Industry and occupational employment projections overview and highlights, 2024–34

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects total employment to grow from 170.0 million in 2024 to 175.2 million in 2034, an increase of 3.1 percent, which is much slower than the 13.0-percent employment growth recorded over the 2014–24 decade. (See chart 1.) While wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 3.1 percent, the number of self-employed workers is projected to increase by 2.2 percent over the projections period.¹

Total projected employment growth is heavily influenced by demographic trends—such as the aging population and slower growth in the civilian noninstitutional population—that are expected to cause slower labor force growth and declining labor force participation rates over the projections decade.² In broad terms, labor force and macroeconomic projections are used to develop output and employment projections at the industry level, which then feed into projections for occupational employment. These industry and occupational employment projections are the focus of this article.³ (See charts 2 and 3.)

The article starts with the main highlights of the 2024–34 BLS employment projections. These highlights are followed by a table that shows information about important skills and other worker characteristics for the projected 15 fastest growing occupations between 2024 and 2034.⁴ (See table 1.) The article continues with a discussion of recent trends in artificial intelligence (AI) and the technology’s expected impact on employment in various industries and occupations. The article then profiles the employment projections and structural trends in several sectors, including healthcare and social assistance; professional, scientific, and technical services; education; retail trade; and others. Each section has an accompanying table that shows employment data for the different sectors, industries, occupational groups, and occupations discussed.⁵ Finally, the article provides an overview of the methodology used to develop these employment projections and concludes with a summary of the main highlights.

Highlights from the 2024–34 industry and occupational employment projections include the following:

• The growing adoption of AI technologies, including generative AI tools, and resulting productivity gains are expected to dampen labor demand in a variety of fields, such as sales, design, and administrative support.
• Of the 292 detailed industries published by the Employment Projections program, the 4 fastest growing industries are tied to renewable energy generation. (See chart 4.)
• The healthcare and social assistance sector is projected to see the fastest job growth (8.4 percent) and add the most jobs (roughly 2.0 million) of all 20 sectors between 2024 and 2034. (See chart 2.)
• Nurse practitioners is projected to be the fastest growing healthcare occupation from 2024 to 2034, while home health and personal care aides—the largest occupation in the economy—is projected to add the most jobs of all the 832 detailed occupations published by the Employment Projections program.
• Growing demand for consulting services and for scientific research and development is expected to increase employment demand for various types of engineers, as well as for several occupations in the fast-growing business and financial operations occupational group. (See chart 3.)
• The strong and increasing demand for IT solutions, including AI-based systems, will boost demand for computer and mathematical occupations: 5 of the 15 fastest growing occupations are in the computer and mathematical group. (See chart 5.)
• Job growth in the educational services sector is projected to be fairly muted over the 2024–34 decade, largely reflecting a declining child population and therefore declining elementary and secondary school enrollment.
• While e-commerce growth will continue to weigh on employment in the retail trade sector, which is one of the four sectors projected to lose jobs from 2024 to 2034, it is set to support employment demand in some segments of the transportation and warehousing sector, particularly logistics and distribution. (See chart 2.)

Artificial intelligence

AI technology continues to advance. In addition to large language models (LLMs), new iterations of image, sound, and video generation software are being deployed. This technology has generated widespread public interest, including its potential implications for the future labor market.

BLS projections methods include some key assumptions which frame the expected employment impact of AI. One is the assumption of a full-employment economy in the projected year.⁶ This is assumed in order for the projections to ignore cyclical economic fluctuation and focus on long-term structural change in the distribution of employment among occupations and industries. This assumption is part of the overall labor force and macroeconomic components of the projections model, which projects total employment growth of 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2034.

Second, the projections assume that the pace of structural change in the economy due to technology will follow its historical pattern. This has traditionally been gradual, with job displacement due to technological change typically taking longer than technologists expect.⁷ While it is possible that future technologies may affect the labor market faster than has been the case for past technologies, BLS projections methods are not designed to account for rapid change. Therefore, BLS assumes that the overall pace of technological change will be consistent with past experience.

However, AI is already being deployed in a variety of work settings, with likely productivity-enhancing effects on a range of occupations. Several occupations are projected to experience employment impacts because of the increased adoption of AI, including generative AI (which can create new content rather than just use existing data to do analysis). The following examples should not be considered exhaustive or definitive. Rather, they are examples in which a reasonable expectation of an AI-driven impact currently exists. Because the capabilities of AI systems continue to evolve, these assessments can change. Generative AI also carries an array of risks, such as those related to hallucinations, training data bias, and intellectual property infringement, among others.⁸ Thus, there is considerable uncertainty around the extent of generative AI adoption across the economy and its impact on employment. BLS releases new projections data annually and, as more information emerges that helps clarify the extent of the technology’s impact, it will be incorporated into future sets of projections data.

Arts, design, media, and communication occupations are expected to be particularly susceptible to productivity effects from generative AI. Graphic designers, for example, can leverage generative AI tools in the initial step of the design process, which allows these workers to explore and iterate ideas faster, enabling them to create first drafts much more quickly and to shift their focus to later stages of the design process. Generative AI can also be used to automate repetitive tasks and speed up certain processes, such as prototyping and design verification.⁹ These productivity gains are expected to limit demand for this occupation, which is projected for slower than average employment growth for 2024–34.¹⁰ Meanwhile, interpreters and translators have become more productive as AI translation capabilities continue to improve, reducing their employment demand.¹¹ Other examples of occupations in this group whose tasks have a high potential to be automated or streamlined by generative AI systems include special effects artists and animators (as video generation software improves in speed and quality), technical writers (as documentation is produced more efficiently), and broadcast announcers and radio DJs (as adoption of AI-generated voice technology increases). Therefore, the technology is expected to limit the employment demand of these workers between 2024 and 2034.

Several healthcare-related occupations are also expected to be affected by AI. For example, medical secretaries and administrative assistants are expected to see productivity-enhancing effects on their billing and claims management tasks.¹² AI-based tools that make the medical-coding process more efficient are also expected to moderate demand for medical records specialists. Among healthcare practitioners, radiologists are incorporating AI into traditional computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems, which increases efficiency.¹³ However, these productivity effects are counteracted by the strong underlying demand for healthcare, meaning employment growth is still projected for these occupations. Employment of medical transcriptionists, however, is projected to decline 4.9 percent from 2024 to 2034 because AI technology can recognize speech and transcribe audio, reducing the need for these workers.¹⁴

AI technologies are also expected to affect a number of sales occupations. For instance, AI systems can quickly summarize sales calls, analyze their content, and recommend next steps based on the information exchanged. Moreover, AI solutions can assist sales representatives with lead prospecting and scoring as well as with researching prospects and the competition.¹⁵ Generative AI tools can also be employed to draft emails, create presentations, and develop sales proposals—tasks that salespeople routinely engage in.¹⁶ By reducing the time and effort spent handling manual and repetitive tasks, AI allows sales representatives to focus more on engaging customers and closing deals and reduces their employment demand. Relevant occupations that are expected to see productivity improvements and decreased demand for their labor as a result of AI integration include sales engineers, insurance sales agents, and other types of sales representatives.

Automation technology has long been a factor impacting the job outlook of many office and administrative support occupations, with the productivity gains associated with the adoption of digital tools, such as automated phone systems and virtual assistants, constraining demand for these workers. As the integration of existing and new AI technologies into workflows expands, various types of office and administrative support workers are expected to see additional efficiency gains. As a result, demand is expected to be limited for occupations such as billing and posting clerks; procurement clerks; credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks; customer service representatives; and nonmedical secretaries and administrative assistants. Employment of these occupations is projected to decline or show little change over the 2024–34 decade.

A variety of other jobs are also expected to be impacted by AI. For example, AI-powered tools designed specifically for the legal services industry can help paralegals and legal assistants review contracts, streamline the discovery process, and conduct research.¹⁷ The efficiency gains resulting from these and other AI solutions are likely to constrain job growth, with the paralegals and legal assistants occupation projected to see little or no employment change over 2024–34. Likewise, digital tutors can use AI and LLM technology to impart information and answer student questions, which is expected to slow employment growth for tutors.¹⁸ Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators can use AI tools to assess photographs of property damage, which improves efficiency in generating payout estimates.¹⁹ Consequently, employment of these workers is projected to decline 5.1 percent from 2024–34. (See table 2.)

Although several occupations, including but not limited to those discussed above, are expected to be affected by the labor-saving effects of AI adoption, others are expected to experience a positive impact to their employment outlook. This is the case for some computer occupations, whose skills will be increasingly needed to meet the growing demand for AI-based systems, which are discussed in more detail in the IT section.

Healthcare and social assistance

Of the 20 sectors in the economy, the healthcare and social assistance sector is projected to experience the fastest employment growth between 2024 and 2034. (See charts 2 and 6.) Employment in this sector is expected to grow 8.4 percent, almost 3 times faster than the average job growth expected for the overall economy (3.1 percent). In addition, the sector is expected to add roughly 2.0 million new jobs over 2024–34, representing the most jobs added by any sector.

Three occupational groups are closely tied to the healthcare and social assistance sector: healthcare support, healthcare practitioners and technical, and community and social service. Because of the strong demand expected for healthcare and social assistance services, these three groups rank among the five fastest growing occupational groups. (See chart 3.) Of all 22 occupational groups, the healthcare support group is projected to experience both the fastest employment growth and largest increase in jobs over the 2024–34 decade. Meanwhile, employment in the healthcare practitioners and technical group is projected to grow at the third-fastest pace of 7.2 percent, more than twice the average job growth of all 22 groups. Combined, these two healthcare groups will account for roughly one third of all new jobs created between 2024 and 2034.

The growing size of the older adult population (defined as people age 65 or older) is one major factor that will drive rapid growth in healthcare and social assistance jobs. This is mainly because older adults have a greater disease burden than younger people, as the likelihood of experiencing health complications rises with age. Since the elderly population will continue to expand (the number of older adults is projected to climb from 59.7 million in 2024 to 72.5 million in 2034), the demand for medical and social services will only continue to increase.²⁰

An aging population will fuel demand for workers in 3 of the 15 fastest growing industries; namely, offices of physical, occupational and speech therapists, and audiologists (23.3 percent); services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (21.0 percent); and home healthcare services (18.6 percent). (See chart 4.) A growing elderly population will also create many job opportunities in the fast-growing continuing care retirement communities and assisted living facilities for the elderly industry (10.5 percent). The growing number of older adults who will need long-term care, including social services like adult daycare and nonmedical home care, as well as therapy services for functional limitations and other disabilities will boost employment in these four industries. The increased prioritization in delivering long-term services and supports in home and community settings coupled with the general preference of adults to remain at home as they age will further add to employment demand.²¹ Not only are these 4 industries projected to experience much faster-than-average employment growth, but they also rank among the top 15 industries projected to add the most jobs from 2024 to 2034.

Several healthcare occupations have a relatively high concentration of employment in these four industries and are thus poised to experience swift job growth as well. These include physical therapists, occupational therapists, and their respective assistants; home health and personal care aides; speech-language pathologists; and audiologists—occupations whose employment is projected to grow more than three times as fast as the all-occupation average. Home health and personal care aides are particularly noteworthy because they provide hands-on, long-term care services to clients (primarily older adults), and are the largest occupation in the economy, with approximately 4.3 million jobs in 2024. As a result, this occupation is projected to add the most jobs of any occupation (739,800)—accounting for roughly 1 of every 7 jobs added over the projections decade.

The elevated chronic disease burden in the general population is another major contributor to healthcare demand. Recent data indicate that chronic disease prevalence has increased among both young and midlife adults, with the former group in particular seeing a significant increase, largely due to rising obesity rates. Altogether, over 75 percent of adults are estimated to have at least one chronic condition, while more than 50 percent have two or more.²² Going forward, it is expected that chronic disease, such as diabetes or heart disease, will become more prevalent.²³ 

Meanwhile, although not as prevalent, behavioral health issues remain common. According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a total of 58.7 million adults (22.8 percent of this population) had been diagnosed with a mental illness, such as depression or bipolar disorder, in 2023—levels that have remained largely stable since 2021. Additionally, 48.5 million Americans age 12 or older (17.1 percent of this population) had a substance use disorder in 2023, increasing from 46.8 million in 2021.²⁴ Against the backdrop of a high and increasing prevalence of chronic diseases or behavioral health disorders, the demand to diagnose, treat, and manage these conditions will expand significantly. Consequently, robust employment growth is expected in the industries and occupations that provide these services.

For example, employment in offices of mental health practitioners (except physicians) is projected to grow 26.4 percent from 2024 to 2034, making it the fastest growing industry in the healthcare and social assistance sector. The growing demand for counseling, medication, and treatment will boost jobs in other mental-health-related industries as well. These include outpatient mental health and substance abuse centers, residential mental health and substance abuse facilities, and private psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals, all of which are projected to grow at a much faster-than-average pace (at least 10 percent) over the 2024–34 period. Because some occupations that provide mental health and social services are heavily concentrated in these industries, they will likewise experience strong employment growth that is well above the all-occupation average. This is the case for psychiatric technicians (20.0 percent); substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors (16.8 percent); clinical and counseling psychologists (11.2 percent); and mental health and substance abuse social workers (9.7 percent).

Several other healthcare occupations will be in demand over the coming years. Chief among them are nurse practitioners, whose employment is projected to increase by 40.1 percent through 2034—making it the fastest growing healthcare occupation and third-fastest growing occupation in the economy. (See chart 5.) Demand for nurse practitioners and for physician assistants (which are projected to be the third-fastest growing healthcare occupation) are set to expand considerably as healthcare providers increasingly rely on these workers to deliver care under a collaborative, team-based care framework.²⁵

The increase in team-based approaches to care will likewise boost employment of ophthalmic medical technicians. By leveraging the skillset of these workers, optometrists and ophthalmologists are able to focus on complex cases and to see more patients.²⁶ At 19.8 percent, the occupation is projected to be the fifth-fastest growing healthcare occupation between 2024 and 2034. Strong job gains are also expected for medical and health services managers. As the complexity of the healthcare system grows—in large part owing to advancements in technology, shifting policies and regulations, and evolving models of care—more managers will be needed to plan, direct, and coordinate healthcare service delivery.²⁷ This occupation is projected to be the fastest growing management occupation, ranking among the top 15 occupations with the fastest job growth and with the largest increase in employment from 2024 to 2034. (See table 3.)

Professional, scientific, and technical services and financial services

Professional, scientific, and technical services is projected to be the second-fastest growing sector for 2024–34, with a projected 7.5-percent employment growth rate. (See chart 7.) This fast growth also translates to 812,500 new jobs over the projections period. (See chart 2). In addition to computer and mathematical occupations (which are discussed in the information technology section), business and financial operations occupations and architecture and engineering occupations are among the occupational groups predominately employed in this sector that are expected to see faster-than-average employment growth.

Consulting services

Among the detailed industries in this sector is management, scientific, and technical consulting services, which is projected to see 9.4-percent employment growth from 2024 to 2034. This industry provides strategic and operational advice to business and government clients. The specialties of consulting that are seeing the most growth tend to mirror the segments of the overall economy seeing the strongest demand, including healthcare consulting. A range of client types within healthcare seek consulting services, including healthcare providers, insurance companies, and pharmaceutical firms. Consulting firms assist clients in cutting costs, boosting revenue, and navigating governmental reimbursement and regulatory systems.²⁸ As the population ages and healthcare spending becomes a larger share of the overall economy, healthcare consulting is expected to grow as well.

Similarly, IT consulting is seeing strong demand. Companies turn to these services to address a specific IT concern or to develop a strategy around an emerging technology. The latter has become particularly relevant recently with the emergence of AI consulting. Firms are seeking guidance on how to implement AI, including generative AI programs, into their operations.²⁹ Questions such as which functions to automate, how much to invest in AI, and which platforms provide the most benefit can be addressed by IT consulting. As AI has a wide range of potential uses but also uncertainty in how and when to implement it, IT consulting services are expected to be in high demand to help firms develop an approach to implementing AI tools.

The top-employed occupation in the management, scientific, and technical consulting services industry is management analysts. Also known as management consultants, these workers meet with clients, develop plans and proposals, and present solutions via presentations and reports. These workers are projected to grow 8.8 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations. Market research analysts and marketing specialists (who analyze how to attract customers) and general and operations managers (who are the higher level managers in this industry) are also highly concentrated here and are projected to grow 6.7 percent and 4.4 percent over the projections period, respectively.

Training and development specialists are also employed in this industry and are expected to see a much faster-than-average employment growth of 10.8 percent for 2024–34. This is another example of an occupation positively impacted by the emergence of AI, as these specialists will be in demand to train employees on the latest iterations of AI platforms as they are implemented by their firms.³⁰

Scientific research and development

As discussed, technological change has widespread economic impacts: supporting demand for certain occupations and automating tasks performed by others. But before new technology can be used, it must be originated. That largely happens in the research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences industry (scientific R&D for short). As there is strong demand to develop new technology, this industry is projected to see fast employment growth, of 8.7 percent, from 2024 to 2034.

Again, while a wide variety of industries have scientific R&D needs, the segments seeing the strongest demand in this industry are associated with broader economic trends, and among these is the strong growth of healthcare services. Health- and biotechnology-related research, including research on diseases, DNA, pharmaceutical development, and medical equipment, is expected to be in strong demand. With a rise in chronic conditions, there will be increased efforts to find ways to prevent or cure conditions such as Alzheimer’s, cancer, and diabetes.³¹ In addition, scientific R&D efforts will be geared towards technology that can more effectively detect and help diagnose health issues, including remote patient monitoring and wearable sensors.³² The occupations expected to see the most demand over the projections period due to this trend include medical scientists, except epidemiologists (projected to grow 8.7 percent for 2024–34); biochemists and biophysicists (5.8 percent); and bioengineers and biomedical engineers (5.2 percent).

Demand associated with the development and improvement of AI itself also contributes to employment growth—and the scientific R&D industry is an example. AI labs develop the AI tools and platforms that are used by the wider public.³³ This includes generating ideas for new tools, initial buildout, testing and improving platforms, and incorporating user feedback. The continuous need to evaluate and improve these platforms is a source of ongoing demand here, as AI platforms, including LLMs, release periodic updates to their models as improvements are incorporated. The strong projected growth for software developers (an occupation discussed in the information section) is driven in part by the strong growth in the scientific R&D industry.

Other technologies are also developed through scientific R&D, including automated machinery and processes used in manufacturing (including collaborative robots, 3D printing, and robotic process automation).³⁴ While the downstream effects of these technologies are to automate production tasks, which reduces labor needs, there is a positive employment effect in this industry for the workers needed to develop the technologies. These include mechanical engineers and industrial engineers, both of which are projected to grow much faster than the all-occupation average, at 9.1 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively. In addition, the need to develop new telecommunications technology is expected to boost demand for electronics engineers, except computer, which is projected to grow 6.2 percent over the projections period, faster than the all-occupation average. While the scientific R&D industry employs a large number of mechanical and industrial engineers, they are also employed heavily in the engineering services industry, which is projected to grow 4.2 percent for 2024–34.

Finance and insurance

Adjacent to professional and business services is the finance and insurance sector, which is projected to grow 3.4 percent from 2024 to 2034. (See chart 8.) Within this sector, the securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities industry is projected to grow at a faster-than-average rate of 6.0 percent for 2024–34. As the last of the baby boomers move into the traditional retirement age groups over the 2024–34 decade (the youngest of whom were 60 as of 2024), there will continue to be strong demand for financial planning services to help these individuals plan for their retirements.³⁵ Individuals will seek planning advice on how much to save and invest, how to allocate finances, and when they can expect to retire via different investment plans. In addition, older individuals may also seek estate planning services to prepare for how their assets will be handled after their death.

Personal financial advisors is the top-employed occupation in this industry and is projected to grow 9.6 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations. These workers handle the individual financial advisory services related to retirement and estate planning. While AI-powered robo-advisors have emerged as an alternative to human advisors, it is expected that this will only have a mild effect on employment for these workers, as older clients with sophisticated financial planning needs are unlikely to trust automated recommendations.³⁶ Other occupations concentrated in the industry include financial and investment analysts (who evaluate potential investments), and securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents, who sell financial securities. These workers are projected to grow 5.7 percent and 3.3 percent from 2024 to 2034, respectively. (See table 4).

Information technology

The information sector is projected to be the third-fastest growing sector of the economy between 2024 and 2034, with employment growing at a much faster-than-average pace of 6.5 percent. (See charts 2 and 9.) Job growth will be primarily driven by two industries: software publishers and computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services. These two industries are projected to experience rapid employment growth due to the strong and growing demand for IT products and services, such as software, cybersecurity, cloud computing, and AI-based systems. This strong demand is likewise expected to boost job growth in computer systems design and related services, an industry classified under the professional, scientific, and technical services sector. Employment in each of these 3 industries is expected to grow at least 15 percent over the projections period, placing them among the 15 fastest growing industries in the economy. (See chart 4.) Notably, both software publishers and computer systems design and related services also rank among the 15 industries projected to add the most jobs from 2024 to 2034.

Because computer and mathematical occupations have a high concentration of employment in the three IT-related industries just discussed, the trends expected to drive industry job growth will also fuel employment growth across several of these occupations. Overall, the computer and mathematical occupational group is projected to see job growth of 10.1 percent over the 2024–34 decade, the second-fastest of all 22 groups and over 3 times as fast as the all-occupation average. (See chart 3.) Furthermore, 5 of the 15 fastest growing occupations are in the computer and mathematical group. (See chart 5).

IT professionals will be in demand to design, install, integrate, test, and manage organizations’ IT infrastructure. Companies will continue to prioritize investment in IT infrastructure, whether hardware or software, to support business operations.³⁷ In addition, firms in various industries will continue to rely on custom software to address their unique business needs.³⁸ These factors will fuel demand for computer systems design and related services, resulting in strong job growth. From 2024 to 2034, this industry is projected to experience both the fastest job growth and the most job gains in the professional, scientific, and technical services sector.

At the same time, strong demand for software development across many areas of the economy will boost employment in the software publishers industry, which designs, develops, and publishes software for mass distribution. One occupation that stands to benefit from these trends is software developers. Not only are they projected to experience employment growth that is over 5 times faster than the all-occupation average (15.8 percent), but they are also projected to have the second-largest increase in employment of all occupations with 267,700 new jobs added through 2034.

Meanwhile, the rising number, sophistication, and costs of cyberattacks has made cybersecurity a chief concern for enterprises of all sizes across many industries.³⁹ For example, the healthcare industry has witnessed a wave of data breaches in recent years, with the number of compromised healthcare records reaching an all-time high in 2024.⁴⁰ With cyberattack risks becoming larger and more complex, firms will continue to invest in cybersecurity services to protect their data and networks. This is expected to boost demand for information security analysts, who are projected to see employment growth of 28.5 percent from 2024 to 2034—making it the fastest growing computer occupation and fifth-fastest growing occupation overall. (See chart 5.)

The growing adoption of AI technologies, including generative AI tools, is another factor that will fuel strong job growth among computer and mathematical occupations. Firms in various industries will increasingly integrate AI-based systems into workflows to improve productivity and enhance operations.⁴¹ Developing, implementing, and leveraging these technologies will require expertise from workers trained in computer science, programming, software development, and data analysis. Therefore, demand for occupations such as data scientists, computer and information research scientists, and software developers is set to rise substantially over the coming years. For example, data scientists are projected to experience a 33.5-percent increase in employment between 2024 and 2034, making it the fastest growing mathematical science occupation and fourth-fastest growing occupation overall. Rapid job growth is expected for computer and information research scientists as well (19.7 percent), with the occupation ranking among the top-15 fastest growing occupations. (See chart 5.)

Furthermore, businesses will continue to invest in cloud computing and cloud-based services for various functions, such as data storage and management.⁴² Greater uptake of AI will only add to cloud computing demand, as AI systems often run on cloud infrastructure. Additionally, because training and deploying AI engines requires substantial amounts of computing power, the growing use of AI is set to significantly raise demand for data centers.⁴³ Altogether, strong demand for cloud and data processing services will create many job opportunities in the computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services industry. With projected employment growth of 20.3 percent over the 2024–34 decade, this industry ranks as the fastest growing industry in the information sector and ninth-fastest growing industry in the economy. (See chart 4.)

Tied to the increased use of AI is the massive increase in the volume of data generated, which is expected to fuel job growth among many mathematical science occupations. These workers will be in demand to help firms across a wide range of industries process and analyze data to identify trends and inform decision making. Relevant occupations include data scientists, actuaries, and operations research analysts, all of which are projected to see job growth of at least 20 percent between 2024 and 2034, placing them in the top-15 fastest growing occupations list. (See chart 5 and table 5.)

Education

The educational services sector makes up the third largest sector in the economy, with approximately 14.7 million jobs. Like with healthcare, demographic change is the predominant factor affecting projected demand. Declining birth rates are translating to fewer school-age children, and consequently little or no employment change (0.1-percent growth) is projected for the educational services sector. (See charts 2 and 10.)

For elementary and secondary schools, the biggest driver of employment demand is the decline in the population of children who attend these schools. Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent 2023 population projections, the population of the elementary and secondary education age group (ages 5 to 18) is projected to decline 6.7 percent from 2023 to 2033.⁴⁴ In turn, enrollment in elementary and secondary educational institutions is projected to decline 5.5 percent from 2023 to 2031.⁴⁵ With fewer children attending these schools, there will be reduced employment demand for teachers and other workers in K–12 schools. Employment in the local government elementary and secondary schools industry is projected to decline 2.5 percent from 2024 to 2034. With employment of 7.6 million as of 2024, this translates to a net job loss of 187,900 through 2034. Meanwhile, the private elementary and secondary schools industry, which employed approximately 1.2 million workers in 2024, is projected to decline by 0.4 percent over the projections period. Employment of elementary and middle school teachers is projected to decline 2.0 percent, while secondary school teachers will face a projected decline of 1.6 percent over the decade.

Demographic change is also affecting the 18- to 22-year-old age group, whose population is projected to decline 4.9 percent from 2023 to 2033.⁴⁶ However, this is expected to be outweighed by the rising share of that population seeking higher education degrees. This upward trend is expected to continue, and enrollment in in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to rise 6.8 percent from 2023 to 2031.⁴⁷ To meet this rising demand, employment at state colleges, universities, and professional schools is projected to grow by 5.2 percent, which is an approximate gain of 117,300 jobs. Employment at private colleges, universities, and professional schools is projected to grow at 0.4 percent, a slower rate than the state schools.

Alongside the employment growth in the state and private colleges, universities, and professional schools industries, postsecondary teacher occupations are expected to grow faster than average, at 5.9 percent. Health professions and related programs, engineering, and biological and biomedical sciences are top fields of undergraduate study.⁴⁸ These trends are expected to continue because of projected high demand for health-, engineering-, and biological- and biomedical-related occupations in the economy, which will support demand for postsecondary teacher occupations in these fields. Postsecondary health specialties teachers and postsecondary nursing instructors and teachers are projected to grow 17.3 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively. Demand for health specialty degrees is expected to remain robust, a result of the high demand for medical professionals across specialties. Also expected to grow at a much faster-than-average rate is the employment of both postsecondary engineering teachers (8.1 percent) and postsecondary biological science teachers (7.3 percent).

The private other schools and instruction industry, which ranks fifth in employment in the educational services sector, is expected to see strong employment growth for 2024–34. This is largely due to sports and recreation instruction, as rising societal interest in exercise and fitness drives demand for these types of lessons and classes.⁴⁹ This industry is projected to grow 7.0 percent over the projections decade. Occupations that teach these lessons include coaches and scouts and exercise trainers and group fitness instructors, which are projected to grow 6.4 percent and 11.9 percent from 2024 to 2034, respectively. (See table 6.)

Retail trade and transportation and warehousing

Employment in the retail trade sector is projected to decline between 2024 and 2034. (See chart 11.) Although 4 of 20 sectors are expected to see employment decreases over the projections decade, the decline in retail trade is by far the largest, shedding a total of 181,900 jobs. (See chart 2.) The bulk of the sector’s job losses, approximately 75 percent, are concentrated in the gasoline stations industry. The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market is the main factor expected to dampen employment demand in this industry. As EV sales continue to rise, the EV share of the total vehicle stock is expected to increase while the stock of internal combustion engine vehicles is expected to shrink.⁵⁰ With fewer internal combustion engine vehicles on the road, demand for fueling services at gas stations is likely to fall, resulting in job losses.

Excluding the auto and gas segments, the core factor expected to impact retail trade employment is continued e-commerce growth. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a boom in online shopping, with the e-commerce share of total retail sales jumping from 10.6 percent in 2019 to 14.5 percent in 2020. Although the share of e-commerce decreased as consumer spending patterns normalized, it soon resumed its upward trend to reach an all-time high of 16.1 percent in 2024.⁵¹ Going forward, it is largely expected that online sales will continue to grow and take up an increasing share of the retail market. This growth will impact some industries more than others, however. In particular, industries whose product categories face a high degree of online competition are expected to experience notable declines in employment. These include, for example, furniture and home furnishings retailers, sporting goods retailers, clothing and clothing accessories retailers, and electronics and appliance retailers—all of which have seen a relatively high level of online sales in recent years.⁵²

Retailers have deployed various strategies to keep pace with the growing online economy and shifting consumer behavior. One major tactic has been to adopt an omnichannel retail approach, with the goal of providing customers with a seamless and convenient shopping experience across online platforms and physical stores. One industry that stands out in this space is general merchandise retailers, which is projected to have the largest increase in jobs in the retail trade sector with 75,500 new positions added between 2024 and 2034. Firms within this industry, particularly warehouse clubs and supercenters, demonstrated resilience during the pandemic, in large part due to having deployed platforms that allowed consumers to buy online and pickup in store.⁵³

Today, e-commerce has become a key driver of business growth for mass merchants. For instance, they have been able to leverage their e-commerce infrastructure to significantly expand their presence in the online grocery market, taking market share away from traditional supermarkets.⁵⁴ In addition to their strong e-commerce platforms, these firms’ discounted price offerings, extensive product range including private label brands, customer loyalty programs, and overall value proposition to shoppers are factors that will drive business growth forward and boost industry employment.⁵⁵ At the same time, these factors have enabled mass retailers to position themselves as major players in the food retail market. This increasingly competitive environment is likely to put pressure on the grocery and specialty food retailers industry, which is projected to see employment fall over the 2024–34 decade. With 30,800 jobs lost, this industry is expected to experience the third-largest employment decline within the retail trade sector.

Sales and related occupations is the occupational group most closely tied to the retail trade sector. Thus, employment losses are expected as well, with the group projected to shed 297,800 net positions over 2024–34. (See chart 3.) These job losses will be primarily driven by cashiers, which is the occupation projected to experience the most job loss of any occupation—roughly 314,000—from 2024 to 2034. The increasing adoption of self-checkout systems across the retail industry is the main factor expected to constrain demand for these workers. Self-checkout reduces the need for labor because the main task of scanning and bagging items is transferred to the customer. And by having one cashier manage multiple stations, it allows the retailer to capture efficiency gains. ⁵⁶ Retail salespersons is another occupation whose employment is highly concentrated in retail trade industries. Therefore, they are expected to be similarly impacted by the growing popularity of online shopping as fewer in-store workers may be needed. Although not as stark as cashiers, retail salespersons are projected to shed close to 20,000 jobs over the projections decade.

Transportation and warehousing

Although e-commerce growth is expected to constrain retail trade employment, it will provide support to jobs in the logistics and distribution space—areas mostly covered by the transportation and warehousing sector. (See chart 12.) This sector is expected to experience average employment growth and add 198,800 jobs between 2024 and 2034, the seventh-largest increase of all 20 sectors. (See chart 2.) Most of those employment gains are concentrated in four industries: couriers and express delivery services, freight transportation arrangement, warehousing and storage, and local messengers and local delivery. Notably, the freight transportation arrangement industry is projected to grow 10.0 percent over the 2024–34 decade, the fastest of all industries in the transportation and warehousing sector.

The growth of online purchases translates into an increasing volume of packages that need delivery. The growing demand for product shipping and delivery, including perishable items like food and groceries, will support employment growth in both the couriers and express delivery services and local messengers and local delivery industries. Both of these industries are projected to see faster job growth than the average for the overall economy. At the same time, increasing freight activity will fuel demand for logistics management services, which is expected to result in strong job growth in the freight transportation arrangement industry.

The growing demand for e-commerce logistics is expected to result in rapid job gains for the following occupations: driver/sales workers, cargo and freight agents, stockers and order fillers, and light truck drivers. These workers are all projected to see employment grow much faster than the all-occupation average. Additionally, with the exception of cargo and freight agents, they are all concentrated in the transportation and material moving occupational group, which is projected to experience only average job growth between 2024 and 2034. Because of its size, however, it is expected to add the fifth-largest number of jobs of all 22 groups, with stockers and order fillers alone accounting for about 40 percent of the group’s 579,900 job gains over 2024–34.

Meanwhile, although the expansion of e-commerce is set to raise demand for warehousing and storage services, relatively weaker job growth is expected in this industry. This is because warehousing firms are increasingly implementing automation solutions to operate more efficiently, such as warehouse management systems, automated guided vehicles, robots, and AI-based systems.⁵⁷ The productivity gains stemming from the adoption of these technologies are expected to limit labor demand and thus lead to slower-than-average employment growth in the warehousing and storage services industry from 2024 to 2034. (See table 7.)

Projections methodology

Projected total employment is determined in large part by projected changes in the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force. These aggregate projections are used to develop output and employment projections by industry, which form the basis for occupational employment projections.⁵⁸

BLS produces occupational employment projections by analyzing current and future staffing patterns (the distribution of occupations within an industry) in an industry–occupation matrix. Changes in the staffing pattern for each industry are projected and applied to the final industry projections, which yield detailed occupational projections by industry. This projected employment matrix, known as the National Employment Matrix, includes estimates for 832 detailed occupations across 292 detailed industries published by the Employment Projections program.

This article highlights the expected changes to industry and occupational employment over the 2024–34 decade and the likely reasons for those changes. The employment projections for the occupations that are featured in this article represent the total employment change for workers across the economy. Many of these occupations may have a high concentration of employment in specific industries. Therefore, the trends expected to affect employment in those specific industries largely drive the employment changes projected across these occupations. However, the employment outlook of occupations can also be influenced by factors specific to an occupation or by trends affecting other industries in which the workers in the occupation are employed. Similarly, the impact of technological developments and trends is just one facet of the outlook for the industries and occupations discussed above. In some cases, these technological developments and trends may be the main drivers of change over the projection horizon; in other cases, it may be one factor among many.

Projections methods are heavily based on historical relationships in the data. Nevertheless, BLS also conducts research on factors that are expected to affect employment, which may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies and legislation. BLS generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, such as when there is convincing evidence for a change in projections. BLS issues new projections annually to incorporate new data, research, and analysis. The analysis in this article reflects the research that BLS uses to develop and validate its projections.

Recent rapid developments in AI have raised the prospect that the future rate of technological progress could be faster than the historical pattern. The uncertainty about the potential impacts of AI remains very high. Projections always carry a degree of uncertainty, and the exact effect of developments, such as new technologies, on the labor market 10 years in the future is impossible to predict with precision. The historical record does show that technology impacts occupations, but that these technological changes tend to be gradual and not sudden.⁵⁹ Occupations are complex combinations of tasks, and even when technology advances rapidly, it can take time for employers and workers to figure out how to incorporate new technology into business practices. New technologies may change the composition or weighting of tasks performed by an occupation even if they do not impact overall demand for an occupation.

Similarly, changes in governmental policy can affect demand for occupations and industries. Factors such as funding levels, tax incentives, and regulations can alter employment demand patterns. While there will undoubtedly be changes to these over a 10-year period, BLS does not project policy change—instead, projections are based on current law. Employment effects from funding or regulation are generally applied to the matrix after being observed in the historical data. Like with the approach to technology, while research-based changes may be applied before historical data has accumulated, such adjustments are generally applied conservatively, and new projections are released annually to account for the latest data and analysis.

Conclusion

The sectors projected to see the fastest employment growth for 2024–34 are healthcare and social assistance and professional, scientific, and technical services. Combined, these two sectors account for more than half of the projected job gains for the economy overall. An aging population and an increasing prevalence of chronic disease and behavioral health disorders are expected to fuel job growth among industries and occupations that provide healthcare and related services. Meanwhile, strong demand for a wide range of information technology products and services is expected to drive rapid and substantial job gains in computer systems design and related services, which will contribute to fast job growth among computer and mathematical occupations. Several other professional services are projected to see fast growth, including management, scientific, and technical consulting services, and scientific research and development.

The continued development of artificial intelligence technologies is expected to boost productivity and therefore reduce employment demand for a variety of occupations, including in arts and design, sales, and administrative support. Conversely, demand for AI technologies boosts employment demand for computer occupations involved in its development and implementation.

In addition to healthcare, demographic change is also affecting the trajectory for educational services. Lower birth rates translate to fewer school-age children, and therefore declining employment in elementary and secondary schools.

The growth of e-commerce is expected to reduce demand for brick-and-mortar retail and conversely support employment growth in transportation and warehousing. Within retail trade, general merchandise retailers are projected to see some employment growth due to their ability to compete on price and offer omnichannel sales options.