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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Industry Projections Evaluation: 2008–2018

BLS estimated models for roughly 200 detailed industries that were then summed to sectors and major sectors¹. Detailed industry projections were constrained to sum to the total nonfarm wage and salary employment provided by the macroeconomic model.

Changes to the industry classification system presented a challenge in evaluating these sets of projections. Therefore, BLS analyzed only the 16 aggregate industry major sectors rather than the detailed industries published within the projections publications. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for industries?

BLS correctly projected which major industry would grow and which would decline 81 percent of the time.

The service-producing sector, representing over 80 percent of U.S. employment, was correctly projected to experience continued growth over the 2008-18 decade. However, within the service sectors, Information, State and Local Government, and Wholesale Trade were all expected to increase, but instead had slight declines. While BLS incorrectly predicted that the goods-producing sector as a whole would increase, BLS correctly predicted the direction of the sectors within the goods-producing sector. As predicted, employment in the Manufacturing and Mining sectors declined and employment in the Construction sector increased.

What did BLS project as the nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2008 to 2018?

The projected compound annual growth rate from 2008 to 2018 was 1.0 percent.

What was the actual nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2008 to 2018?

The actual compound annual growth rate from 2008 to 2018 was 0.8 percent.

What contributed to the difference?

Since the macroeconomic model overprojected U.S. employment, industry sectors also tended to be projected higher than what was realized.

For each of the following measures the BLS projection was compared against this naïve model.

Table 1. All industry absolute percent error, 2008-18
Sector	Actual 2018 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute percent error		Best performer
Sector	Actual 2018 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Nonagriculture wage and salary	149,804	152,444	151,353	2%	1%	Naïve

The Naïve model outperformed the BLS model for total nonagriculture wage and salary employment. However, the BLS model outperformed the Naïve model in the majority of the major sectors in the absolute percent error measurement. The major sectors where the BLS model did not outperform the Naïve model are Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Professional and Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Other Services.

Table 2. Absolute percent error by major sector, 2008-18
Sector	Actual 2018 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute percent error		Best performer
Sector	Actual 2018 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Mining	683	613	801	10%	17%	BLS
Construction	7,289	8,552	8,828	17%	21%	BLS
Manufacturing	12,689	12,225	8,609	4%	32%	BLS
Utilities	555	501	474	10%	15%	BLS
Wholesale Trade	5,853	6,220	5,984	6%	2%	Naïve
Retail Trade	15,833	16,010	16,001	1%	1%	Naïve
Transportation and Warehousing	5,419	4,950	4,730	9%	13%	BLS
Information	2,828	3,115	2,451	10%	13%	BLS
Financial Activities	8,569	8,703	9,148	2%	7%	BLS
Professional and Business Services	21,000	21,968	20,055	5%	4%	Naïve
Educational Services	3,728	3,842	3,861	3%	4%	BLS
Health Care and Social Assistance	19,939	19,816	22,841	1%	15%	BLS
Leisure and Hospitality	16,349	14,601	15,714	11%	4%	Naïve
Other Services	6,622	7,142	6,967	8%	5%	Naïve
Federal Government	2,796	2,859	2,670	2%	5%	BLS
State and Local Government	19,653	21,327	22,219	9%	13%	BLS

Share analysis

Since aggregate employment was overprojected, detailed industries also tended to be overprojected. Comparing the projected share of the labor market with the actual share helps to address whether BLS correctly advised career-seeking customers which industry to pursue. BLS was more accurate than the naïve model in twelve of the sixteen major sectors.

Share in percent of employment by major sector: historical base year 2006, projected Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016, and actual 2016

View Chart Data

Note

¹Sectors and major sectors are aggregations of NAICS industries.

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Last Modified Date: March 16, 2020