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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Industry Projections Evaluation: 2006–2016

BLS estimated models for roughly 200 detailed industries that were then summed to sectors and major sectors¹. Detailed industry projections were constrained to sum to the total nonfarm wage and salary employment provided by the macroeconomic model.

Changes to the industry classification system presented a challenge in evaluating these sets of projections. Therefore, BLS analyzed only the 16 aggregate industry major sectors rather than the detailed industries published within the projections publications. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for industries?

BLS correctly projected which major industry would grow and which would decline 63 percent of the time.

The service–producing sector, representing over 80 percent of U.S. employment, was correctly projected to experience continued growth over the 2006–16 decade. However, within the service sectors, Information, Financial Activities, and Wholesale Trade were all expected to increase, but instead had slight declines and Federal Government, and Utilities were expected to decrease, but instead had slight gains. BLS correctly expected that the goods–producing sector would decline, however, BLS expected construction to grow, which instead declined.

What did BLS project as the nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2006 to 2016?

The projected compound annual growth rate from 2006 to 2016 was 1.0 percent.

What was the actual nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2006 to 2016?

The actual compound annual growth rate from 2006 to 2016 was 0.6 percent.

What contributed to the difference?

Since the macroeconomic model overprojected U.S. employment, industry sectors also tended to be projected higher than what was realized.

For each of the following measures the BLS projection was compared against this naïve model.

Table 1. All industry absolute percent error, 2006—16
Sector	Actual 2016 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute Percent Error		Best Performer
Sector	Actual 2016 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best Performer
Nonfarm W&S	145,028	151,962	149,658	5%	3%	Naïve

The naïve model outperformed the BLS model for total nonagriculture wage and salary employment. However, the BLS model outperformed the naïve model in the majority of the major sectors in the absolute percent error measurement. The major sectors where the BLS model did not outperform the naïve model are Wholesale Trade, Information, Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Hospitality.

Table 2. Absolute percent error by major sector, 2006—16
Sector	Actual 2016 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute Percent Error		Best Performer
Sector	Actual 2016 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best Performer
Mining	617	609	559	1%	9%	BLS
Construction	6,728	8,470	9,326	26%	39%	BLS
Manufacturing	12,354	12,695	9,797	3%	21%	BLS
Utilities	556	518	465	7%	16%	BLS
Wholesale trade	5,861	6,326	5,883	8%	0%	Naïve
Retail trade	15,826	16,006	16,353	1%	3%	BLS
Transportation and warehousing	5,015	4,962	4,765	1%	5%	BLS
Information	2,794	3,267	3,179	17%	14%	Naïve
Financial activities	8,287	9,570	9,565	15%	15%	Naïve
Professional and business services	20,052	21,644	20,542	8%	2%	Naïve
Educational services	3,570	3,527	3,802	1%	7%	BLS
Health care and social assistance	19,069	18,954	18,187	1%	5%	BLS
Leisure and hospitality	15,660	15,017	15,215	4%	3%	Naïve
Other services	6,415	7,077	7,141	10%	11%	BLS
Federal government	2,795	2,626	2,605	6%	7%	BLS
State and local government	19,429	20,696	22,276	7%	15%	BLS

Share analysis

Since aggregate employment was overprojected, detailed industries also tended to be overprojected. Comparing the projected share of the labor market with the actual share helps to address whether BLS correctly advised career-seeking customers which industry to pursue. BLS was more accurate than the naïve model in only eight of the sixteen major sectors.

View Chart Data

Note

¹Sectors and major sectors are aggregations of NAICS industries.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018