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Employment Projections

Macro Projections Evaluation: 2004–2014

Gross Domestic Product, historical and projected

Year

BLS Projection

Actual

Potential

Naïve Projection

1994

9905.4

10023.1

1995

10174.8

10319.0

1996

10561.0

10633.8

1997

11034.9

11010.3

1998

11525.9

11457.0

1999

12065.9

11933.6

2000

12559.7

12409.4

2001

12682.2

12860.6

2002

12908.8

13244.6

2003

13271.1

13584.7

2004

13773.5

13926.0

2005

14234.2

14272.6

2006

14613.8

14578.7

2007

14873.7

14843.6

2008

14830.4

15098.3

2009

14418.7

15310.3

2010

14783.8

15457.0

2011

15020.6

15615.8

2012

15354.6

15815.5

2013

15612.2

16049.4

2014

17499.5

16013.3

16305.7

18319.2

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office, and 2004–14 Bureau of Labor Statistics Projections.

Data as of March 29, 2018.

Unemployment rate

Year

BLS Projection

Actual Unemployment Rate

Potential (NAIRU)

1994

6.1

5.4

1995

5.6

5.3

1996

5.4

5.2

1997

4.9

5.1

1998

4.5

5.1

1999

4.2

5.0

2000

4.0

5.0

2001

4.7

5.0

2002

5.8

5.0

2003

6.0

5.0

2004

5.5

5.0

2005

5.1

5.0

2006

4.6

5.0

2007

4.6

4.9

2008

5.8

4.9

2009

9.3

5.0

2010

9.6

5.1

2011

8.9

5.1

2012

8.1

5.1

2013

7.4

5.0

2014

5.0

6.2

4.9

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, Congressional Budget Office, and 2004–14 Bureau of Labor Statistics Projections.

Data as of March 29, 2018.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018