This page addresses the effects of the 2025 federal government shutdown on the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE). The Census Bureau collects CE data for BLS in two surveys: the Interview Survey for major and/or recurring items and the Diary Survey for more minor or frequently purchased items.
Federal government agencies were shut down or operating at reduced staffing levels during a lapse in appropriations from October 1, 2025, through November 12, 2025.
We will update this page as more information becomes available.
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1. How does the 2025 lapse in appropriations impact the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) and spending weights for the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
Due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations, Census could not collect Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) data in October and November 2025. The Census Bureau conducts CE data collection for BLS. Census resumed collection of the CE on December 5, 2025.
These missing data impact the 2025 annual CE release, final revisions of the 2025 chained CPI-U indexes, and 2027 CPI-U and CPI-W indexes which will use 2025 CE data as spending weights. For a comprehensive list of resources and information relating to the 2025 lapse in appropriations, see the webpage 2025 Federal Government Lapse in Appropriations Impact on the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
2. How were data collected in the CE Interview Survey impacted?
The Interview Survey captures spending on major expenses using a 3-month recall design. Therefore, even though no data were collected in October and November, expenditures for those months were collected in later months. For example, those interviewed in December 2025 reported expenditures that occurred in September, October, and November of 2025. However, due to the lapse in appropriations, the lack of data collection in October and November resulted in fewer reported expenditures in July through September. BLS estimates that approximately 33 percent fewer expenditures were reported for July and October, and 66 percent fewer expenditures were reported for August and September.
3. How were data collected in the CE Diary Survey impacted?
The Diary Survey captures spending during a two-week period using two consecutive weekly diaries. For the Diary Survey, no data were collected in October and November, which resulted in missing data for those months in 2025. Response rates were also lower than usual in September because field staff could not pick up the completed surveys in October.
4. What adjustments did BLS make to account for the missing data?
BLS used a weight adjustment approach to account for the missing 2025 data. For the Interview Survey, BLS weighted expenditure reports impacted by the lapse in appropriations to represent a full month of spending. BLS adjusted the 1/3 fewer expenditures in July and October 2025 by 3 and the 2/3 fewer expenditures in August and September 2025 by 3/2. (See FAQ #2 for more information about the estimated reduction in reported Interview Survey expenditures.)
Diary Survey data are missing entirely from October and November 2025. To fill this gap, September and December 2025 weights were doubled to represent missing October and November 2025 data.
5. What alternative adjustments did BLS consider?
BLS considered other statistical techniques to account for the missing respondent expenditures. BLS could have used patterns in the data to fill in what was missing for every consumer unit (unit level). However, there is limited information about the consumer units that were not interviewed (especially for the Diary Survey). To implement this approach, extensive research is needed to gather supplemental information and identify patterns that explain the missing data.
BLS also considered using patterns over time to account for the missing data in CE estimates. For example, seasonal patterns could impact spending on the CE estimates for poultry or toys during the period impacted by the lapse in appropriations. BLS looked at how well these alternatives functioned when tested on 2024 data, which had no missing data. With further research, these methods could produce accurate adjustments to address the missing data. However, BLS concluded these methods would delay the publication schedule because additional time would be needed to research and implement the complex methods. For more information, see the article on BLS handling of missing data to produce 2025 consumer spending estimates and use in price indexes products.
6. How did BLS decide which adjustments to apply?
BLS determined criteria to evaluate options for addressing the missing data. The selected option should mitigate the impact on estimate accuracy in the face of missing data. BLS must also be able to extensively test the selected option to ensure quality assurance standards are met. BLS sought feedback on the options from expert panels organized by the National Association for Business Economics and the Committee on National Statistics. Both panels stressed the importance of timely data publication. They concluded the weight adjustment approach was the preferred method. A benefit of weight adjustment is that it is the only method that ensured 2025 data could be published on schedule. This is because the weight adjustment method can be implemented with the least change to the data production systems and lowest operational risk.
7. How will these adjustments impact estimates of consumer spending?
According to simulations using historical data, BLS expects estimates of 2025 spending will be accurate with increased variances due to the smaller sample size. BLS will flag estimates that do not meet data quality thresholds, for example low sample size or high standard errors relative to the mean value. However, there will not be any way to measure the true effect of the missing data in 2025 without known expenditure data available for comparison.
8. Will these adjustments be applied to CE public use microdata?
BLS will not apply the weight adjustments to the CE public use microdata (PUMD). BLS will offer guidance for users who want to apply weight adjustments to the PUMD. Before the release of 2025 annual consumer spending data on October 29, 2026, BLS will update the PUMD Getting Started Guide with further information on how to replicate BLS annual estimates with the missing data factors applied.
9. How will these adjustments impact the CPI?
BLS will use the weight adjustment method to produce spending weights for the CPI. Because the formula used to calculate the final C-CPI-U index requires monthly spending weights, BLS must adjust the Diary Survey data differently for the C-CPI-U than for the CE estimates. Rather than applying an adjustment to September and December weights, BLS will create October weights as a copy of September weights, and November weights as a copy of December weights.
The C-CPI-U data for quarter three and quarter four of 2025 will use monthly weights adjusted for the missing data. This is not expected to negatively impact accuracy of the data.
10. Will there be any impacts to the scheduled publication dates for the 2025 annual expenditures and 2027 CPI weight update?
BLS plans to release the final C-CPU-U estimates, CE annual data, and 2027 CPI weight update as scheduled. The 2025 CE annual expenditures and PUMD will be published as scheduled on October 29, 2026. BLS plans to publish final estimates of the C-CPI-U for July through September 2025 on August 12, 2026, and October through December 2025 on November 10, 2026. The 2027 CPI weight update is expected to be released in February of 2027.
11. What steps is BLS taking to improve methods to address missing data in the future?
BLS continues to research methods to improve estimates in the face of missing data and declining response rates. IT infrastructure and software systems continue to be modernized to reduce system limitations. BLS aims to introduce greater flexibility to accommodate methods to address problems of large-scale missing data, like those experienced in 2025, should they occur in the future.
Last modified date: July 30, 2026
United States Department of Labor