is expected to continue to increase. The increase in demand for EVs is expected to drive demand for jobs related to the manufacturing of EVs and EV batteries, EV charging infrastructure, as well as the mining for the inputs of critical minerals and metals. On the other hand, the decline in the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) stock is expected to reduce demand for motor vehicle parts manufacturing and fueling services at gas stations. The effects of the decline in the ICE vehicles stock are expected to dampen demand for some automotive repair and maintenance services, which are expected to experience slow growth, largely because of sustained demand for overlapping essential services between ICEs and EVs.

BLS assumes in its projections that EVs will increase in share to about 40 percent of new vehicle production in 2033, with ICEs remaining the majority. Automakers will likely continue to produce a portfolio of ICE, hybrid, and EV models over the projections period and will want to retain tooling, labor, and resources needed for ICE production.³⁶ To support the increasing sales share of EVs, the employment in the motor vehicle manufacturing industry is projected to grow by 5.8 percent from 2023 to 2033.

The growing demand for EVs is expected to increase demand for battery manufacturing. EV batteries are produced in the other electrical equipment and component manufacturing industry, projected as the fifth-fastest-growing industry over the 2023–33 period. Employment in this industry is projected to grow by 37.7 percent—or about 62,200 jobs—over the decade. As a result of increased demand for EV batteries, inputs to EV batteries and EVs, including critical minerals and metals, are expected to face high demand. Employment in the metal ore mining and nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying industries is expected to grow 8.4 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

By contrast, motor vehicle parts manufacturing is projected to experience a substantial employment decline of 21.5 percent, reflecting the shifting composition of the vehicle fleet towards EVs. A typical EV power train has about 20 moving parts, whereas a conventional vehicle power train can have more than 200 moving parts.³⁷ The notable difference in the number of parts needed for an EV will substantially reduce demand for parts produced by establishments in the motor vehicle parts manufacturing industry, which employed about 573,300 workers in 2023. Many establishments specialize in the production of one mechanical system, such as engine assembly or production of engine components. Not only will those establishments see a decline in demand for their parts over the next decade, but the second- and third-tier suppliers who directly serve the assembly of engine and power train parts with individual components or raw materials will also experience a contraction in demand. Industries that provide inputs to motor vehicle parts manufacturers, such as foundries and coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities, will also experience reduced demand and job losses.

As EV sales increase, the total number of electric vehicles in use is expected to rise notably from the current level of about 2.8 million, 1.1 percent of the total vehicle stock, in 2023.³⁸ The total number of EVs in the target year of 2033 and their share of the total vehicle stock will affect demand for automotive repair and maintenance services, gasoline station services, and the electricity and charging infrastructure needed to charge EVs.

Employment in auto repair and maintenance services is expected to increase at a slower rate than in previous years. EVs typically require less repair and maintenance relative to ICEs.³⁹ EVs do not require regular oil changes, and the regenerative braking systems of EVs have longer lifespans than brake systems in conventional cars.⁴⁰ However, EVs require more frequent tire changes than ICEs because they are heavier than a comparably sized ICE.⁴¹ The increase in the EV stock and the associated decline in the ICE stock should reduce some demand for general and specialty automotive repair and maintenance services. As a result, the automotive mechanical and electrical repair and maintenance industry as well as the other automotive repair and maintenance industry are projected to see slow employment growth of 1.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. In terms of occupational impacts, automotive service technicians and mechanics are expected to face slow 2.7-percent employment growth, whereas employment of automotive and watercraft service attendants is expected to decline slightly at 0.1 percent through the projections decade. Since EVs require more frequent tire services than ICEs, employment of tire repairers and changers is expected to grow 5.3 percent over the 2023–33 period.

To support the growth in electric vehicles there will be a push to expand charging infrastructure. Not only will people need convenient home charging to support the use of an EV, but they will also need reliable fast charging stations that are publicly available. By 2030, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory projects that 26 to 35 million charging ports will be needed to support 30 to 42 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles.⁴² The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act includes a $7.5 billion investment in EV charging to help build out a national network of 500,000 charging ports.⁴³ The buildout of residential and commercial charging infrastructure alongside the growth in demand for electricity will support employment growth in the electrical contractors and other wiring installation contractors industry, which is projected to grow 6.6 percent and add 70,500 jobs between 2023 and 2033. Similarly, electricians and construction laborers have projected faster-than-average job growth of 10.8 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively. Conversely, employment in the gasoline stations industry is projected to decline by 10.0 percent resulting in a loss of 98,400 jobs. (See table 3.)

Information technology

IT encompasses a range of fields related to computing devices, including computer systems and facilities management, software development, cloud computing, data storage and management, and other related technologies and services.⁴⁴ Over the 2023–33 period, demand for IT services and products is expected to increase notably because of strong business demand for software applications, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure and data centers, and the growing adoption of AI and other automation technologies. Altogether, these factors are expected to drive employment growth for several industries and occupations, particularly within the professional, scientific, and technical services and information sectors.

Professional, scientific, and technical services is projected to be the fastest growing of all 20 sectors (10.5 percent) and add over 1.1 million new jobs from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 2.) Strong demand for computer systems design and related services, which include custom IT services and products, is one of the main drivers of the projected growth. The computer systems design and related services industry is projected to grow by 19.5 percent and add about 487,600 jobs over the projections period, which is the second largest increase in jobs of all 292 detailed industries.

The information sector includes establishments that produce and distribute content, provide digital content infrastructure, and process data. Growth in the sector is projected to be largely driven by three digital information industries: software publishers; computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services; and web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information services. (See chart 6.) In other words, this sector’s growth will be driven by its digital technology component, rather than traditional methods of distributing information (for example, radio stations and newspaper publishers). Information is expected to be the fourth-fastest-growing sector (7.1 percent) and add 215,800 new jobs from 2023–33. Employment growth in digital information segments will more than offset declines in traditional information segments, such as newspaper publishing.

Computer and mathematical occupations are highly concentrated in these professional, scientific, and technical services and digital information industries; therefore, the trends that are expected to increase industry employment are also drivers of employment growth for many of these occupations. The computer and mathematical occupational group is projected to experience faster-than-average employment growth of 12.9 percent over the projections decade, the second fastest growth of all 22 groups. In addition, 5 computer and mathematical occupations are featured among the top 15 fastest growing occupations. (See chart 5.)

Businesses will continue to invest in computer systems design services to modernize operations and infrastructure.⁴⁵ In turn, IT professionals will be in demand to design, integrate, test, and operate organizations’ IT infrastructure. Software underpins many business operations, and firms in various industries will continue to invest in software programs and applications to support business activities in management, sales, logistics, or other business functions.⁴⁶ Enterprise demand for custom software programs or applications will generate business for the computer systems design and related services industry, which develops software to meet a particular client’s needs. Meanwhile, the software publishers industry designs, develops, and publishes software and applications for mass distribution across a wide range of industries. Constant innovation in both of these areas will require software developers and other occupations employed by these industries to develop and test upgrades and new programs and applications.

The software publishers industry is projected to grow the fastest of any information industry and be the 12th-fastest-growing industry overall (20.4 percent). Because of strong demand for software development in these industries and the economy at large, employment of software developers is expected to grow at a faster-than-average rate of 17.9 percent from 2023 to 2033. This translates into a projected increase of 303,700 jobs, which is the second largest increase in the number of jobs of any occupation.

Another factor expected to drive growth in IT-related employment is cybersecurity. The pronounced risk of cyber breaches and attacks on enterprise infrastructure and sensitive data will continue to make cybersecurity a paramount concern for many organizations across a range of industries.⁴⁷ For instance, healthcare organizations have experienced an unprecedented number of attacks recently, which in many cases resulted in disruptions to services and operations and substantial revenue losses.⁴⁸ As a result, healthcare providers and other types of organizations will need to continue to invest in cybersecurity to mitigate the risk of attacks.

Demand for cybersecurity is expected to result in fast employment growth of information security analysts, who monitor and assess the security of computer networks and systems and respond to security threats. This computer occupation is projected to see employment grow 32.7 percent from 2023 to 2033, which makes it the fastest growing computer occupation and the fifth-fastest-growing occupation overall. (See charts 5 and 7.)

AI technologies and applications, such as generative AI platforms, machine learning, natural language processing, virtual assistants, and business intelligence and analysis, are expected to be in greater demand over the projections period, particularly in technology-centric fields like finance and professional and business services.⁴⁹ Development and deployment of these technologies require professionals in computer science, programming, data analysis, and software development to build the algorithms and software that facilitate and train these programs.⁵⁰ Demand for these skills is expected to rise in response to the increased uptake of these and other automation technologies.⁵¹ This should create job opportunities for several computer and mathematical occupations, including computer and information research scientists, data scientists, and software developers. (See chart 7.)

As a result of greater adoption of AI and other digital solutions, the volume of data that will be generated and stored is expected to increase notably over the 2023–33 decade. Businesses will need cloud infrastructure to store and manage data. Cloud computing and cloud-based services continue to increase in popularity and the industry is expected to continue to grow, particularly as AI services often run on cloud infrastructure.⁵² In addition, the use of AI requires substantial computing power, both to train AI models and to answer queries.⁵³ The continuing adoption of AI is therefore set to increase data center workload and demand for new data centers.⁵⁴

Strong demand for cloud-based services and data centers is expected to create new jobs in the computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services industry. Employment in this industry is projected to grow 19.5 percent, ranking it the 15th-fastest-growing industry over the 2023–33 period. (See chart 4.)

The expected rapid growth in the amount of data collected over the projections period will also drive demand for mathematical science occupations to help businesses harness their data and analyze it to identify trends and inform decisions. These occupations will see employment growth across a wide range of sectors, such as professional, scientific, and technical services; information; finance and insurance; government; healthcare; and other sectors. Nearly all mathematical science occupations are expected to experience above average employment growth over the projections period, but employment in three occupations is projected to grow by more than 20 percent: data scientists (36.0 percent), operations research analysts (23.0 percent), and actuaries (21.8 percent).

Data scientists are projected to be the fourth-fastest-growing occupation from 2023–33. They will be in demand across a range of industries and fields to build models and applications for the analysis and presentation of data. Operations research analysts will be in demand to use and interpret data analysis to advise managers and other decision makers on business operations, supply chain management, price forecasting, and more. Similarly, actuaries will be hired by insurance carriers and other companies to use big data to assess and forecast the risk of potential events.

Not all computer and mathematical occupations are expected to benefit from these trends. Although overall demand for IT support is expected to increase, the automation of simple or routine IT support functions is expected to limit job opportunities for network and computer systems administrators; their employment is projected to decline by 2.6 percent over the 2023–33 decade.⁵⁵ Similarly, computer programming can be automated or performed by similar occupations such as software developers, which should reduce demand for computer programmers. As a result, employment of computer programmers is projected to decline by 9.6 percent from 2023 to 2033. (See table 4 and chart 7.)

Sector overviews

This section contains a discussion of employment projections and underlying trends of five sectors—healthcare and social assistance, education, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing—as well as of relevant industries and occupations.  

Healthcare and social assistance

Of the 20 sectors in the economy, the healthcare and social assistance sector is projected to experience the second fastest employment growth between 2023 and 2033. (See chart 2.) At 10.0 percent, employment growth in this sector is more than double the average job growth expected for the overall economy. Not only is it one of the fastest growing sectors, but the healthcare and social assistance sector is also expected to add the most jobs of any sector. This sector is projected to add roughly 2.3 million new jobs, representing about one-third of all job gains projected for the economy from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 8.)

Three structural factors underpin the sector’s rapid projected job growth: an aging population, the growing prevalence of chronic conditions, and high levels of mental health and behavioral disorders. Because the likelihood of experiencing health problems increases with age, older adults (defined as those ages 65 and above) generally have more healthcare needs and require more complex care than younger people. For example, it is estimated that almost 65 percent of older adults have at least two chronic conditions, such as arthritis and diabetes, while only about 7 percent of adults ages 18 to 44 do.⁵⁶ Because of this greater disease burden, older adults consume relatively more health services, as expenditure data show. In 2022, for instance, despite making up only about 28 percent of all households, older adults accounted for around 36 percent of total national healthcare spending.⁵⁷ As the number of older adults is projected to increase sharply over the coming years, from 58.3 million in 2023 to 72.2 million by 2033, the demand for medical and social services is expected to increase.⁵⁸ Thus, this increase in the number of older adults will drive overall job growth in the healthcare and social assistance sector.

Meanwhile, the prevalence of chronic disease has increased over the past couple of decades, and this trend is projected to continue.⁵⁹ Currently, 129 million Americans are estimated to have at least one chronic condition.⁶⁰ Mental illness is also common. According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, around 59.3 million adults (23.1 percent of this population) had some form of mental illness in 2022, up from roughly 58.5 million in 2021.⁶¹ And approximately 46.5 million adults (18.1 percent of this population) had a substance use disorder in 2022, which increased notably from 44.4 million in the previous year.⁶² Because of the growing prevalence of chronic disease and elevated levels of mental illness and substance use disorders, the demand to screen, diagnose, treat, and manage these conditions will grow substantially. Thus, strong employment growth is projected in the industries and occupations that provide healthcare and social assistance.

Three occupational groups are closely tied to the healthcare and social assistance sector, all of which rank among the five fastest growing groups. These are the healthcare support, healthcare practitioners and technical, and community and social service groups. Of all 22 occupational groups, the healthcare support group is expected to see both the fastest job growth and the most job gains from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 3.) Meanwhile, healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are anticipated to be the third-fastest-growing group. Combined, these two healthcare groups are projected to account for roughly 30 percent of all the new jobs added between 2023 and 2033.

Of the 15 industries expected to experience the fastest employment growth between 2023 and 2033, 5 are in the healthcare and social assistance sector. (See chart 4.) Notably, two of these industries address mental health: offices of mental health practitioners (except physicians), which is projected to be the fastest growing industry in the sector, and outpatient mental health and substance abuse centers. The rapid job growth projected for these two industries (over 20 percent) is consistent with findings from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health showing that 55.8 million adults (21.8 percent of this population) received mental health treatment in 2022, with the bulk of that care received in an outpatient setting.⁶³ Because the demand for counseling, medication, and treatment is expected to continue to grow, this increased demand will result in strong growth in other mental-health-related industries as well, particularly private psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals and residential mental health and substance abuse facilities. At the same time, because employment of many occupations that provide or help provide mental health and social services tends to be concentrated in mental-health-related industries, these occupations are also expected to be in strong demand. The most relevant of these are clinical and counseling psychologists; substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors; mental health and substance abuse social workers; and psychiatric technicians—all of which are projected to see employment grow by more than 10 percent from 2023 to 2033, much faster than the average for all occupations.

The 3 remaining industries in the healthcare and social assistance sector that rank among the 15 fastest growing industries are services for the elderly and persons with disabilities; home healthcare services; and offices of physical, occupational and speech therapists, and audiologists. (See chart 4.) Employment growth in these three industries will be primarily driven by the increasing number of older adults who will need long-term care and specialized therapy services. Older adults are more likely to have functional limitations than young and middle-age adults, with the most recent data indicating that a large majority of seniors (around 66 percent) has difficulty with at least 1 of 6 core domains of functioning, which include seeing, hearing, mobility, communication, cognition, and self-care.⁶⁴ An aging population, then, will boost demand for long-term services and supports as well as for a variety of therapy services to address functional limitations or other forms of disability. As a result, occupations that have a high concentration of employment in these industries are projected to see strong job growth as well. These include physical therapists, occupational therapists, and their respective assistants; speech-language pathologists; and audiologists—all of which are projected to experience much faster employment growth than the all-occupation average from 2023 to 2033.

Policy prioritization in delivering long-term services and support in home and community settings (rather than in institutional settings like nursing homes) and the general preference of older adults to “age in place” are additional factors expected to fuel job growth not only in the services for the elderly and persons with disabilities and home healthcare services industries but also in the continuing care retirement communities and assisted living facilities for the elderly industry.⁶⁵ In addition to these 3 industries experiencing much faster-than-average job growth, they are also featured among the top 10 industries expected to add the most jobs from 2023 to 2033. One occupation employed by these industries that stands out is home health and personal care aides. Because employment of these workers is highly concentrated in these industries and their work primarily involves providing direct assistance with long-term services and support, they are expected to be in substantial demand over the projections period. Home health and personal care aides not only rank among the 15 fastest growing occupations, but they are also expected to add the most jobs of any occupation—accounting for roughly 1 of every 8 new jobs added to the economy over the 2023–33 decade. (See chart 5.)

Other noteworthy occupations include nurse practitioners and physician assistants, which are projected to be the 2 fastest growing healthcare occupations and rank among the 15 fastest growing occupations from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 5.) The need to alleviate reported physician shortages and the embrace of team-based care models by providers are major factors expected to drive robust demand for these workers.⁶⁶ Additionally, as the demand for medical services and the workers who provide them grow, more medical and health services managers will be needed to plan, direct, and coordinate the delivery of care in all types of healthcare facilities. In addition to being the fastest growing management occupation, medical and health services managers are featured among both the 15 occupations with the fastest job growth and with the most projected job gains between 2023 and 2033. Medical assistants and health information technologists and medical registrars are two additional occupations expected to experience much faster-than-average job growth over 2023–33 (15 percent or more) because of the increasing demand for healthcare. While the former is a key member of care teams across a variety of healthcare settings, the latter will increasingly be needed to analyze the ever-growing volume of clinical data. (See table 5.)

Education

With approximately 14.4 million jobs, the educational services sector makes up the third largest sector in the economy. Declining birth rates have impacted future school enrollments, which have resulted in a projected slow 0.7-percent employment growth in the educational services sector. (See chart 9.)

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent 2023 population projections, the population of the elementary and secondary education age group (ages 5 to 18) and the postsecondary educational age group (ages 18 to 22) are projected to decline from 2023 to 2033, by approximately 6.7 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively.⁶⁷ Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, total public education enrollment had historically trended slightly upwards.⁶⁸ However, total educational enrollment is projected to decline by 2.4 percent from 2023 to 2031.⁶⁹ This decline is primarily driven by a sharp 5.5-percent projected decline in elementary and secondary educational enrollment.⁷⁰ Despite declining demographic projections for the 18- to 22-year-old age group, enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to rise 6.8 percent from 2023 to 2031 because of a growing share of people pursuing higher education and advanced degrees.⁷¹

In the educational services sector, local government elementary and secondary schools have by far the largest employment, at approximately 7.4 million as of 2023. Driven mostly by declining enrollment projections, local elementary and secondary school employment is projected to decline slightly by 1.4 percent to a level around 7.3 million—a net job loss of 107,000 through 2033. Private elementary and secondary schools, the industry comprising the fourth largest employment level of the education sector at approximately 1.2 million, is projected to experience little to no change in employment. As a result of declining demographic and enrollment projections for elementary and secondary education, elementary and middle school teachers as well as secondary school teachers will face a projected decline of 0.7 percent over the decade.

State government and private colleges, universities, and professional schools have the second and third highest employment in the education sector at approximately 2.2 million and 1.7 million, respectively. The number of bachelor’s degrees obtained has increased by approximately 12 percent, from the 2011–12 academic year to the 2021–22 academic year.⁷² As the number of bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degrees conferred increases, employment for state and private colleges, universities, and professional schools will continue to grow. Employment at state colleges, universities, and professional schools is projected to grow by 5.9 percent, which is an approximate gain of 130,800 jobs. Employment at private colleges, universities, and professional schools is projected to grow at a slower rate than the state schools at 1.8 percent.

Alongside the employment growth in the state and private colleges, universities, and professional schools industries, postsecondary teacher occupations are expected to grow faster than average, at 6.8 percent. The top three fields of study that witnessed the greatest growth in conferred bachelor’s degrees from the 2011–12 academic year to the 2021–22 academic year include health professions and related programs, engineering, and biological and biomedical sciences.⁷³ These trends are expected to continue to support demand for postsecondary teacher occupations in these fields because of projected high demand for health, engineering, and biological and biomedical related occupations in the economy. Postsecondary health specialties teachers and postsecondary nursing instructors and teachers are projected to grow 18.8 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively. Demand for health specialty degrees is expected to remain robust, a result of the high demand for medical professionals across specialties. Also expected to grow at a faster-than-average rate is the employment of both postsecondary engineering teachers (9.2 percent) and postsecondary biological science teachers (8.4 percent). (See table 6.)

Leisure and hospitality

Employing about 16.6 million people in 2023, leisure and hospitality is one of the largest supersectors in the economy. Leisure and hospitality comprises three major segments: arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation; and food services and drinking places.⁷⁴

During the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recession in 2020, the leisure and hospitality supersector suffered severe job losses; employment fell 20.7 percent from 2019 to 2020, a loss of 3.4 million jobs. At the time of the pandemic, the future of leisure and hospitality was highly uncertain. It was unclear whether mitigation measures and behavioral changes adopted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 would alter the long-term employment outlook of restaurants, hotels, and other industry establishments.⁷⁵ However, leisure and hospitality services gradually recovered, and the level of real output surpassed the 2019 prepandemic level in 2022. Likewise, employment also recovered and returned to 2019 prepandemic levels in 2023. (See chart 10.) The 2023–33 employment projections take this recovery into account, as well as qualitative research indicating that many pandemic-related changes have dissipated.

Over the 2023–33 decade, employment in the leisure and hospitality supersector is projected to grow by 5.0 percent, which is similar to the projected growth for the total economy, and add approximately 822,700 jobs. Although some labor-saving technologies and practices––such as less frequent hotel room cleanings––are expected to negatively affect employment of some occupations employed in this supersector, growth in overall demand for leisure and hospitality services is expected to lead to employment growth in nearly all leisure and hospitality industries from 2023–33.

Accommodation is expected to be the fastest growing segment, with projected employment growth of 6.6 percent, which is faster than the all-industry average. Growth in accommodation is expected to be underpinned by consumer demand for leisure travel, which is expected to continue to increase over the projections period and will drive spending at hotels, motels, and other types of traveler accommodation. The U.S. Travel Association forecasts that leisure-related domestic trips will grow by about 10 percent from 2022 to 2027.⁷⁶ In addition, international arrivals to the United States are forecast to increase by over 45 percent from 2023 to 2028, according to the International Trade Administration.⁷⁷ These trends will support future hotel occupancy and, in turn, hotel employment.

Despite its projected fast growth, employment in accommodation is expected to remain below prepandemic levels. This may be in part because of a protracted recovery in business travel, which had likely not fully recovered by the end of 2023.⁷⁸ At the same time, although hotel operations will remain labor intensive, workers’ wages are typically one of the largest operating expenses in accommodation, and hotels and other types of traveler accommodations will continue to invest in technologies that will reduce labor costs, such as mobile check-in and kiosks.⁷⁹

The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, which had about 2.5 million jobs in 2023, is also expected to experience faster-than-average employment growth over the 2023–33 period (6.0 percent). This employment growth will be driven by the popularity of, and resulting demand for, recreational pastimes, such as visiting museums and historical sites, belonging to a fitness or recreational sports center, or attending a live performance.⁸⁰ In addition, strong consumer demand for live performances and events––such as concerts, festivals, performing arts productions, and sports events––will create job opportunities for agencies and professionals that promote, organize, and manage these events and the operational staff of the venue or event site.

Food services and drinking places, which is the largest subsector in leisure and hospitality, is expected to add the most jobs of any leisure and hospitality subsector. Employment in food services and drinking places is projected to grow 4.5 percent over the 2023–33 decade, about as fast as the total economy. This translates into 545,700 new jobs, which is approximately two-thirds of the expected job growth in leisure and hospitality. In turn, food preparation and serving related occupations, which are heavily concentrated in this subsector, are projected to grow at a similar rate of 4.3 percent. Within this group, notable job gains are expected for restaurant cooks and fast food and counter workers, which are expected to experience the third and fourth largest increases in employment of all occupations over the projections period, respectively. (See table 7.)

Retail trade and transportation and warehousing

The retail trade sector is the only sector projected to experience a decline in employment from 2023 to 2033. (See chart 11.) The decline will be primarily driven by the two largest retail trade industries, general merchandise retailers and grocery and specialty food retailers, which together account for about 63 percent of the sector’s projected job losses. Notably, these two industries also rank among the five industries expected to shed the most jobs over the 2023–33 decade.

The core structural factor expected to impact retail trade employment is continued e-commerce growth. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a major shift to online shopping, which boosted e-commerce’s share of total retail sales from 11.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 16.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020.⁸¹ Although this share declined modestly through mid-2022 as spending patterns normalized postpandemic, it has reversed course and risen every quarter since then. And in annual terms, 2023 online sales accounted for 15.3 percent of all retail sales, marking an all-time high.⁸² Going forward, e-commerce is largely expected to continue to grow as it takes up an increasing share of the retail market.⁸³

Retailers have implemented various strategies to keep up with a growing online economy and changing shopping habits. One major approach taken has been to offer shoppers a "buy online, pickup in store" (BOPIS) option.⁸⁴ BOPIS is part of the broader omnichannel strategy that retailers are adopting whereby they offer customers multiple fulfillment options, including curbside pickup and home delivery. Although the adoption of omnichannel strategies may support employment demand in some retail segments, employment in the retail trade sector overall is nevertheless expected to shrink.

One reason for the expected contraction is that e-commerce provides more support to jobs in the logistics and distribution space, which are areas mostly covered by the transportation and warehousing sector rather than retail trade. Moreover, retailers may decide to shut down stores in the face of growing online competition or as a means to cut costs, which may lead to job losses in turn.⁸⁵ Other business practices may also reduce labor needs, such as the use of self-checkout systems. Recently, some retailers have been reexamining the use of this technology because of issues like theft and system errors. But, given the speed and convenience that self-checkout provides, many consumers still prefer this option; thus, demand for self-checkout is likely to remain strong.⁸⁶ Cashier employment is particularly impacted by the use of self-checkout because the task of scanning and bagging items is passed on to the customer. Additionally, self-checkout allows retailers to capture efficiency gains as one single cashier can oversee multiple stations.

The occupational group most closely tied to the retail trade sector is the sales and related group, which is expected to see the second largest drop in employment over the 2023–33 decade. (See chart 3.) While job losses are projected for several occupations within this group, those losses are mainly concentrated among cashiers. In fact, cashiers are expected to shed the most jobs of any occupation from 2023 to 2033, which amounts to 353,100 positions lost. As a result, by 2033, cashiers are projected to be the eighth largest occupation in the economy, down from fifth in 2023.

As mentioned previously, e-commerce growth will reduce retail trade employment but will support job growth in the transportation and warehousing sector. (See chart 12.) This sector is projected to be the seventh-fastest-growing sector of the economy and add around 387,000 new jobs between 2023 and 2033, which is more than the projected job losses in retail trade. Also, this job growth results in the sector having the fourth largest increase in jobs among all sectors. Most of those employment gains (approximately 58 percent) will be driven by two industries: warehousing and storage and couriers and express delivery services. Local messengers and local delivery is another notable industry because it is projected to experience the fastest employment growth within the transportation and warehousing sector.

E-commerce growth translates to more demand for warehousing space to store and process the increasing number of products that are purchased online. Demand for parcel delivery is expected to continue to grow. According to one forecast, about 28 billion parcels will be shipped in 2028, up from roughly 22 billion parcels in 2023.⁸⁷ In addition to an increasing volume of packages, consumers expect products to arrive quickly.⁸⁸ Thus, the need to facilitate 1- and 2-day shipping is likely to further support demand for warehousing and storage services. Meanwhile, warehousing firms continue to leverage technology, including robots and warehouse management systems, to automate various aspects of the sorting, storing, picking, and packing processes.⁸⁹ Automation makes warehouse operations more efficient and is therefore likely to dampen labor demand. However, solid demand for warehousing and storage services because of the growth of online shopping is expected to outweigh this effect, supporting job growth in the industry in turn. Likewise, as the volume of parcels that need delivery grows, including small parcels and perishable items like food and groceries, strong demand is anticipated for the services provided by the local messengers and local delivery and couriers and express delivery-services industries. As a result, employment in these two industries is projected to grow much faster than the average for the total economy over the 2023–33 decade.

The strong job growth projected for the transportation and warehousing industries highlighted above will contribute to rapid or sizeable job gains for a variety of occupations tied to e-commerce. Although these workers may not have a high concentration of employment in these industries, they are nevertheless poised to benefit from the growth of online shopping. These occupations are mainly concentrated in the transportation and material moving group, in which driver/sales workers and light truck drivers particularly stand out. Employment of these two occupations is projected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations between 2023 and 2033. Similarly, stockers and order fillers are expected to see above-average job growth over the projections decade. Hand laborers and freight, stock, and material movers and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are two additional occupations with a positive job outlook because of e-commerce growth. These two occupations are projected to experience the second and third largest employment gains, respectively, in the group. Altogether, these five occupations––driver/sales workers; light truck drivers; stockers and order fillers; hand laborers and freight, stock, and material movers; and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers––will account for the vast majority of the new jobs (almost 80 percent) projected to be added by the transportation and material moving group from 2023 to 2033. (See table 8.)

Projections methodology

Projected total employment is determined in large part by projected changes in the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force. These aggregate projections are used to develop output and employment projections by industry, which form the basis for occupational employment projections.⁹⁰ For a more detailed discussion of the 2023–33 labor force and macroeconomic projections and their underlying trends, see “Labor force and macroeconomic projections overview and highlights, 2023–33.”⁹¹ 

BLS produces occupational employment projections by analyzing current and future staffing patterns (the distribution of occupations within an industry) in an industry–occupation matrix. Changes in the staffing pattern for each industry are projected and applied to the final industry projections, which yield detailed occupational projections by industry. This projected employment matrix, known as the National Employment Matrix, includes estimates for 832 occupations across 292 industries.

This article highlights the expected changes to industry and occupational employment over the 2023–33 decade and the likely reasons for those changes. The employment projections for the occupations that are featured in this article represent the total employment change for workers across the economy. Many of these occupations may have a high concentration of employment in specific industries. Therefore, the trends expected to affect employment in those specific industries largely drive the employment changes projected across these occupations. However, the employment outlook of occupations can also be influenced by factors specific to an occupation or by trends affecting other industries in which the workers in the occupation are employed. Similarly, the impact of technological developments and trends is just one facet of the outlook for the industries and occupations discussed in the overarching trends section. In some cases, these technological developments and trends may be the main drivers of change over the projection horizon; in other cases, it may be one factor among many.

Projections methods are heavily based on historical relationships in the data. Nevertheless, BLS also conducts research on factors that are expected to affect employment, which may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies and legislation. BLS generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, such as when there is convincing evidence for a change in projections. BLS issues new projections annually to incorporate new data, research, and analysis. The analysis in this article reflects the research that BLS uses to develop and validate its projections.

Recent rapid developments in AI have raised the prospect that the future rate of technological progress could be faster than the historical pattern. The uncertainty about potential impacts of AI remains very high. Projections always carry a degree of uncertainty, and the exact effect of developments, such as new technologies, on the labor market 10 years in the future is impossible to predict with precision. The historical record does show that technology impacts occupations, but that these technological changes tend to be gradual and not sudden.⁹² Occupations are complex combinations of tasks, and even when technology advances rapidly, it can take time for employers and workers to figure out how to incorporate new technology into business practices. New technologies may change the composition or weighting of tasks performed by an occupation even if they do not impact overall demand for an occupation.

Conclusion

The healthcare and social assistance and professional, scientific, and technical services sectors are projected to see the fastest employment growth between 2023 and 2033. Combined, these two sectors account for around half of the projected job gains for the economy overall. Aging demographics and the elevated and increasing prevalence of chronic disease and mental illness will fuel job growth among industries and occupations that provide healthcare and related services.

Additionally, strong demand for a wide range of information technology products and services is expected to drive rapid and substantial job gains in computer systems design and related services, which will contribute to fast job growth among computer and mathematical occupations. At the same time, the productivity gains associated with the growing adoption of artificial intelligence technologies, including generative artificial intelligence, are expected to dampen employment demand for occupations in a variety of fields, such as in sales and administrative support.

Growing electricity demand, in part driven by the continued expansion of the electric vehicle fleet and the clean-energy transition, will boost employment in renewable energy generation industries. Notably, the wind and solar energy generation industries are projected to experience the fastest employment growth from 2023 to 2033. Meanwhile, projected declines in elementary and secondary school enrollment are expected to substantially constrain employment growth in the educational services sector.

Despite the substantial job losses in the leisure and hospitality supersector prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, employment recovered to prepandemic levels in 2023 and is projected to grow at an about average rate through 2033. The food services and drinking places subsector is the main driver of the projected job growth.

Although the continued growth of e-commerce is set to reduce employment in retail trade, which is the only sector projected to lose jobs over the 2023–33 decade, it will contribute to firm job growth in several industries and occupations tied to the transportation and warehousing sector.