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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Industry Projections Evaluation: 2012–2022

BLS estimated models for roughly 200 detailed industries that were then summed to sectors and major sectors.¹ Detailed industry projections were constrained to sum to the total nonfarm wage and salary employment provided by the macroeconomic model.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for industries?

BLS correctly projected which major sectors would grow and which would decline 75 percent of the time.

The service-providing sector, representing over 80 percent of U.S. employment, was correctly projected to experience continued growth over the 2012–22 decade. Within the service sectors, 11 sectors were correctly projected to grow or decline; however, information and federal government were both expected to decrease, but instead experienced growth. While BLS correctly predicted that the goods-producing sector as a whole would increase, BLS incorrectly predicted that mining would slightly increase, and manufacturing would slightly decrease. Instead, mining saw an employment decline, and manufacturing saw employment growth. Construction was correctly projected to grow.

What did BLS project as the nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2012 to 2022?

The projected compound annual growth rate from 2012 to 2022 was 1.1 percent.

What was the actual nonagriculture wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2012 to 2022?

The actual compound annual growth rate from 2012 to 2022 was 1.3 percent.

For each of the following measures the BLS projection was compared against this naïve model.

Table 1. All industry absolute percent error, 2012–22 (Numbers in thousands)
Sector	Actual 2022 employment	Employment projection		Absolute percent error		Best performer
Sector	Actual 2022 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Nonagriculture wage and salary	153,186	149,751	135,417	2%	12%	BLS

The BLS model was much closer to the actual 2022 employment than the Naïve model for total nonagriculture wage and salary employment. (See Table 1.) The BLS model also outperformed the Naïve model in most of the major sectors in the absolute percent error measurement. (See Table 2.) The major sectors where the BLS model did not outperform the Naïve model are utilities, educational services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, other services, and federal government.

Table 2. Absolute percent error by major sector, 2012–22 (Numbers in thousands)
Sector	Actual 2022 employment	Employment projection		Absolute percent error		Best performer
Sector	Actual 2022 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Mining	560	922	1,044	65%	86%	BLS
Construction	7,748	7,263	4,216	6%	46%	BLS
Manufacturing	12,826	11,369	7,657	11%	40%	BLS
Utilities	554	498	517	10%	7%	Naïve
Wholesale trade	5,963	6,143	5,559	3%	7%	BLS
Retail trade	15,475	15,966	14,288	3%	8%	BLS
Transportation and warehousing	6,651	4,742	4,476	29%	33%	BLS
Information	3,074	2,612	1,955	15%	36%	BLS
Financial activities	9,045	8,537	7,553	6%	16%	BLS
Professional and business services	22,572	21,413	19,134	5%	15%	BLS
Educational services	3,795	4,022	4,001	6%	5%	Naïve
Health care and social assistance	20,555	21,966	20,570	7%	0%	Naïve
Leisure and hospitality	15,835	15,035	15,156	5%	4%	Naïve
Other services	6,363	6,823	6,082	7%	4%	Naïve
Federal government	2,869	2,407	3,009	16%	5%	Naïve
State and local government	19,302	20,032	20,199	4%	5%	BLS

Share analysis

Comparing the projected share of the labor market with the actual share helps to address whether BLS correctly advised career-seeking customers which industry to pursue. (See Chart 1.)

View Chart Data

Note

¹Sectors and major sectors are aggregations of NAICS industries.

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Last Modified Date: January 19, 2024