Projected Gross Domestic Product growth linked to slower labor force growth

The economy is projected to grow by 1.9 percent each year, on average, from 2023 to 2033. This rate is close to the average growth rates of the previous two decades but slower than those in the 1980s and 1990s. Growth rates for the labor force (those working or looking for work) followed a similar trend.

Economic growth is the increased value of goods produced and services provided in the United States, also known as gross domestic product, or real GDP. Slower economic growth in recent decades is attributable, in part, to a slowdown in labor force growth. Growth of the 75-and-older age group, who are less likely to work, is projected to account for more than two-thirds of all population growth over the 2023–33 projections period. Limited growth in the working age population means fewer new workers to produce goods and provide services and, in turn, limited overall growth of the economy.

These data are from the Employment Projections program. For more information, see the Monthly Labor Review article, "Labor force and macroeconomic projections overview and highlights, 2023–33," and our labor force and real GDP projections data.